Friday, 17 January 2014

Heineken Cup Preview - Leicester Tigers v Ulster



Home advantage.  Is it really that important?  In the modern, professional, game, where players haven't necessarily always lived within a 3 miles radius of the club they play for, does it really matter?  After all, rugby is a game played on a pitch with 2 sets of posts no matter where you play.  Except, rugby is so much more than that.  At its best, it is full-blooded emotional war – acute physical and mental conflict between two teams of supreme athletes, roared on with a thunderous tribal passion by those surrounding the pitch.  The Heineken Cup serves up occasions such as these on a regular basis, but few can match the intensity of the Saturday night clash in the final round of the group stages, where the mentality of the players and the atmosphere takes on an almost gladiatorial mood.  And tomorrow – when Leicester meet Ulster for home advantage in the Heineken Cup, Welford Road is the Colosseum.

Both sides have already qualified for the quarter finals of the competition through their superior points tally, but home advantage in the knockout stages  is all riding on the outcome of this match.  And that means that both sides will be going flat out for the win.  Why?  It's not just because, as a player, you get an extra lie-in instead of having to travel, avoid flying on Ryanair and get to stick with the local cuisine that, so far, hasn't sent you scurrying in panic to the throne with 10 minutes to kick off.  No, it's the emotion and passion you generate from playing in front of your home fans – no matter where you originate from, once you pull on that shirt, you become one of their own.  It becomes almost tribal in nature.  Think I'm talking nonsense?  Take a look at Clermont Auvergne, unbeaten at home in 72 games.  That is their fortress; where they are invincible.  Yet away from home, they look vulnerable.  For Leicester and Ulster, two sides with their own fortresses in Welford Road and Ravenhill, the opportunity to play a home quarter final is one neither team wants to let slip.

Much of the build-up for this game has been focussed on Ulster's superior quality and form.  And it's hard to argue with the form issue – a gritty win against Leicester in the opening round was followed by a mesmeric  bonus-point win in France, a relaxing 10 points against Treviso and a comfortable – if not perfect – win against Montpellier.  They are the only unbeaten side left in Europe, and you can see why.  With a gargantuan pack, driven onwards by the inspiration Johann Muller and given bite by the human wrecking-balls of John Afoa, Dan Tuohy and Nick Williams, Ulster have the capacity to send wave after wave of physical runners into the opposition until they crumble.  They have one of the best kick-chase games in the tournament too, with Ruan Pienaar and Paddy Jackson placing back threes under all sorts of pressure to gain the territory from which they can launch another physical assault.  Ulster rugby is characterised as old-school in the best possible sense – a pack of hard, physical men who want nothing more than to dominate their opposite numbers and a pair of shrewd half backs to tell them where to go (in case they get lost – it's difficult for forwards).

Leicester, on the other hand, haven't been quite as impressive but – being Leicester – are still right in the mix and, importantly, winning games.  Following their opening loss to Ulster, the Tigers played a thriller against Montpellier at home, sneaked a win in France by one point, and stuttered their way to 2 bonus point wins against Treviso.  It hasn't always been pretty, but the Tigers do not know when to quit and, on their day, can put together displays of such pace and power that they can turn over anybody.  Unfortunately, their 'best' has only come in dribs and drabs this season, and often they have to be spurred into life by being forced to chase a game.  Richard Cockerill will know that his men cannot afford to do this against Ulster though, and he will be looking for his side to play at a high tempo in the Ulster half, with Ben Youngs and Toby Flood threatening the gainline and fringe-defence, with powerful runners like Tom Youngs, Graham Kitchener and Niki Goneva picking smart angles off their shoulders.  Once the Leicester machine gets motoring, it is incredibly hard to stop – and once the home support at Welford Road gets their voice up, they're very hard to keep quiet.

There are mouth-watering battles all over the pitch, from Ayerza v Afoa and Tom Youngs v Best, to Ben Youngs v Pienaar and Goneva v Gilroy.  For me, in contrast to what some of the press seem to be saying, these sides are very evenly matched, and a win is most likely going to come down to how Leicester deal with bombs from Pienaar and Jackson, and whether or not Ulster can withstand the intense pressure they will come under at the set piece.  It is shaping up to be a stunning encounter in a cauldron of electricity, and this should be helped by the fact that the referee, Nigel Owens, is the best in the business in allowing games to flow, accepting no nonsense and – to the relief of Ulster fans – ignoring pressures from the home crowd.

