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| The Captains of the Six Nations look forward to weekends with the family |
Another year, another 6 Nations.
It seems these days there are very few certainties in life, especially in the current wobbly economic climate. Will I be able to one day afford a house? Do bankers really know more about my money than I do? Did anyone actually watch that diving show with Tom Daley? Thankfully, the 6 nations is one of the few things we can rely on. It’s 2 months of edge of your seat drama, first class rugby and many beers shared over friendly rivalries. Or at least, that is the version proclaimed by the BBC in their cringe-inducing pre-tournament advertisements. All nationalities in one room watching the game? Check. At least one ethnic minority? Check. It goes on.
To be fair, the first two points resonate as partly true, in that we are sure to be treated to moments of nerve shredding tension and the odd flash of unadulterated brilliance, but the fact is we will also be fed offensive amounts of turgid kick-tennis and mud wrestling as occasionally demanded by the bizarrely temperamental European weather. And the friendly rivalries? Come on. Try telling the Scots, Welsh, or anyone else for that matter that the matches against the English are not borderline life or death situations, with the honour of both nations hanging on the result. I’m not saying there will be punch ups – but let’s face it, nothing is more satisfying than getting one over on your neighbours and earning the right to gloat about it for another year. This is tribal passion at its best. And the best thing is: it happens every year. And in the current climate that’s one certainty we can be grateful for.
Wales
Coach: Warren Gatland
Captain: Sam Warburton
Last Season: 1st
Strengths: The fact that their backline appear to be descended from a family of bulldozers. Leigh Halfpenny aside – who looks like Bilbo Baggins next to his teammates – the centres and wingers encapsulate what this Welsh side are all about...power. It’s no secret that Gatland likes a direct, physical approach, and who can blame him when he has 2 six-foot-five wingers at his disposal and Jamie Roberts and Scott Williams ‘prancing’ about in the centres. Combined with a solid set piece and an intelligent back row, the Welsh juggernaut can be hard to stop when it gets going.
Weaknesses: They’re pretty strong all over park, but if you were going to pick one potentially weak link, it’s at half-back. Mike Phillips is a very decent player when he’s not pre-occupied with pulling silly faces at his opposite number, but for me he’s been living off his 2009 form for too long. His appalling box-kicking was one of the chief reasons Wales lost to Australia in the autumn, and with some pretty dangerous back 3s lurking around in this year’s championship, he has to make sure he’s on the money now. His partner, Rhys Priestland, is another talented individual but is known for being flakier than an over-baked croissant.
What’s the deal?: I can’t make up my mind about this Welsh team. 8 consecutive losses, then an outstanding Championship victory last year – it’s all a bit confusing for us simple types. There’s also a nagging doubt that, as shown by an average Australian outfit 3 months ago, that they struggle to put teams away in a tight contest when the pressure’s on. All that said, though, they have one thing plenty of other sides would kill for – consistency in selection. You could name the first choice Welsh side to a man, and playing together breeds confidence – which should be a worry for other sides. With George North rampaging around out-wide and last year’s player of the tournament Leigh Halfpenny punishing any indiscretion within 50 metres of the sticks, the last thing sides want to see is a streak of confidence flowing through them.
Watch out for: Scott Williams. The Scarlets centre will be filling the boots of his outstanding clubmate Jonathan Davies this spring, and those are some pretty big shoes to fill. But Williams shouldn’t be daunted – at nearly 16 stone and with explosive acceleration he’ll fit right into the Welsh backline. Thankfully, we won’t be completely without a Jonathan Davies this Championship – listen out for his namesake commentating for the BBC. You’ll know when he’s commentating because he’ll reach a pitch only dogs can hear and you’ll have a sudden an uncontrollable urge to put your fist through the screen.
Prediction: 2nd. This Welsh side are looking confident and are stuffed full of world-class operators and leaders, such as Sam Warburton and Alun Wyn Jones. Their fixture list gives them the chance to build momentum early, but I can see them slipping up at Twickenham and falling agonisingly short of a record third consecutive Championship win.
