Rugby Championship Preview - All Blacks v Springboks

Remember that 1995 World Cup final? Most remember it as a glorious triumph for a nation – a nation that conquered its divides and united in its greatest sporting victory of all time.  Others remember it as a surprising result dictated by a cheeky case of the squits which permeated the All Black team.  Whichever side of the fence you sit, this match will always live long in the memory.

And it’s not getting any less intense of late.  Although the Springboks haven’t tasted victory against the All Blacks since August 2011, they are coming into this game as the only other unbeaten side in the Rugby Championship and are on a role after easily dispatching the Pumas (twice) and the Wallabies.  The cornerstone to their success has been playing fast rugby off the back of devastating gainline carries, with the likes of Duane Vermaulan and Willem Albert proving particularly effective.

So effective, in fact, the All Blacks have called up Liam Messam instantly upon recovering from injury, purely because of his experience of the South Africans and his ability to match fire with fire when it comes to the brute force that the Boks will bring in abundance on Saturday morning.  The hosts though will be aware that they will desperately need to up their game if they are overturn the men in green – despite two wins, the All Blacks have been brilliant only in patches rather than periods. 

South Africa, for the first time in a while, look like they might become the real deal.  The All Blacks though will be confident at home – either way, the tightest game of the tournament is about to get underway.  And who knows, maybe nobody will get the trots this time.

All Blacks Team News

Luatua makes way for Messam while Sam Cane replaces injured captain McCaw at openside flanker and Dane Coles starts at hooker with 105-Test veteran Keven Mealamu to provide impact from the bench. Owen Franks returns to make his 50th Test and inside centre Ma'a Nonu is fit again after missing the Argentina Test to rehabilitate an ankle problem. Charlie Faumuina moves to the bench to make way for Franks, joining Luatua, who is covering lock and loose forward, and injury-replacement openside flanker Matt Todd. Kieran Read will captain the team in his 55th Test.

Starting Line up:  Israel Dagg; Ben Smith, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Julian Savea; Daniel Carter, Aaron Smith; Kieran Read (captain), Sam Cane, Liam Messam; Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick; Owen Franks, Dane Coles, Tony Woodcock.

Subs: Keven Mealamu, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumuina, Steven Luatua, Matt Todd, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Beauden Barrett, Charles Piutau.

Key Player

Sam Cane.  The outstanding young flanker is unfortunate to have a living legend of rugby standing between him and a regular starting All Blacks jersey.  It’s the equivalent of finding out you’re a decent Jedi but then realising that Yoda is your master – you learn a lot, sure, but it must be a bit disheartening at times.  Luckily for the All Blacks though, Cane has shown throughout his short career that he doesn’t let the occasion phase him and he will be more than ready to step into the shoes of the great seven, and bring his own brand of raw physicality and energy to the side – which will be very much needed against the South Africans.

 

South Africa Team News

Heyneke Meyer has named an unchanged 23-man squad for the match with Jean de Villiers captain.  Yawn.

Starting Line up: Zane Kirchner; Willie le Roux, JJ Engelbrecht, Jean de Villiers (capt), Bryan Habana; Morne Steyn, Ruan Pienaar; Duane Vermeulen, Willem Alberts, Francois Louw; Flip van der Merwe, Eben Etzebeth; Jannie du Plessis, Bismarck du Plessis, Tendai Mtawarira.

Subs: Adriaan Strauss, Gurthro Steenkamp, Coenie Oosthuizen, Juandre Kruger, Siya Kolisi, Jano Vermaak, Pat Lambie, Jan Serfontein.

Key Player

Morne Steyn.  Yes, he is about as interesting to watch as an Ed Miliband stand-up routine, but wow is he effective.  Against the All Blacks, the Springboks will be relying on their dead-eyed general to keep that scoreboard ticking over and force the All Blacks to kick away possession in their own half rather than risk getting penalised.  He’ll also be looking to play nice and flat and make sure the likes of Alberts and Vermeulen can get into the faces of the Kiwi half-backs.

 

Key Battle

Liam Messam v Willem Alberts.  Normally I would say that Stephen Luatua is the unluckiest man in the world, being dropped despite three great performances...but then I realised he’d be going up against Willem Alberts.  Lucky bastard.  The man who will not be thanking Graham Henry is Liam Messam, the big Chiefs blindside who has just returned from a hamstring injury, and it will be up to him to nullify the human wrecking ball that is Alberts.  Messam has been brought straight back in because of his physicality, and every ounce of that will be required to keep the bulldozing Alberts at bay.  So much of the Springbok game plan depends on Alberts crashing over the gainline – but if he can be stopped before, it will turn the game in the hosts’ favour.

 

Prediction

Perhaps it is premature to call this a decider, but there’s no denying that this is the biggest match of the Championship so far.  For the Springboks, a victory over the All Blacks would represent a huge step for his side and surge in Christmas cards delivered to Heyneke Mayer this winter – the South African fans are waiting for another era of domination.  The All Blacks have looked good without looking break and there is a feeling that this will be there toughest test by some distance – how they cope without McCaw will be interesting to say the least.  I think this one could go down to the wire but I’m going to go with home advantage – just.  All Blacks by 4.