Every side in the Heineken Cup has 'a plan', even if their
players and coaches won't admit it. If
they're in a tough group but have genuine Heineken Cup ambitions, they'll pick
out an away game that they consider to be an acceptable loss, and plan on
picking up bonus points at home or elsewhere.
The only problem is that very rarely do things ever seem to go according
to plan, and it causes no end of headaches for clubs and nervous-squeaks from
fans. This is part of the reason why I
am so disorganised – the absence of a plan means I'm never surprised (that is
in fact nonsense, it is just down to laziness).
Take Toulouse for example. Their
plan, with two 'fodder' sides in Zebre and Connaught, would be to win all their
home games, win in Italy and Ireland, and maybe snatch something from
England. That would set them up nicely
for the quarter finals. So when they
actually won at Wembley 3 months ago, they were not only keeping to 'the plan',
they were exceeding it. But then along
came plucky Connaught, given no chance, with their own plan – which involved
crapping all over anyone else's plan – and turned the French giants over in
their backyard. Toulouse's plan was in
tatters. The casual stroll through the
final rounds of the Group Stage they had envisaged had now been replaced by a
trouser-soilingly intense encounter with Saracens, who are now level on points. Winner takes all stuff.
Of course, winner takes all is not exactly true. These two sides are still in good shape for a
best runners up spot at least. But
everybody knows that the home quarter final is key, and to get that you need to
top your group. Saracens march into the
South of France in mesmerising domestic form, hell-bent on exacting revenge for
their agonising defeat at Wembley in October. And with both sides priding themselves on
their physicality, you get the feeling that this is going to be an absolute
belter. Toulouse, the hosts, will go
into this fixture off the back of a crucial win at home against the mighty
Clermont Auvergne, and are sitting comfortably in 4th in the Top 14. But Toulouse's home form has never been a
problem, and that will concern Saracens fans.
With a gargantuan pack, consisting of the likes of Johnston, Maestri,
Nyanga, Dusautoir and the colossal Louis Picamoles, who is leading the way in
this year's tournament in terms of players 'bumped' (read 'ran over') with
22. Indeed, it was the big set of 8 who
gradually wore their English counterparts down in the initial fixture,
hammering the line and making metres time and again. Oh, and not that they need them, but they
also have Mazime Medard, Hosea Gear, Yoann Huget and Gael Fickou waiting out
wide, on the off chance they're needed.
It's a devastating line up – so where is the weakness? Well, fly half has been the problem position
for them. With Luke McCallister proving
woefully inconsistent and Lionel Beauxis offering as much threat as a bag of
bunnies, the pivotal role has been handed to 22 year old Jean-Marc
Doussain. And in typical French fashion,
he's a scrum half by trade. Doussain is
a talented young player, but that famous wolf-pack Saracens defence will be
smelling blood on the 10 shirt.
Saracens, in the Premiership, seem absolutely unstoppable at
the moment. The power-packed game led by
the Vunipola brothers and Ernst Joubert has now been complimented by a ruthless
efficiency in attack. Owen Farrell may
not be the most creative player in the world, but he is standing flat, kicking
intelligently and distributing smoothly to the players outside him. None of the Saracens backline are flat out
speed or power merchants, but each one has the brains to read the play and get
themselves in exactly the right place at exactly the right time, with Strettle,
Ashton and Goode amongst the best in the business at that. It pains me to say it, but the club that
invented that ear-bleedingly bad "stand up for the Saracens" with
Right Said Fred are playing some exceptional rugby at the moment, having scored
the most tries out of anyone this season in Europe, with a total of 17. The one worry for the Londoners? It sounds odd with a pack as large as theirs,
but physicality does – very occasionally – cause problems for them. It did against Toulouse and it did against
Saints last year, and they really feel the loss of the wily Jacques Burger and
Will Fraser, who use superior speed and technique to take the opposition's big
runners out of the equation. Ball in
hand is not a problem, but in defence the big guys very occasionally hit too
upright and concede easy meters. This is
a problem that cannot rear its head in France on Sunday.
Saracens' plan is simple enough – win at all costs. Executing it may be somewhat harder.
Toulouse have made three changes to the side that beat
Clermont last week, all in the pack as Clement Poitrenaud keeps his place in
midfield with Gael Fickou one of only two backs the bench. Pumas lock Patricio Albacete comes into the
seocnd-row ahead of French international Romain Millo-Chluski, who takes a
place amongst the replacements. In the
front-row, Census Johnston returns at tighthead, Springbok hooker Chiliboy
Ralepelle starts ahead of Christopher Tolofua while Schalk Ferriera is
preferred to countryman Gurthrö Steenkamp at loosehead.