England
Coach: Stuart Lancaster
Captain: Chris Robshaw
Last Season: 2nd
Strength: Mobility. In a nice break from the tradition of the last decade, England don’t have a pack that resembles the size (and occasionally flexibility and fitness) of a weight-watchers group on a trip to Skegness. England’s pack is full of athletes who work exceptionally hard at the breakdown and pride themselves of beating their opposite numbers to each contest. That’s not to say they lack grunt though – in fact, with Courtney Lawes and Billy Vunipola pottering about, you can be sure of a few hefty collisions when the England pack comes to the party. With a decent set piece as well, England’s pack is finally looking like one to take on the world’s best.
Weaknesses: The backline. Ah, back to tradition we go then. To be fair, the backs are less of a weakness and more of an unknown quantity. With Manu Tuilagi – England’s main attacking weapon – along with Christian Wade and Marland Yarde injured, and who were all guaranteed to start despite they themselves being inexperienced, the England coaching team has had to look elsewhere and/or improvise. Will it work? Who knows, but it’s an area other sides are looking to target. Injuries have also robbed Stuart Lancaster of a trio of Lions in the forwards, with Alex Corbisiero, Geoff Parling and Tom Croft all sitting out.
What’s the deal?: As usual, it’s a mixed bag for England that often shows a lot of promise but not always a lot of execution. A solid Six Nations campaign was joyously derailed by the Welsh in Cardiff, but that spectacular failure didn’t translate into spectacular performances in the Autumn, where their best performance ironically came in their only defeat, against the All Blacks. A large part of that is, to be fair, down to injury, where they have been hit harder by any other side – losing 5 Lions players. But, despite the backline showing all the cohesion of a skyscraper held together by prit-stick, the pack is rapidly becoming a real force in the loose and in the set piece. That alone should be enough to drag them through some tight games, but England fans will be desperate to see some spark out wide this Championship.
Watch out for: Jack Nowell. Appearing out of nowhere, the young Exeter winger has taken the Premiership by storm and is favourite to take a starting place for England. Quick, and built like barrel on legs with calf muscles the size of my chest, the youngster has all the assets to make a big impression over the next few weeks. Unfortunately, he’s ruined all of his good work in the build up maintaining a rat’s tail on his noggin. You’re not a Jedi, Jack, nobody is. I found that out the hard way.
Prediction: 3rd. Despite the disappointing finish, I think England will only lose one this tournament – that being against France in Paris, first up. With the likes of Tuilagi and Yarde potentially returning and healthy competition in key places, I suspect the men in white will get stronger as the championship progresses.
Scotland
Coach: Scott Johnson. The world’s longest serving “interim” coach.
Captain: Kelly Brown
Last Season: 3rd.
Strength: Aggression. The Scots can stir up that Celtic passion like no other, and when they are in the mood it is incredibly difficult to get quick ball against them – that is if you can get the ball off them in the first place. With giants such as the world’s largest boyband member, Richie Gray, and cave-troll Jim Hamilton, in their ranks, the Scots can dominate the contact area when appropriately fired up. Add in big ball carriers such as Dave Denton and canny operators like Kelly Brown, and you understand why gaining possession and grabbing the hard yards is not the problem for this Scottish side.
Weaknesses: Centres. The Scots have some serious pace and guile out wide for the first time in memory, with Maitland and Hogg capable of scoring tries galore even without the flying Dutchman, Tim Visser, but whether or not they receive quality ball is another matter. Duncan Taylor and Alex Dunbar are good, solid players but are they international class? They don’t offer enough of a threat with the ball in hand, making it easy for opposition defences to drift quickly and cut down the danger men.