The stage is set.  By Saturday night, only one side will be able to rely on their fortress in the knock-out stages.  The final-battle for the Heineken Cup may be a little way off, but the siege of Welford Road is about to begin.



Leicester Tigers Team News

Richard Cockerill has made 8 changes – 2 positional – to the side that picked up a bonus point win in Treviso last week.  Inside centre Allen and hooker Tom Youngs are recalled to the Leicester starting line-up, with Tigers vice-captain Allen joined by Matt Smith in the midfield, with captain Toby Flood moving from the 12 to the 10 shirt.  Vereniki Goneva moves out to the left wing in place of Miles Benjamin who has a knee injury while club captain Toby Flood reverts to the fly-half role instead of Owen Williams.  In the pack, Tom Youngs returns to the front-row, while Graham Kitchener and Ed Slater form a second-row partnership after also missing the trip to Italy.  Jordan Crane returns to the number eight shirt ahead of Thomas Waldrom.

Starting Line-up: 15 Tait, 14 Morris, 13 Smith, 12 Allen, 11 Goneva, 10 Flood (c), 9 Youngs; 1 Marcos Ayerza, 2 Tom Youngs, 3 Dan Cole, 4 Ed Slater, 5 Graham Kitchener, 6 Jamie Gibson, 7 Julian Salvi, 8 Jordan Crane.
Subs: 16 Hawkins, 17 Stankovich, 18 Balmain, 19 Deacon, 20 Mafi, 21 Mélé, 22 Williams, 23 Hamilton.

Key Player

Tom Youngs.  The Leicester, England and Lions hooker has fast cemented himself as one of the European game's best in his position, and he'll have a big battle on his hands against the experienced and highly rated Rory Best.  If the word "chode" could at all be used in a complementary manner, it would be used for the Leicester man, who has a physique of a square on legs – with a low centre of gravity and surprising turn of pace which makes him one of the best carriers and most aggressive defenders around.  But it's his set piece which will come under the most scrutiny on Saturday.  Despite having the joint best lineout record in the competition (at 91%), he will be under a huge amount of pressure at throw-in time from an experienced and intelligent Ulster pack.  Add to this the fact that Mr Best, who lost out to Youngs in the battle for a Lions Test spot, will be offering some choice words of 'encouragement' at every available opportunity, and Saturdays match quickly becomes one of the biggest tests yet for the older Youngs brother.  If he can maintain his composure in the set piece – an area in which Leicester will hope to hold the upper hand – then he can set his hosts the ideal platform from which to build their pressure game.



Ulster Team News

Ulster hooker Rory Best will make his 150th appearance for the province and will line up alongside John Afoa and Callum Black, who makes his first start in the Heineken Cup.  The inclusion of Black is one of two changes to the team that defeated Montpellier at Ravenhill last week. The other sees Roger Wilson selected at blindside with Robbie Diack moving to the bench. Williams starts at number eight, with Chris Henry picked at openside.  Craig Gilroy has recovered from the injury that he sustained against Montpellier and starts on the left wing with Andrew Trimble named on the right and Jared Payne continuing at 15.

Starting Line-up:  15 Jared Payne, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Darren Cave, 12 Luke Marshall, 11 Craig Gilroy, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Nick Williams, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Roger Wilson, 5 Dan Tuohy, 4 Johann Muller (capt), 3 John Afoa, 2 Rory Best, 1 Callum Black.
Subs: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Tom Court, 18 Ricky Lutton, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Robbie Diack, 21 Paul Marshall, 22 David McIlwaine, 23 Michael Allen.

