Six Nations Preview - Italy v Ireland

I flew into a full-on tantrum at the checkouts in a certain supermarket the other day when I realised that a certain brand of tomato ketchup was not in fact 3 for the price of 2 as advertised on the shelves – I was informed by one particularly gormless employee, who looked as if they had just returned from an appearance on the Jeremy Kyle show, that the offer was “old and didn’t count any more, innit”.  Misrepresentation is one of those things that really gets on my nerves and in law it’s defined as a false representation made that induces someone to enter into a contract (bit of legal nerdiness for you there), but it can be seen in many forms across a whole host of aspects in life – including sport.  And that’s why, if I was an Italian or Irish supporter, I would be in a right grump after such a fantastic opening round of matches gave promises that simply haven’t been fulfilled.

The Italians are generally written off at the start of every tournament, it’s just what happens.  But when they defeated the French there was a completely legitimate feeling that this would be the year where they cast off their ‘also-rans’ tag and launch a genuine tilt at the title, especially seeing as they were following up their historical victory against the vulnerable-looking Scots and Welsh, the 2 sides they have had most success against over the years.  But 2 poor performances have knocked the wheels well and truly off the wagon and that opening performance seems nothing more than a blip that occurred a long time ago now.  And that’s what makes this Saturday’s match so important for the Azzurri.  They should be fed up of flips.  They should hate blips.  Every year, if they get a win, it’s a blip – but this weekend they have a real chance to show that they are building as a side year on year and are ready to make the step up.  They improved against England last week, and shut the home side out when it came to tries, but they will need to be especially careful against an Irish side who have more capacity in the midfield to spread the ball wide, and thus exploit the Italians’ occasionally bunched defence.  In attack, they need to continue with the style of play which they finished with against England – direct, with lots of pick and gos and 1-out passes to build momentum before looking to shift it wide – and they will ask the Irish plenty of questions.

 For the visitors however, this tournament has represented even more of a disappointment.   An eye-catching win against Argentina last Autumn was followed by a stunning opening 40 minutes against Wales in Cardiff, before they switched off.  Another ‘blip’, we all presumed; they’d realised the game was won.  Not so.  Blunt performances against England, Scotland and France have seen them scrape one draw (against Les Bleus) since then, and it would appear that there is something fundamentally wrong with this Irish side at the moment.  A team with the likes of Healy, Heaslip, O’Brien, O’Driscoll and Kearney should not be struggling to finish off opportunities, but for whatever reason they haven’t been able to finish a Sunday dinner for the last month.  Declan Kidney must know that his time is up come the final whistle on Saturday, and it will be interesting to see how his players respond to this because in all other respects this game is essentially a dead rubber.  Will they go out for one last hurrah, playing the brand of rugby that makes them dangerous, with power runners coming round the fringes and appearing in the midfield before creating mismatches outwide?  Or will they believe all is lost and turn in another imprecise display?  Only time will tell.

One thing is for sure though, come Saturday afternoon, only one of these sides will be able to legitimately say that they’ve represented themselves to the best of their ability – the fans deserve to see their sides live up to that early promise.

 

Italy Team News

Italy make three changes to the side that almost rocked England's Grand Slam hopes at Twickenham. Leicester prop Martin Castrogiovanni has failed to recover from a thigh injury and is replaced by Lorenzo Cittadini at tighthead. Openside flanker Robert Barbieri is another casualty from the England clash with a hip injury prompting a promotion for Simone Favaro, while the final change sees veteran Andrea Lo Cicero preferred to Alberto De Marchi at loose-head.

Starting Line-up:  Andrea Masi; Giovanbattista Venditti, Gonzalo Canale, Gonzalo Garcia, Luke McLean; Luciano Orquera, Edoardo Gori; Sergio Parisse, Simone Favaro, Alessandro Zanni; Joshua Furno, Quintin Geldenhuys; Leonardo Cittadini, Leonardo Ghiraldini, Andrea Lo Cicero

Subs: Davide Giazzon, Michele Rizzo, Alberto De Marchi, Antonio Pavanello, Francesco Minto, Paul Derbyshire, Tobias Botes, Tommaso Benvenuti

Key Player

Andrea Masi.  Well, come on, it’s boring to keep talking about Parisse isn’t it?!  Masi, for me, has been one of the players of the tournament and has lived up to his form in 2011 where he actually won the prestigious gong.  The Italian pack will always generate go forward but it is his ability to hit the line hard from deep and offload that will be key to the home side being able to pull the trigger on Saturday.

Ireland Team News

Paddy Jackson is handed the No.10 shirt once again after Jonny Sexton was ruled out of the match just hours after being named in the starting line-up. Sexton continues to struggle with a hamstring injury so Ian Madigan will once again provide cover for Jackson from the bench. Craig Gilroy, who missed the draw with France last weekend with a groin strain, returns in place of Fergus McFadden while uncapped scrum-half Paul Marshall is named on the bench after Eoin Reddan suffered a broken leg.

Starting Line-up:  Rob Kearney; Craig Gilroy, Brian O'Driscoll, Luke Marshall, Keith Earls; Paddy Jackson, Conor Murray; Jamie Heaslip, Sean O'Brien, Peter O'Mahoney; Donnacha Ryan, Mike McCarthy; Mike Ross, Rory Best, Cian Healy.

Subs: Sean Cronin, David Kilcoyne, Stephen Archer, Devin Toner, Iain Henderson, Paul Marshall, Luke Fitzgerald, Ian Madigan.

Key Player

Cian Healy.  The prop is a phenomenal ball carrier and a much improved scrummager, and he will have an opportunity to really hammer home these facts in Rome.  He’ll be scrummaging against Lorenzo Cittadini, in for the injured Martin Castrogiovanni, and he’ll need to make sure he takes advantage of his slightly less prestigious opponent in the close quarters – if he can help dismantle the Italian set piece, then it sucks the morale and soul out of the Azzurri’s game.

 

Key Battle

Sergio Parisse v Jamie Heaslip.  OK, I couldn’t not mention Parisse, and I’m forced once again to say what a shame it is that the 2 best number 8s in Europe (Picamoles being the other) aren’t eligible for the Lions.  But Parisse will have a huge job to do in terms of leading his side as he did against England, giving them belief via his work with the ball in hand, where he offloads and runs like a centre – getting the Irish side unsettled will be key to the Italian chances.  But Heaslip will also need a monumental performance.  He’s been average at best this tournament, with a solid performance against France not doing enough to erase the fact he simply hasn’t made enough yards for a number 8 or inspired his team when things aren’t going his way.  He needs to get back to being the Heaslip of old that was so devastating in the wider channels – an area where the Italians are particularly vulnerable.

Head to Head

·         The Italians have never beaten the Irish in 13 attempts in the 6 Nations, and their last win of any sort against the men in green came in 1997

·         Ireland have failed to win their last three Six Nations matches, their worst run in the Championship since losing three in a row between 1999 and 2000.

·         The Italians have only managed 2 wins in the Six Nations once, in 2007, where they beat Wales and Scotland.

Prediction

I have a horrible feeling that this Irish side has almost given up this tournament, which is a dreadful shame seeing that it’s potentially Brian O’Driscoll’s last appearance in a green shirt.  Despite the B.O.D. factor, I think we may see a cheeky upset on the cards – you can guarantee the Italians will want this one.  Italy by 2.