What’s the deal?: I feel sorry for Scotland. They actually had a very decent Six Nations last time out, finishing 3rd, but nobody seemed to notice. They turned over Italy and Ireland with some powerful performances but everybody was too enamoured with the Welsh dismantling of England to give it any attention. The key goal for the Scots is to somehow turn all the possession they get into points – so, often they dominate this statistic, and yet they end up on the losing side. It’s a cross between failing to play the game in the right areas of the pitch and not having the quality of personnel in the 10, 12, 13 channel make the most of it. Will this be the year that all changes, though?
Watch out for: Duncan Weir. The fly-half is a bizarre looking creature, with no neck and a little pot-belly, but he is a very shrewd operator. A great kicker of the ball, he also has a low centre of gravity that allows him to scoot around and, occasionally, under heavy traffic – he’s certainly not afraid to mix it with the big boys. Scotland is crying out for a man to take the 10 shirt that has held legends such as Chalmers and Townsend – this is Weir’s chance.
Prediction: 5th. They’ll be a tough nut to crack for any side, but I don’t think they’ve got enough class to turnover the likes of Wales, England or France. They will fancy their chances at home, though, and I expect them to win in Italy as well.
Italy
Coach: Jacques Brunel
Captain: Sergio Parisse
Last Season: 4th
Strength: The pack. The Italians are always competitive up front and can cause any side a problem in the set piece. Gladiators such as Martin Castrogiovanni and the sublime Sergio Parisse are players who can dominate proceedings if they are given the platform to get into the game. A solid set piece and accuracy at the breakdown from the rest of the pack will mean that these two figures can start to dominate the fringes.
Weaknesses: Decision making. It’s easy to point the finger at the Italian backline and say that they’re not doing a good enough job behind a powerful Italian pack, but the truth is that the Azzurri, as a whole, do not create enough opportunities with the possession they have and, on the off chance that one is created, they fail to take advantage of it. This is often due to poor decisions – taking the ball into contact around the fringes again, or slowing the ball down. If they can up their tempo and learn to communicate when opportunity arises, they have real potential to cause more than a couple of upsets.
What’s the deal?: Italy are another side who seem to specialise in confusing the discerning rugby viewer. After an impressive Six Nations, where they recorded superb wins over France and Ireland, as well as pushing England all the way at Twickenham, the Azzurri duly bent over and took an absolute spanking from South Africa and Samoa over the summer (as well as a narrow loss to Scotland). Their Autumn form was poor as well, managing just one narrow win against Fiji, sandwiched by 2 convincing defeats to Australia and Argentina. Aside from Sergio Parisse, it is difficult to see where the brains to unlock defences lies within the Italian side. They will be ferocious defenders but, until the next Diego Dominguez takes the helm, they will be continually stuck with that patronising tag that the rest of us slap on them every year – “try-hards”. Trying hard shouldn’t be enough for Italy now.
Watch out for: Luciano Orquera. Bizarrely, the Fawlty Towers Manuel look-a-like became a cult hero last year, tearing up defences with some virtuoso displays that nobody expected (and probably not even Orquera himself). At 32, he’s no spring chicken, but if he can command the same authority and inventiveness as he did against France last year, then he could make a big claim for being the Italian 10 at the next world cup.
Prediction: 6th. They will fancy their chances in Rome against Scotland and England – and rightly so – but I’m not sure if they have the personnel to execute the opportunities they create.
Ireland
Coach: Joe Schmidt
Captain: Paul O’Connell
Last Season: 5th
Strength: Defence. The Irish are the stubborn and frenzied defenders, especially when roared on by a partisan Dublin crowd, and are the masters of the ‘choke’ tackle – holding attackers up off the ground in order to win turnover ball off the referee. With brutes such as Cian Healy and Paul O’Connell lurking in the depths of their pack, and the old pro O’Driscoll marshalling the backline, attacking sides will have to make sure their runners are well supported.
