Friday, 1 March 2013

Aviva Premiership Big Match Preview - Bath v Gloucester


Them West Country folk like to do things differently.  They drink cider instead of beer, pronounce "I" as "Oi" and generally harbour a dislike of anyone from the Midlands or London, instantly dismissing them as "a bunch of city-boy pansies".  I'm not going to argue with them – take a look at the history of the dreaded West Country derby between Bath and Gloucester and you'll see a contest brimming with passion, hatred and punch ups.  Recently, however, it's all become a bit frilly. 

Heading to Kingsholme was always a bit of a nervous affair as it would generally just entail getting the stuffing kicked out of you in front of The Shed, where roughly 5000 Gloucestermen were frothing at the mouth whilst baying for your blood.  The Cherry and Whites would take it as a personal affront if they didn't physically dominate each and every member of the opposition, and were led by unbreakable warriors such as the ultra-aggressive "Iron" Mike Teague.  But over the past decade, Gloucester have developed a reputation for being, well, a bit wet.  They've had a backline to die for and set the league alight with some magical performances, but the days of their mutant-sized packs and forward dominance are long gone, meaning they've occasionally taken a beating up front.  They may have turned a corner this season, however.  Coach Nigel Melville has maintained the magic behind the scrum, developing the likes of Freddie Burns and Jonny May, but he's also starting to construct a pretty decent pack.  Any side that has the ball carrying brutality of big Ben Morgan and the powerful athleticism of Akapusi Qera is going to present a big physical challenge and a decent season so far had led to fans wandering if maybe they might be able to see a return to the good old days.

Now Bath have never quite had their dear West Country neighbours' reputation for abnormally large farmers in the pack, but that's not to say they can't handle themselves in a brawl.  Danny Grewcock was a stalwart for them for years for crying out loud, and you didn't cross him without good reason (and even then you'd hesitate).  Combine an aggressive set of forwards with a mercurially silky backline, with the likes of Jeremy Guscott and (yes, he was actually semi-decent) Stuart Barnes, and you had a combination of skills that drove Shed-Heads mad with frustration during the period of Bath dominance in the late 80s, early 90s.  And although they've been a fairly stagnant and stifling side over the last 2-3 seasons, there are signs lately that they may be discovering some of that old magic.  Dave Attwood and Francois Louw are tough men to best in the tight, whilst in Nick Abendanon and Kyle Eastmond, they have two of the most dangerous runners in the league. 

So, despite a history of bruising encounters, these two sides have chucked up a heck of a lot of good rugby as well.  Between the 2 sides, it is Gloucester who hold the better Premiership form, sitting pretty in 4th spot and having won their last 5 Premiership games against the home side, but Bath were the victors the previous time these two met, running out 32 – 5 winners in an astonishing thumping of the Cherry and Whites at Kingsholm.  In addition, the hosts have won 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions, with their only loss coming last weekend in a 2 point reverse against Northampton Saints. 

It looks like we've got 2 sides who will be wanting to play with their speedsters out wide, which means forward dominance will be key.  Who's got what it takes?

 
Bath Team News

Bath welcome back Test props Paul James and David Wilson, released by Wales and England respectively.  Captain Francois Louw returns to the blindside flank, while Matt Banahan has recovered from a back injury and joins Kyle Eastmond in the centres.

Starting Line up: Abendanon, Agulla, Banahan, Eastmond, Tom Biggs, Heathcote, Stringer, Skirving, Fearns, Louw (c), Attwood, Day, Wilson, Webber, James.
Subs: Batty, Catt, Perenise, Spencer, Gilbert, Claassens, Vesty, Rokoduguni.

Key Player

Matt Banahan.  Yes, he's about as subtle as a Brian Blessed impersonation group, but he's very effective at getting over the gainline and offloading in the tackle.  Once Bath get front foot ball, they are a very difficult side to play against, with big runners coming round the corner at pace and some serious gas out wide.  If Banahan can get on a roll, and get those long arms out of the tackle to his support runners, then Bath will find it much easier to get on top of and behind their opponents.
 

Gloucester Team News

Gloucester and England fly-half Freddie Burns makes his return from a knee ligament injury and starts his first game since 19 January.  Mike Tindall returns in midfield, and will skipper Gloucester against his former club, while Nick Wood is named at loosehead instead of Dan Murphy.

Starting Line up: Cook, Sharples, Trinder, Tindall (c), May, Burns, Robson, Kalamafoni, Qera, Savage, James, Lokotui, Harden, Dawidiuk, Wood.
Subs: Edmonds, Murphy, Chistolini, Buxton, Hazell, Lewis, Mills, Thomas

Key Player

Jonny May.  Yes, he's a winger and therefore not instrumental in whether or not the visitors even see the ball, but he's in lethal form at the moment and has the ability to cut teams apart with his unbelievable speed.  Bath fly half Tom Heathcote is a great talent, but his tactical kicking can be a bit loose and if it is, May will have a chance to take full advantage and show why there's a growing group of support for him to be wearing the white of England.

 
Key Battle

Carl Fearns v Akapusi Qera.  We all know about Qera and his unbelievable power on the carry and in the tackle; when he's on song, Gloucester generally win.  But Carl Fearns can cause his own problems.  The openside was an England tip last year and was even part of the squad which toured South Africa, but injuries have prevented him from kicking on.  Strong over the ball and a brute in the tackle, he has a chance to test himself against one of the most destructive players in the league – if Fearns wins that battle, he'll have nullified the visitor's biggest threat in the pack.

Prediction

Gloucester look in decent nick this year and have a great chance at grabbing a playoff spot, but Bath have been in cracking form as well of late.  I think home advantage and the Rec crowd will play an important factor in deciding a tight – and hopefully entertaining – game.  Bath by 4.

 

Who else is looking good this weekend?

Worcester Warriors v London Wasps:  Worcester aren't on the best run at the moment, despite always being tough at home.  Although Wasps lost last week, they look really sharp and have a top 4 spot to play for, so I expect them to squeak it.  Wasps by 3

Leicester Tigers v Sale Sharks:  Despite the home side looking very rickety at the moment, it's too much to ask the struggling Sharks to travel to Welford Road and get a win.  Tigers by 10.

Northampton Saints v London Irish:  Saints are blowing hot and cold but they'll be strong enough at home, even though a resurgent Irish side will give them a good test. Saints by 8.

Harlequins v Exeter:  Quins at home are difficult enough proposition even without having a dodgy away record as the Chiefs have.  They'll be lucky to come away from this one with a bonus point.  Quins by 15.

Saracens v London Welsh::  Sarries at their new home looked formidable against the Chiefs a couple of weeks ago, and I expect them to beat Welsh comfortably, especially with all the issues that the Oxford side have going on off the pitch.  Sarries by 20.

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