Thursday, 26 September 2013

Rugby Championship Preview - South Africa v Australia


The Hulk was always my favourite superhero.  Not just because he was green and had pecs the size of continental plates, but also he was lauded as “Incredible” when he lost his rag and had a tantrum.  This isn’t the case when I get cross and throw a man-trum at all – although the difference is probably that he crushes bad guys with his bare hands, whilst I merely get my swear words mixed up to the amusement of those watching.  Of course, it does take me quite a while to get that wound up, but the same can’t be said about the typical South African rugby player, who generally relishes any sort of confrontation and can unleash that trademark aggression at any point during the game.  Imagine, then, what they will be feeling like after 2 weeks to contemplate the injustice of an abysmal refereeing decision last time out.

In that game Roman Poite ruled a perfectly fair, but hard, tackle by Bismarck Du Plessis on Dan Carter warranted a yellow card.  This came back to bite hard when the hooker was shown a second yellow in second minute of the second half, when the game was teetering on a knife edge and the men in green were starting to dominate territory.  Du Plessis may have since had his red card rescinded, but the thought that they had a chance of a monumental victory snatched away from them will have been firing the Springboks up for the last fortnight.  That may well be of a benefit to the hosts, but they will need to temper that energy with intelligence and incision, and it is partly for this reason that Heyneke Meyer has brought in veteran Fourie Du Preez for his first start in 2 years.

The Wallabies meanwhile, will be feeling more frustration than out-and-out rage.  Despite a hard-fought win over Argentina in torrential conditions, the insanely talented Wallaby backline has looked too flat and devoid of imagination throughout the Championship, whilst the pack have been unable to hold their own for 80 minutes as yet.  The win against the Pumas, though, was just what the doctor ordered – full of grit, character and determination, and proved once again that this side has real backbone, even if they don’t have the confidence at the moment.  And it’s easy to see why they wouldn’t have, in their home fixture against the Springboks, the men in gold shipped 4 tries in a thumping defeat.  They know it will only be tougher in the South Africans’ own back yard.

Because if the Wallabies are to turn the tables and upset the odds in Newlands, it will take one hell of an effort.  A super-human one, to be precise.

 
South Africa Team News

Springboks coach Heyneke Meyer has opted to make two changes to the side that lost to the All Blacks ahead of Saturday's Test against Australia.  Meyer has drafted in scrum-half Fourie du Preez for his first Test start since the 2011 World Cup. He has been plying his trade in Japan but due to an agreement with his side Suntory Sungoliath, he is free to play in South Africa's home Tests.  And Meyer has also handed a start to hooker Adriaan Strauss with Bismarck du Plessis and Ruan Pienaar dropping to the bench.

Starting Line up:  Zane Kirchner, Willie le Roux, JJ Engelbrect, Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana, Morne Steyn, Fourie du Preez, Tendai Mtawarira, Adriaan Strauss, Jannie du Plessis, Eben Etzebeth, Flip van der Merwe, Francois Louw, Willem Alberts, Duane Vermeulen
Subs: Bismarck du Plessis, Gurthro Steenkamp, Coenie Oosthuizen, Juandre Kruger, Siya Kolisi, Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie, Jan Serfontein

Key Player

Eben Etzebeth.  How somebody who looks like a cross between Sacha Baron Cohen’s Bruno and a pole can be this dominant in the tight and the set piece, I don’t know.  Ignore the pretty-boy hair, the lock is as physical and confrontational as they come, and his battle with the abrasive James Horwill will be brutal.  But Etzebeth has it within him to physically dominate opponents and if he can get stuck into the opposition lineout – as he has on so many occasions – and deprive the Wallabies of a reliable set piece, it will become mission impossible for the visitors.

 
Australia Team News

Wallabies coach Ewen McKenzie has made three changes to his team ahead of their game against South Africa in Cape Town on Saturday, according to reports.  James Horwill is named in the second-row after recovering from a hamstring injury. He takes on the captaincy from Ben Mowen who skippered the team to their round four win over Argentina.  In other changes to the side, Tevita Kuridrani starts at outside centre with Adam Ashley-Cooper shifting to the wing to replace the injured Nick Cummins. Joe Tomane is called upon to step into the suspended James O'Connor's shoes on the other flank.  Nic White keeps his place at scrum-half with Will Genia still relegated to the bench. He will be joined in the replacements by Benn Robinson and Chris Feauai-Sautia with the latter set to make his Test debut if he gets the nod from the bench.

Starting Line up: Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Lealiifano, Joe Tomane, Quade Cooper, Nic White, James Slipper, Stephen Moore, Ben Alexander, Rob Simmons, James Horwill (captain), Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, Ben Mowen
Subs: Saia Faingaa, Benn Robinson, Sekope Kepu, Sitaleki Timani, Ben McCalman, Will Genia, Matt Toomua, Chris Feauai-Sautia.

Key Player

Nic White.  Given the ultimate show of confidence in being selected above Will Genia for the second game running, there’s pressure on White to justify McKenzie’s faith in him.  There may have been a slight suspicion that, with the home game against the Pumas being the easiest of the Wallabies’ fixtures, the selection of White was merely a poorly disguised kick up the backside for Genia, but following the Brumbies’ man’s assured display in difficult decisions, those suspicions have been put to bed.  White may not be as instinctive or as much as an attacking threat as Genia, but he has a sharp tactical brain and good boot on him, and if the Wallabies are to have any hope of upsetting the hosts they will need him to pin the Springboks back with accurate box kicks and cross-field touch finders.


Key Battle

Francois Louw v Michael Hooper.  The South African openside has been an unsung hero of this Springbok side, doing the dirty work on the ground whilst his gargantuan backrow colleagues, Alberts and Vermeulen, use the opposition as doormats.  Hooper, on the other hand, has at times been a one-man pack for the Wallabies, scavenging to standard that David Pocock would be proud of and carrying with a frightening degree of aggression and pace.  In an explosive breakdown contest where physicality will be king, the subtle edges these two bring may well be enough to tip the balance in either direction.


Prediction

I can’t see the Wallabies being as bum-smackingly bad as they were in their home game against the Springboks, but it’s surely too much of an ask for them to come away with a win at Newlands.  Their pack is a strong unit – as they proved in the monsoon in Perth against the Pumas a fortnight ago – but this South African pack is a different prospect altogether and that back row balance is right up there with the best in the world at the moment in terms of raw power and technique in the breakdown.  Add to that the fact that the backline have started cutting some intelligent lines and you have a very dangerous Springbok side – not least because they have had 2 weeks to let their anger at the injustice of Poite’s decision to eat away at them.  The Aussies will fight and do themselves credit – but it’s another home win for me.  Springboks by 12.

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