Friday, 29 March 2013

Aviva Premiership Big Match Preview - Northampton Saints v Leicester Tigers



I’ve written a lot about rivalries over the past few weeks, but in the UK rugby calendar there are none that get the juices going like the Saints v Tigers fixture.  Rugby is a game usually played with a huge amount of aggression, intensity and borderline rage (unless you’re part of the current French team) – but the East Midlands derby is one of those few matches which is played with a genuine primal passion and hostility which is evident in almost all the games between the two sides.  Punches, late hits, stamps, and even a bit of hair pulling is all par for the course in this fixture.


Of course, it would be unfair and grossly inaccurate to state that these matches are just glorified, officiated brawls between two sides with a burning hatred for one another –some stunning rugby and unbelievable drama has been produced by both clubs over the years, with last year’s game at Welford Road being dubbed as the game of the season after a 7 try epic which swung both ways before ending 30-25 in favour of the Tigers.  And when you look down the line ups at some of the names amongst the ranks, you’d be justified in expecting not only an explosive encounter, but a damned good one as well.

Northampton are well back on track this year after a mid-season wobble that saw them drop out of the playoff spots, but they’ve clawed their way back into 4th place following a recent upturn in form and a power-packed win in a dramatic match at Adams Park against Wasps.  The real strength of Northampton – the set piece and the driving maul – was at the forefront of their victory and they scored an incredible 4 tries off lineout drives, with the likes of Dylan Hartley and Christian Day particularly impressive.  They’ll struggle to get the same level of supremacy against a much more tenacious Tigers pack which means they’ll have to use their backline, who were surprisingly blunt in their last outing (although, to be fair, they weren’t really needed).  They’ll need to get the ball into Pisi’s hands as much as possible and hope Ben Foden discovers his form sharpish if they are to threaten out wide.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have been winning games without once getting out of third gear.  Comparing this side’s performances to last season, they are still a long way short of their best; whereas this time last year, Leicester were sitting pretty on the back of 6 consecutive bonus point victories, this time they have, at times, looked like they would struggle to finish a Sunday roast.  With guys like Youngs, Flood, and Tuilagi in their backline, there is no shortage of X-factor there – and in fairness they are creating opportunities – but for some reason they have been nowhere near as clinical as they have been in recent years.  Perhaps part of the problem is that the pack have been struggling to secure the kind of quick ball that makes their backline and mobile back row such a threat – the tight five will have to match the physicality of their Northampton counterparts if this quality backline are to finally click.

The stage is set.  Get ready for fireworks.

 
Northampton Team News

Northampton Saints make two changes to the side which earned a dramatic late win over London Wasps.  Tom Wood comes in to the back row and Tom May starts at centre, so Gerrit-Jan Van Velze and begins the match on the bench and Dominic Waldouck drops out the squad.

Starting Line up:  Foden; Wilson, Pisi, May, Elliott; Myler, Dickson; Tonga'uiha, Hartley (c), Mercey; Lawes, Day; Manoa, Dowson, Wood.
Subs: McMillan, Waller, Mukati, GJ Van Velze, Nutley, Roberts, Lamb, Burrell.

Key Player

George Pisi.  I’m a huge fan of the Samoan centre and can’t wait to see him go head to head against Manu Tuilagi.  The more Saints get the ball into this fella’s hands the better – his stepping, offloading and strength are top notch and he can turn a game on his head with his wonderfully balanced running.  His task will be to fix Tuilagi and use his superior footwork and acceleration to get onto his outside – but if he plays too flat, he could be in for a painful afternoon.  With Northampton unlikely to enjoy to same level of forward dominance as they had against Wasps, Pisi’s involvement could be pivotal.

 
Leicester Team News

Richard Cockerill name an unchanged team and squad following last Saturday's victory over Exeter Chiefs.  Fly-half Toby Flood, who kicked all Tigers' points in the 12-9 win, will once again captain the side.

Starting Line up:  Tait; Morris, Tuilagi, Allen, Thompstone; Flood (c), Youngs; Ayerza, Youngs, Cole; Slater, Parling; Croft, Salvi, Crane.
Subs: Hawkins, Mulipola, Castrogiovanni, Waldrom, Kitchener, Harrison, Ford, Smith.

Key Player

Toby Flood.  Flood has his detractors but he has proved himself time and again to be a big game player for the Tigers.  His goalkicking has been outstanding of late and, in a game that’s likely to go down to the wire, that’s going to be absolutely key.  If the pack can get a rumble on and get him front foot ball, then his ability to create holes on the gainline for the likes of Manu Tuilagi and Adam Thompstone could prove decisive – and don’t forget he has an eye for a gap too and decent pace to exploit them (considering he has a pair of wind breaks on either side of his head).  If Flood fires, Leicester should win.


Key Battle

Dylan Hartley v Tom Youngs.  There are massive battles all over the park, with the likes of Tom Wood, Lee Dickson and George Pisi all facing off against Tom Croft, Ben Youngs and Manu Tuilagi, but it’s the scrap between the two hookers that has really caught my attention, with a spot on the Lions plane potentially up for grabs.  Hartley has the experience and the edge in set piece prowess and accuracy, but Youngs’ progress has been sensational and his ball carrying and defensive work has been utterly destructive this season.  His continued improvement at the more ‘refined’ (never thought I’d use that word as a description of front row play) will be key as Leicester will want to match Saints in the scrum and lineout, but it is the temperament of both hookers that will come under the most scrutiny.  Both men have a fiery disposition – with Hartley’s transgressions receiving plenty of attention and Youngs not adverse to a good scrap himself – and they’ll be desperate to get one over on each other given the pressures surrounding their performances.  Expect sparks to fly – I can’t wait.

 
Prediction

Saints have hit some form of late but they still looked pretty vulnerable against Wasps, and their record against Leicester and in do-or-die matches isn’t great.  The Leicester experience should just about pull them through in what could be a cracker.  Tigers by 4.


What else is happening across the Premiership this weekend?

Gloucester v Harlequins:  Two of the league’s most talked-up backlines go head to head on Friday night – but neither are in particularly good nick, with the reigning champions suffering a humbling defeat against Saracens last week and Gloucester going tryless against the league’s bottom club, London Welsh.  I expect Quins to bounce back though this week – Harlequins by 8.

Bath v London Welsh:  Bath suffered a chastising defeat against Sale whilst Welsh are still reeling from a 5 point deduction for fielding an unregistered player for 9 games.  Bath will be hungry to set their hunt for Heineken Cup qualification back on track – Bath by 10.

London Wasps v Saracens:  Wasps were unlucky to lose against Saints and their back 3 continue to look lethal, but unless their pack steps it up a notch against a physical and in-form Saracens front 8, they will struggle.  Saracens by 9.

Worcester Warriors v Exeter Chiefs:  The Warriors are struggling for form at the moment but Exeter, by and large, have failed to impress in their away games.  That said, they still have the carrot of Heineken Cup qualification to aim for – so I expect an Exeter win.  Chiefs by 5.

London Irish v Sale Sharks:  Irish and Sale both picked up key wins last week that went a long way to helping to secure their Premiership status this season – but they can’t afford to get complacent yet.  Irish at home remain a tricky side to beat.  Irish by 6.

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