Friday, 3 May 2013

Aviva Premiership Big Match Preview - Exeter Chiefs v Gloucester



Rugby is a team sport – at least, it is after under 15s when the freakishly over-developed kid with a full on beard and an overly aggressive amount of testosterone gets reeled in by his peers when they finally hit puberty.  I'm not saying there's no room for class individuals – guys like Jason Robinson, Shane Williams, Jonah Lomu and Dan Carter are all capable of turning matches on their head with isolated moments of genius, but the point is that they only get that chance to shine because they are part of a team.  Guys who can provide their 'stars' with the space and spotlight to show off their skills – and these are the players who win games and get next to no credit.

When you like down the Gloucester teamsheet, your jaw literally drops at the talent they have at their disposal.  Sharples, May, Twelvetrees, Burns, Morgan, Qera and Kalamafoni are all phenomenal players who are capable of setting games on fire through their speed and power.  Outwide, the Cherry and White's backline is so quick that they make the Hadron Collider speeds seem pedestrian, whilst that big backrow is explosive enough to require a warning sign before games – so why is it they've struggled for consistency?  Well, perhaps it has something to do with that team aspect.  I'm not saying by a long shot that Gloucester are full of primadonnas, but when you have so much individual flair it can be hard to stifle it for the benefit of the team – although, in the West Country side's case, they also haven't been helped by inconsistency of selection due to injuries.  When these boys click, they are almost unplayable – see the way they outclassed Leicester and Saracens at Kingsholm – and are great to watch, but they have a habit of making a mountain out of a molehill when they're not all singing from the same hymn sheet (such as the week before their Saracens victory, when they where stuffed by Sale).

If you look through the Exeter ranks, on the other hand, you don't suffer from that same sense of being overawed.  With the exception possibly of the giant Sireli Naqelevuki, there's not too many blokes who can break games open by themselves – but when you combine like these guys do, who needs superstars?  They've overcome a rough patch when they weren't quite on song to win 5 of their last 6 games in the Premiership and get them to within a whisker of European qualification, with only Bath able to catch them in unlikely circumstances.  Their dismantling of Wasps in the last round was sensational in the way that they picked out weaknesses and exploited them with almost a frightening precision – they haven't got one of the highest try scoring records in the league for no reason (more than the league leaders, Sarries).   With guys like Baxter, Scaysbrook, Arscott and Dollman all quality players, they have ruthlessly punished any side who has dared make the mistake of underestimating them and yet, still, inexplicably, teams continue to do it. 

These are two sides who can both rip others to shreds but in very different ways.  One who aims to get its stars into space, and the other who collectively run opponents ragged – this game could be a beauty if both sides show up.   Another top 6 finish and Heineken Cup Rugby, and those unsung heroes in the Chiefs ranks may just realise they are superstars after all - in Devon anyway.


Exeter Team News

Buoyed by their impressive win at London Wasps a fortnight ago, it's little wonder that Baxter sticks with an unchanged match-day squad for their final outing. That means the Chiefs will again be led out by long-serving number eight Richard Baxter, who will be pulling on an Exeter jersey for the final time.

Starting Line up:  Arscott, Nowell, Dollman, Shoemark, Jess, Steenson, Thomas, Sturgess, Yeandle, Tui, Mumm, Welch, White, Scaysbrook, Baxter (capt).

Subs:  Whitehead, Rimmer, Mitchell, Muldowney, Ewers, Chudley, Slade, Whitten.

Key Player

Richard Baxter.  Perhaps this is a little sentimental, but this guy pretty much is Exeter.  Playing with unwavering commitment and determination, he often doesn't receive the plaudits he deserves – which is probably appropriate considering the man exemplifies the unappreciated qualities of this excellent Chiefs side.  Strong, direct and powerful, with an unflinching drive and determination to succeed, as well as surprisingly deft hands, Baxter embodies what the Chiefs are all about and he'll be sure to get a big reception from the home fans on his last game before retirement.  He won't be bothered about that though – all he'll care about is taking Morgan out of the game at every opportunity so to stall the visitors' momentum.


Gloucester Team News

With his starting XV unchanged, Nigel Davies only makes 3 changes to his squad amongst the replacements. Hooker Darren Dawidiuk is back after suspension and Mike Tindall and Shane Monahan come in for Ryan Mills and Martyn Thomas.

Starting Line up: Cook, Sharples, Trinder, Twelvetrees, May, Burns, Robson, Wood, Britton, Knight; Savage (capt), Lokotui, Kalamafoni, Qera, Morgan.

Replacements: Dawidiuk, Murphy, Thomas, Buxton, Hazell, Lewis, Tindall, Monahan.

Key Player

Ben Morgan.  The number 8 has suffered some rotten luck this year after being injured at the beginning of the Six Nations, just when it seemed like he'd made that number 8 shirt his own.  A colossal ball carrier, his destructive presence around the fringes and on the kick return is absolutely key to getting Gloucester onto the front foot and allowing the backline to show their pace.  Injuries do happen on Lions tours, so Morgan will have to make sure that his last match of the season leaves a sweet lasting memory in the minds of the coaches.

 
Key Battle

Gareth Steenson v Freddie Burns.  The diminutive Irish/English fly half for the Chiefs has been a revelation over the second half of the season – he's always been known for his dead-eyed kicking from the tee, but lately we've been seeing an eye for a gap, sharp acceleration and sublime offloading.  It's the sort of qualities that had fans up and down the country clamouring for Freddie Burns to be proclaimed the latest saviour of the nation and handed a starting shirt for England, but the young tyro hasn't quite managed to hit his early season form after injury.  Against the Chiefs, he will have to ensure that the Cherry and White's unbelievably talented backline are unleashed at every available opportunity, whilst coping with Steenson's superior game management skills.  I think that this game will be easy on the eye – but it may well come down to who can play the corners better at key moments.

 
Prediction

The Chiefs at Sandy Park has proven to be one of the toughest assignments in the League over the last couple of years, and with Gloucester swinging from red hot to red not with apparent abandon, I can see this one going the way of the hosts.  They've got something to play for and they'll have the superbly vocal Exeter faithful backing them all the way – Chiefs by 9.

 
What else is happening across the Aviva Premiership this weekend?

Harlequins v Northampton:  This would have been my game of the weekend had there been anything riding on it.  As it is, it’s a dead rubber but Northampton will be desperate to prove they can beat a top 3 side before they go into the playoffs – I can't see that happening at the Stoop though.  Quins by 7.

Leicester Tigers v London Irish:  Leicester could feasibly grab top spot with a win, but they'll be more concerned about securing a semi-final against a London Irish side who have nothing but pride to play for.  At Welford Road, there can only be one winner – Tigers by 18.

London Welsh v Worcester Warriors:  The Premiership will bid a fond farewell to London Welsh at the Kassam Stadium in a match that has absolutely nothing at all riding on it.  But the Exiles will be desperate to go out on a high and with the Warriors looking very vulnerable, I think they might just manage it.  Welsh by 5.

Sale Sharks v London Wasps:  Sale have certainly improved in the second half of the season but they'll need to show up a lot better next year if they are to justify all their expenditure on talent.  Canny Cipriani took extreme measures to avoid the game against his old club by taking on a bus in a game of British Bulldog, but there are plenty of players on either side who are capable of producing a bit of magic – though Wasps just have that little bit extra I think.  Wasps by 4.

Saracens v Bath:  Bath still have a shot at making it into Europe and so will give it a good go, but Sarries at their new home look like a real force and it's difficult to see them getting turned over.  Saracens by 12.

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