Starting Line
up: 15 Maxime Médard, 14 Yoann
Huget, 13 Yann David, 12 Clement Poitrenaud , 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Jean-Marc
Doussain, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Thierry Dusautoir (c), 6 Yannick
Nyanga, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Yoann Maestri, 3 Census Johnston, 2 Chiliboy
Ralepelle, 1 Schalk Ferriera.
Subs: 16 Christopher Tolofua, 17 Gurthrö Steenkamp,
18 Yohan Montes, 19 Romain Millo-Chluski, 20 Joe Tekori, 21 Yacouba Camara, 22
Sebastian Bézy, 23 Gael Fickou.
Key Player
Jean-Marc Doussain.
It feels like he's been around for ages but the classic French 9/10 is
still a kid at 22. He's been handed the
10 shirt in the hope that he will display better decision making than
McAllister, and better execution than Beauxis.
His role will be pretty simple – to play for territory when in his own
half, and to get the ball to the quick men when the fatties have generated
quick ball. How he does it with the
likes of Kelly Brown tracking his every step though? That's a question only he can answer – and it
may well decide the outcome of this game.
Chris Wyles replaces Marcelo Bosch at centre in Saracens'
only change to the side that beat Gloucester last weekend - the Argentine international
misses out with a slight knock. On the
bench, loosehead prop Richard Barrington comes into the squad to replace Rhys
Gill, whilst George Kruis , Ernst Joubert and Duncan Taylor are also included.
Key Player: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Chris
Wyles, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 David Strettle, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Neil de Kock, 8
Billy Vunipola, 7 Kelly Brown, 6 Jackson Wray, 5 Alistair Hargreaves, 4 Steve
Borthwick (capt), 3 James Johnston, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Mako Vunipola.
Subs: 16 Jamie George, 17 Richard Barrington,
18 Matt Stevens, 19 George Kruis, 20 Ernst Joubert, 21 Richard Wigglesworth, 22
Charlie Hodgson, 23 Duncan Taylor.
Key Player
James Johnston. With
Matt Stevens preferred at tighthead for most of the season, it may be seen as a
surprising move to start Johnston in this key game. But when you see the size of Toulouse's pack,
it's easy to see why he is in there – bulk.
Sure, Matt 'Fat' Stevens isn't exactly dainty, but Johnston weighs in at
a colossal 21 stone 10lbs, which is 2 stone more than Stevens. His role will be to anchor that scrum but
also get his hands on the ball in the tight and make those crucial metres up
close. He will also play the role of
'wall' in defence.
Louis Picamoles v Billy Vunipola. Battle of the Behemoths. People living in Scarborough who couldn't
give a flying fudge about rugby will be calling in complaining of earth tremors
if these two collide. In a game that is
sure to come down to physicality, it isn't hard to see how the key battle will
fall between two of the most destructive carriers in the European game. In the London encounter, it was Picamoles who
came off the bench and scored the crucial try, whilst Vunipola struggled to
have an impact, being caught running far too upright on more than one
occasion. The young England
international seems to have rectified that problem though, and is improving
every game – this will present a great chance to measure just how far he has
come.
Prediction
Saracens fans travelling to France are advised to pack a
spare pair of underpants. I reckon this
will be just as close as the last time these 2 met, when Owen Farrell missed
the posts with a last-gasp kick to win it.
It will be a battle of muscle, first and foremost, but don't
underestimate the strike power Toulouse and Sarries have out wide. This could be bone-bruising, power-packed
rugby at it's best, and I'm going to side with a stunning away win for the
English side. Just. Saracens
by 1.
Pool 1: Leinster have enough firepower to sneak a
win against Castres in the French champions' back yard, whilst it should be a
similar story for Northampton away at Ospreys.
Pool 2: Exeter will be too strong at home against
a tenacious Glasgow team, and in the south of France Toulon will avenge their
shock loss to Cardiff .
Pool 3: Connacht should win the battle of the
minnows at home against Zebre in the other Pool 3 encounter.
Pool 4: Racing Metro seem like they couldn't care
less about this tournament but should still win with home advantage against the
Scarlets, whilst the Quins v Clermont game could go down to the wire – I'm
leaning towards an away win there.
Pool 5: Ulster and Leicester should both pick up
bonus point wins against Montpellier and Treviso respectively to set a mouth-watering
winner-takes-all encounter next week.
Pool 6: Edinburgh should utilise home advantage against
Perpignan and claim a win, whilst Munster should take advantage of Gloucester's
atrocious home form.
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