Weaknesses: Age. Again, it’s harsh to put this down as a weakness, but there’s no denying that the spine of this Irish side are getting on a bit. Guys like Rory Best, O’Driscoll, O’Connell and Gordon D’Arcy have all been fixtures of the Irish side for years, but there is a fine line between being in your prime and being past it. They’ll still be extremely competitive and physical, but what the Irish desperately need now is for the next group of leaders to really stand up and be counted – Jamie Heaslip was virtually anonymous in his captaincy role last year.
What’s the deal?: An appalling campaign last season, yielding just one win – on the opening weekend against Wales – sounded the death knell for the under-fire Declan Kidney (not literally, he’s still alive), and since then Joe Schmidt has tried to rebuild in a short amount of time. An outstanding first half display against the All Blacks is enough to justify optimism amongst Irish supporters, but the cold reality of their Autumn Series was that they just didn’t build enough momentum to threaten teams consistently. If they get their intensity levels right and cut out the silly penalties, they have the ball-carriers to dominate the gain-line battle against pretty much anyone - although the loss of Sean O'Brien is a real blow.
Watch out for: Luke Fitzgerald. Alright, alright, he’s not a new face, but it feels like a new player after a loss of form and injuries have kept him out for so long. Despite looking like a lost member of Westlife, the compact winger is incredibly physical and combines that with an explosive turn of pace and some wonderfully balanced running – he’s been in scorching form for Leinster this year. Ireland will want to get him the ball as much as possible.
Prediction: 4th. A slight improvement on last year, but Schmidt will need more time to “bed-in” his ideas, and trips to London and Paris will prove a step too far. Sean O'Brien's injury deprives them of one of their chief ball-carrying threats, too.
France
Coach: Philippe Saint-Andre
Captain: Pascal Pape
Last Season: 6th
Strength: Balance. The French look to have a fantastically balanced side this season, with some serious grunt in the pack and backs alike in the form of Louis Picamoles and a resurgent Mathieu Bastareaud, whilst Wesley Fofana and Huget provide the twinkle-toes out wide. Their scrum in probably the best in the Championship as well, with Thomas Domingo and Nicolas Mas two of the best technical scrummagers around. To be honest, looking down the team sheet, you end up gob-smacked that they don’t win every game they play by 20 points.
Weaknesses: They’re French. Which France will show up? Yes, it’s a lazy and overused comment to make, but scientists could discover how to open up a wormhole in space in less time than it would take to find out why the French are so flaky. If things don’t go their way early on, then they tend to just give up and look as if they wish they were back in bed, no doubt eating cheese, drinking wine, and smelling of garlic.
What’s the deal?: France won just two matches last year, in keeping with their pathetic display in the Six Nations, winning only against Scotland and Tonga. Now that sounds bad, and it is, but their last 5 defeats have come against the All Blacks (four times) and South Africa. Not many sides could brag to having beaten them lately. It means that France are even more of an unknown quantity than usual this year, but they should be feeling optimistic given that a new agreement with the French clubs has allowed a full 2 weeks of preparation prior to the England game – something previously unheard of. On their day, the French are occasional practitioners of ‘Total Rugby’; they just need to start well and hope that Phillipe Saint Andre has taken his brain medicine that morning and has decided to play players in their best positions.
Watch out for: Gael Fickou. The youngster from Toulouse looks like the real deal, but he’ll be struggling to get game time with Fofana and Bastareau the preferred combination (I was going to say watch out for Mathieu Bastareau, but it’s quite hard to miss someone who resembles a very angry space hopper). If he does get on the pitch, his markers will have to ensure he doesn’t get the space to showcase an electric outside break and his dancing feet. That's provided Saint-Andre doesn't play him at prop, of course.
Prediction: 1st. (No Grand Slam). Sure, last to first in one season, why not? I think the England game first up will be of huge importance – a win at home, which they should expect, could propel them onto big things. The Millennium Stadium will be too big a task to conquer but, other than that, I expect big – or at least better – things from Les Bleus this spring. And of course, it's a post-Lions year, which the French have won on the last 3 occasions...
Who do you think is odds on for the title this year?
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