Super XV Big Match Preview - Cheetahs v Bulls

Predictions…who'd bother hey?  Prior to the season I, and many others far more educated in South African rugby, predicted with the utmost confidence that the battle for the South African Conference would become a 2-way dogfight between the Sharks and the Stormers, but inconsistency and key injuries has left us with egg (or is biltong more appropriate?) on our faces.  Instead of riding high, the 2 favourites are languishing in the mid table of the Super Rugby standings, whilst the fairly-unfancied Bulls and Cheetahs are pushing for a wildcard spot at the very least – and leading the South African conference pretty comfortably.

Aside from the Kings though, who were never really expected to challenge, should we be surprised at any of the South African sides impressing?  Well, yes, to put it bluntly.  Looking down the Cheetahs' roster, unless you're a diehard fan you'll need ESPN's excellent scrum.com website open next to you so you can identify who half the players are and, whilst the Bulls have some pretty impressive names in their ranks (in the forms of Pierre Spies and Morne Steyn), we haven't seen a whole lot of form from them for a good few years.

The hosts on Saturday, the Cheetahs, have almost been like the Exeter Chiefs of Super Rugby.  What they lack in out-and-out star quality is made up for with intelligent game plans and a great team spirit and inventiveness that often catches sides off-guard – and a fiercely competitive pack of course.  The Bulls meanwhile, have really snuck up on the competition.  Chugging away quietly, picking up wins here and there, the men from Loftus have been impressive with their consistency and ability to grind out results on a regular basis – and part of that has been due to the resurgence of Morne Steyn, who is back to his metronomic best with the boot after an indifferent season last year.  Of course, it was Steyn's boot that proved crucial when these 2 last met, just over a month ago in Pretoria - the fly half kicked 16 points, including a late conversion following a dramatic try from replacement hooker Callie Visagie, to seal a 6 point win.  It was a suitably narrow margin for an incredibly tight contest.

So what happens when 2 underdogs go head to head?  We know it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters, it's the size of the fight in the dog – but we'll see on Saturday which one of these 2 has the meanest bite.

 

Cheetahs Team News

Cheetahs coach Naka Drotske has made one change to the team that beat the Kings, naming Springbok winger Raymond Rhule in his starting line-up after the youngster was relegated to the bench for last week's game against the Southern Kings in Port Elizabeth.

Starting Line up:  Hennie Daniller; Willie Le Roux, Johann Sadie, Robert Ebersohn, Raymond Rhule; Elgar Watts, Piet van Zyl; Philip Van der Walt, Pieter Labuschagne, Heinrich Brussow; Francois Uys, Lodewyk de Jager; Lourens Adriaanse, Adriaan Strauss (captain), Coenie Oosthuizen.

Subs: Ryno Barnes, Trevor Nyakane, Rynard Landman, Boom Prinsloo, Sarel Pretorius, Riaan Smit, Rayno Benjamin.

Key Player

Heinrich Brussow.  The South African openside has had an injury-plagued few years – like a certain teammate, Juan Smith (must be a Cheetahs curse) – but has started to return to the type of form that saw him mentioned in the same breathes as David Pocock and Richie McCaw 3 years ago.  Low to the ground and incredibly strong, the flawless technique of Brussow makes him a key weapon when pilfering opposition ball.  He’ll need to be at his disruptive best if he’s to stop this powerful Bulls pack.

 

Bulls Team News

Bulls coach Frans Ludeke has made four changes to the team that beat the Sharks last weekend, with young guns Arno Botha and Jan Serfontein and the experienced Werner Kruger and Lionel Mapoe all included in the starting team.  All four were on the bench last weekend when the Bulls beat the Sharks in Durban, but they now replace Dewald Potgieter, Wynand Olivier, Frik Kirsten and Akona Ndungane respectively.

Starting Line up: Jurgen Visser; Lionel Mapoe, JJ Engelbrecht, Jan Serfontein, Bjorn Basson; Morne Steyn, Francois Hougaard; Pierre Spies (captain), Arno Botha, Deon Stegmann; Juandre Kruger, Flip van der Merwe; Werner Kruger, Chiliboy Ralepelle, Dean Greyling.

Subs: Callie Visagie, Frik Kirsten, Grant Hattingh, Dewald Potgieter, Jano Vermaak, Louis Fouche, Zane Kirchner.

Key Player

Pierre Spies.  All too often last year the ridiculous athlete that is Pierre Spies went missing – but he's back with vengeance now.  A huge hulking brute of a man with pace to burn, when he gets fired up he's very hard to stop.  He'll be up against a Cheetahs pack that has outmuscled and outran more than their fair share of opponents this season so he'll have to be at his explosive best if he's to get the Bulls that all-important front-foot ball.

Key Battle

Petrus van Zyl v Francois Hougaard.  These are 2 scrum halves who are very much attacking threats in themselves, as well as being sharp passers of the ball off the base.  With their rocket boots on, both men love nothing more than to motor through a gap around the fringes themselves and, whilst Hougaard probably has more upper body strength, van Zyl also has a smart a kicking game.  In a key battle for supremacy at the top of the South African conference, taking opportunities (which will be at a premium) will be critical – so they will need to pick their moments and not get caught in the heavy traffic of a defence that will have been briefed about the dangers posed by these 2.

Prediction

With the 2 form teams in South Africa going head to head, this one should go down to the wire.  The Cheetahs have been a revelation this season – we’ve always known they can pack a punch up front but it’s their inventiveness out wide that’s impressed me, whilst the Bulls’ big name players such as Morne Steyn and Pierre Spies have finally found the form that deserted them last year.  When in doubt, go with the home side – but it could go either way...Cheetahs by 3.

 

Where else will the points be won in Super Rugby this weekend?

Crusaders v Waratahs:  Both sides face pivotal games if they are to push for wild card places at the end of the year – especially as they both suffered disappointing defeats last week (the Tahs in particular).   At home I think the New Zealand powerhouse may just have too much for the speed and ambition of the Waratahs – Crusaders by 6 points

Brumbies v Hurricanes:  The Brumbies picked up a morale boosting win against the Crusaders last week to solidify their place atop of the Aussie conference – but they will need to ensure they keep themselves there by dealing with a tricky but inconsistent Canes outfit.  I think they’ve got the skills at home to manage.  Brumbies by 9.

Highlanders v Blues:  This year’s biggest disappointments, the Highlanders, will not find it any easier against a Blues side who have exceeded all expectations this year.  Despite a loss to the Brumbies last week, the Blues still look good and I can see the Auckland side taking this one fairly comfortably.  Blues by 8.

Reds v Rebels:  The Rebels will be on a high after 2 straight wins – without their star players James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale as well – whilst the Reds are smarting after a couple of losses on the bounce.  But at Suncorp the Reds should show too much class and get themselves back to winning ways – they need to, because the Waratahs are closing in.  Reds by 11.

Stormers v Kings:  The Stormers have had an odd season – getting turned over in games they should win and vice-versa, but they claimed a great win against the Reds last weekend and there should be little doubt about the result against a stubborn but limited Kings side.  Stormers by 16.