Key Player

Paddy Jackson.  There's no doubting the young fly half's skillset – nor the attacking ability and intent of those outside him – but to win at Welford Road the Irish province will be looking to their 10 to put the ball in the correct areas of the park and put up high kicks that are there to be chased.  He did this with aplomb against Leicester in the fixture at Ravenhill, putting ideal length on the kicks and using the swirling wind to make life miserable for the often-butter-fingered Niki Goneva and Miles Benjamin, who was making his first start for over a year following a neck injury.  This time, Mr "safe-hands" Niall Morris is one wing, and Mathew Tait – who has looked very assured following his return from injury – starts at 15, but Goneva is still a potential target for one of Jackson's expert "bombs".  The problem is that, this time, he will have to do it with a resurgent Leicester defence hounding his every move and the Welford Road faithful making every effort to get into his head – he kicks too far, and Leicester deal with it easily, he kicks too short, and the pressure ends up on Ulster.  But if, like Baby Bear, he gets it just right, then there is a potential opening for Jackson and Andrew Trimble to exploit – and there are few better at doing so.



Key Battle

Ben Youngs v Ruan Pienaar.  Two top-class scrum halves, but whilst one has been setting the world alight, the other has found himself in a bit of rut.  Yes, Youngs junior looked jaded upon return from the Lions tour and, although his performances of late have been decent (and are still picking up), they are still someway short of what we all know he is capable of.  In a game where tempo and tactical awareness will be key, Youngs will need to maintain his excellent box-kicking game, whilst seeking to inject the urgency that stood him out when he first arrived on the scene.  His last 15 minutes against Montepellier in France were a masterclass of attacking scrum half play – he will need to bring out this game for 80 minutes on Saturday.  His opponent, the South African Pienaar, is an experienced veteran who has – on more than one occasion – looked like he is single-handedly driving Ulster to victory.  With one of the sharpest brains in the business and a wonderful pass, he has long been ranked as one of the worlds-best, despite not being as quick as some of his counterparts – Youngs included.  With two powerful sets of forwards and talented backlines on show tomorrow, the battle of the 9s for fluency, tempo and territory will be absolutely critical.  Keep an eye out as well for the all-out-war between Julian Salvi and Chris Henry for supremacy at the breakdown.


Prediction

Ulster fans generally believe that they have the better team on paper, and whilst I don't agree entirely, it is certainly an impressive line-up for the men in white with a wonderful balance of power and speed throughout the side.  For me, Leicester just have the edge in the front row, and Ulster have the edge at 9 and 10, but that aside I think it is pretty much evens.  What the teams on paper don't show, however, is the Welford Road factor.  An evening kick off means the crowd will be in full voice by the time "Smoke on the Water" echoes round the stadium and the fans begin to stamp their feet as the Tigers run out – this is the occasion that Leicester players – and fans – live for.  In the same way that Ravenhill does for Ulster, Welford Road takes the Premiership Champions to another level – especially in Europe.  It all adds together to what should be an unbelievable atmosphere and potentially an explosive night of Heineken Cup rugby at its best.  It will be a ferocious forwards battle and a fascinating tactical clash, but I can see the Leicester scrum and home crowd earning the hosts the narrowest of victories.  Tigers by 3.

 

What else is happening in the Heineken Cup this weekend?

 
Pool 1:  Leinster should seal a quarter final spot by beating the Ospreys tonight, whilst Northampton will book themselves an Amlin Cup spot by beating Castres at home.

Pool 2:  Cardiff can be confident of picking up a home win against an out-of-sorts Exeter tonight, and Toulon should despatch of Glasgow relatively comfortably, despite playing away from home.

Pool 3:  There should be bonus point wins for Toulouse and Saracens on Saturday against Zebre and Connacht respectively, which would provide both sides with a spot in the last 8, although the Irish side have ambitions of their own so will be going all out for the win.  

Pool 4:  Clermont should have no problem overcoming the woeful Racing Metro at home, whilst Harlequins could sneak a win and salvage some pride by winning in Llanelli against the Scarlets.

Pool 5:  The other match in Pool 4 is a dead rubber in which Montpellier will be expecting to turn Ulster over with relative ease.

Pool 6:  Both Munster and Perpignan will be confident of victories at home against Edinburgh and Gloucester respectively on Sunday.

 
Predicted Quarter Final Line Ups:

Toulon (1st seeds) v Saracens (8th)

Toulouse (2nd) v Ulster (7th)

Clermont Auvergne (3rd) v Leinster (6th)

Leicester Tigers (4th) v Munster (5th)

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