David Brent from the Office, my all-time favourite TV personality, was known for occasionally stumbling across a wise proverb before ruining it with a cringe-inducing comment or, at his worst, a finger click and a wink. My personal favourite, immediately prior to his reference to Dolly Parton's cleavage, was that "Life is full of peaks and troughs; and you don't know you're on a peak until your sliding down it". And the Italians can probably relate to this pretty well – after their incredible win in the opening round, and with struggling Scottish and Welsh sides to follow, the Azzurri must have felt like they were on the up and may well have been heading into this match with genuine Grand Slam ambitions. As it has transpired, the victory over the French was a peak for the Italians – and they are sliding alarmingly downhill.
For the hosts, the trough that was the World Cup 2011 seems an awfully long time ago. With a team and reputation built almost from scratch, this England side have shown in the opening three rounds that they can play expansively, abrasively and even badly, and still get the win. And there are signs that this England side is still climbing – the return of Tom Croft, a genuinely world class flanker when on form and a British and Irish Lion, is not just a fantastic tale after his recovery from a horrific neck injury, but a huge plus for this young England side who still need leaders like Croft to show the way. Croft will wait for his chance on the bench, which will surely come, but he will be aiming for the peak of a trip to Australia this summer, which must have seemed an impossible thought 3 months ago. England also welcome Danny Care and Toby Flood back to the starting line up. Despite both being in their mid-20s, they are the elder statesmen of this team when it comes to experience and they will be looking to up the tempo against an Italian side that has looked tired in their last 2 outings. Out wide, young Leicester centre Manu Tuilagi sent shock waves around South-West London last weekend and with more time and space the Leicester centre could wreak even more havoc this Sunday. Who knows, Chris Ashton may even grab a try.
But perhaps all this is premature. Arriving at Twickenham will be an Italian team that has had its hopes shattered, but one which will have no external pressures on it. This means that they have a chance to throw off the shackles and move the ball with speed and intent, as they did when they were underdogs against the French, and they have their inspirational captain, Sergio Parisse, back to lead them after allegedly using some fruity language (in Queen's English, no less) towards a referee in a Top 14 game. The Italians will want their set piece to recover and place a lot of pressure on young loosehead Mako Vunipola – should they get an upper hand here, and hold the English out for the first quarter, this side might just start to believe. To keep the English out though will be much easier said than done, especially if the Azzurri don't improve their defence of the wider channels.
Expectation is on England. How will they handle it? They can rise to the challenge and climb further, or else they run the risk of being forced to peak over the edge of a fairly deep trough.
England Team News
England coach Stuart Lancaster has made five changes to his side, with Saracens prop Mako Vunipola is handed his first start in the place of Joe Marler while Tom Youngs returns at hooker with Dylan Hartley making way. Toby Flood reclaims the No.10 shirt with Owen Farrell yet to recover from the thigh injury he suffered in the 23-13 victory over France last time out. Flood will partner Danny Care who gets the nod over Ben Youngs at scrum-half with James Haskell preferred at blindside flanker instead of Courtney Lawes in the other change to the starting line-up. I like the way that Lancaster in not referring to this as 'dropping' but rather 'rotating' and 'freshening' – it keeps players in key positions on their toes. My only concern is that I've always felt that if Flood plays, Youngs should too because they bring out the best in each other – but the development of a strong squad is probably more important than this particular partnership.
Starting Line up: Alex Goode; Chris Ashton, Manu Tuilagi, Brad Barritt, Mike Brown; Toby Flood, Danny Care; Mako Vunipola, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole; Joe Launchbury, Geoff Parling, James Haskell, Chris Robshaw (capt), Tom Wood.
Subs: Dylan Hartley, Dave Wilson, Joe Marler, Courtney Lawes, Tom Croft, Ben Youngs, Freddie Burns, Billy Twelvetrees.
Key Player
Danny Care. Yes, he has a terrible haircut, but the Quins 9 has been in top form and been very patient sitting on the bench. The frustrating thing for Care is that, despite his superb displays for his club, Youngs has been in fine form for England and so hasn't warranted being dropped – but this is the chance he's been waiting for. The biggest issue for Care is to make sure he doesn't try and prove a point and do it all himself – he needs to bide his time when looking to make a break. If he gets the balance right, then he is one of the most lethal running scrum halves in world rugby and will give the Azzurri one hell of a headache around the fringes.
Italy Team News
Sergio Parisse returns from suspension at No.8 and reclaims the captaincy with Manoa Vosawai making way in one of five changes to the pack that started the 26-9 defeat to Wales last month. Roberto Barbieri starts at blindside ahead Alessandro Zanni while Quentin Geldenhuys and Joshua Furno form a new second row pairing with Antonio Pavanello and Francesco Minto dropping to the bench. In the final change up front, Alberto De Marchi is preferred to veteran Andrea Lo Cicero. Luciano Orquera returns to the No.10 shirt with Kris Burton omitted while Gonzalo Garcia comes into the midfield with Gonzalo Canale moving to outside centre to cope with Manu Tuilagi. Tommaso Benvenuti is named among the replacements.
Starting Line up: Andrea Masi; Giovanbattista Venditti, Gonzalo Canale, Gonzalo Garcia, Luke Mclean; Luciano Orquera, Edoardo Gori, Alberto De Marchi, Leonardo Ghiraldini, Martin Castrogiovanni, Quintin Geldenhuys, Joshua Furno, Alessandro Zanni, Robert Barbieri, Sergio Parisse (capt)
Key Player
Sergio Parisse. Yawn. I know, I know, every time. But it's hard to look past the returning number 8 who, after being banned for insulting a referee, should have a mouth full of soap this weekend (or, at the very least, have learnt Swahili in order to avoid being caught). He was stupendous against the French, a one man wrecking machine, whilst he showed some sublime touches against the Scottish as well. He was sorely missed at home against the Welsh and will bring a touch more leadership to the side than stalwart prop Martin Castrogiovanni does. As a link man, he is so important to the way the Italians play rugby.
Key Battle
Mako Vunipola v Martin Castrogiovanni. The young man from Saracens has always been known as a great impact player – powerful in the loose and destructive on the carry and in defence – but his scrummaging is much improved as well, and what better way to test yourself than against Castro. The hairy one wasn't at his best last week but will be hungry for revenge – not only is the scrum one of the few areas where the Italians could come out on top, but he has the charisma to inspire his teammates to greater things if he wins his individual battle. The outcome of the battle between these two at scrum time could have massive ramifications for the game.
Head to Head
·
England have won all 18 meetings between the two
sides, though the Italians did earn a 15-15 draw against an England XV (non
cap) in 1986.
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Only Tommaso Benvenuti and Giovanbattista
Venditti have scored a try against England from the current Italian squad.
·
England have beaten Italy by over 40 points on
five occasions - 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2011.
Prediction
I know we are having our ears hammered by the English PR machine telling us that Italy are a difficult side and they will be treating them with the upmost respect, but it's hard to see past a bit of a thumping for the visitors. That's not to say Italy aren't a much improved side, but I think that with the 'freshening-up' selections Lancaster has made, and the shattered Italian confidence following their initial ecstasy at beating France, England should win comfortably. England by 28.
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