Super XV Big Match Preview - Chiefs v Crusaders

One of the ‘in’ things to talk about when you have a match between 2 big teams is that it’s a “clash of the heavyweights”, and that’s one of those things that really annoys me.  Perhaps I’m too easily wound up, but I associate heavyweight boxing with slow, lumbering marathons between two behemoths too scared to actually attack each other in case the other manages to land a ham-sized fist in their chops whilst they’re having a go.  Sure, the knockouts may be spectacular but these days you’ve got more chance of finding a member of the EDL with a degree than seeing someone hit the canvas.  Me, I always prefer the middleweight categories.  There’s still enough power in there for the odd haymaker to go flying but these guys go for the jugular, jabbing and moving quickly before exploding in with the punches at the sight of half an opening.  And that’s why Chiefs v Crusaders is not a heavyweight clash, but a middleweight one.

On Friday night we’ll be treated to 2 backlines with enough fire power to shred almost any defence to pieces and a pair of packs with the brute force, mobility and sleight of hand to turn this game into an absolute firecracker.  Sure, the Chiefs have been a bit lacklustre of late, but they know how to turn it on when they need to.  At the moment they still seem to be playing in just 20 minute bursts, looking both unplayable and ordinary in the same half, and it’s meant they’ve not been able to pull away from teams when they should.  Last week, they exploded out of the blocks after the halftime break but couldn’t fully dispose of the Hurricanes, who pushed them all the way.  Perhaps they’ve started believing their own hype?  Possibly, but this talented side will need to be at its most professional and clinical if it’s going to defeat the returning-All Black inspired visitors.

The Crusaders have been bolstered of late by the returns of Zac Guilford, Dan Carter and Kieran Read from rehab, wedding leave and injury respectively (quite a list), and the experience of these men is vital to how the New Zealanders play.  Every forward needs to be able to pass like a back and hit lines because the Crusaders play such a fast, wide game with powerful runners all over the park, but they need the guys with real intelligence and leadership, like Carter and Read, to dictate where the attack will focus.  When it clicks, it’s almost as good to watch as it is horrible to play against – in the Blues game last week, there were moments when it was like watching the great Crusaders team of 5 years ago.  As a neutral, you hope that side shows up again.

It should be some battle.  Expect plenty of speed, dodging, jabbing...and maybe even a knockout – they’ll both be coming out swinging.

Chiefs Team News

The Chiefs have made five changes to the match day 22 with two in the starting line up and three in the replacements.  Ben Tameifuna comes in at prop for Ben Afeaki who is out this week with a calf strain and Patrick Osborne starts on the wing.  Toby Smith, Sam Cane and Lelia Masaga move back onto the replacements bench.  Bay of Plenty midfielder Kenny Lynn has been bought into the squad as midfield cover after injuries to Richard Kahui, Tim Nanai-Williams and Andrew Horrell .

Starting Line up: Robbie Robinson; Patrick Osborne, Charlie Ngatai, Bundee Aki, Asaeli Tikoirotuma; Aaron Cruden, Tawera Kerr-Barlow; Matt Vant Leven, Tanerau Latimer, Liam Messam; Brodie Retallick, Craig Clarke (captain); Ben Tameifuna, Hika Elliot, Pauliasi Manu.

Subs: Mahonri Schwalger, Toby Smith, Michael Fitzgerald, Sam Cane, Augustine Pulu, Dan Waenga, Lelia Masaga.

Key Player

Liam Messam.  The big flanker so laid back he’s horizontal off the field, but on it he is bundle of monstrous energy, aggression and industry.  With a huge work rate to complement his powerful frame, he is probably the best New Zealander around and riding tackles, attracting defenders and looking for the offload.  The back row battle will be extra critical in this one with 2 fly halves who love front foot ball, and Messam will lead the charge against Read’s men.  But the Chiefs’ 6 probably has the edge on the ball carrying front and will need to be as involved as possible if this aggressive Crusaders defence is to be shunted backwards.

Crusaders Team News

Israel Dagg returns to the starting line up at fullback moving Tom Taylor into the number 12 jersey and Ryan Crotty to Centre while Robbie Fruean moves to the bench.  Corey Flynn has been ruled out with a hamstring injury and Ben Funnell has been bracketed so hooker Codie Taylor makes the starting fifteen.  Owen Franks has also been a late withdrawal and his place in the front row is taken by Nepo Laulala.  Former New Zealand Under 20 Winger Telusa Veianu comes on to the replacements bench.

Starting Line up: Israel Dagg; Tom Marshall, Ryan Crotty, Tom Taylor, Zac Guildford; Dan Carter, Andy Ellis; Kieran Read (captain), Matt Todd, George Whitelock; Sam Whitelock, Luke Romano; 3. Nepo Laulala, Code Taylor, Wyatt Crockett.

Subs: Ben Funnell /Laurence Corlett, Joe Moody, Dominic Bird, Luke Whitelock, Willi Heinz, Robbie Fruean, Telusa Veianu.

Key Player

Kieran Read.  You cannot underestimate the importance of this bloke.  Despite looking like he’d be right at home on a tractor, his physicality and intelligence on the rugby field make him a go-to figure for the visitors.  Since he returned a couple of weeks ago, we’ve seen the Crusaders speed of ball retention increase dramatically, and half of the reason for that is the fact that Read gets his hands on the ball so often. He knows went to truck it up himself, when to shift the point of attack, when to stay deeper and when to hit a ball at pace.  His ability to dictate play as a second receiver is fundamental to the Crusaders’ game plan.

Key Battle

Aaron Cruden v Dan Carter.  The physical war that will be waged between Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick will be explosive, but it’s hard to look past the battle between the 2 All Black 10s.  With Carter having taken a leave of absence to get married, Cruden has pressed his claims to topple the New Zealand great and earn that elusive first-choice spot and there are many in New Zealand who would say that he’s earned it.  But Carter just has that bit more to his game, with the acceleration, eye for a gap and offloading ability of a world class inside centre, and it’s that physical threat that stands him out above other flyhalves.  The Chiefs will have to use the power-packed 8 to get on top of the visiting pack or else Carter will have front foot ball from which to pick up out his runners, whilst the Crusaders backline will need to rush up and cut Cruden’s options down quickly, or risk letting arguably the best passer of the ball in Super Rugby wreak havoc out wide.

Prediction

The Chiefs seem to have been winning games without particularly impressing of late but that’s not a particularly bad habit to have, especially when faced with a must win game against the Crusaders.  The Canterbury outfit look very decent with Read back in the side but it is difficult to see them finding that extra level they’ll need to topple the Chiefs in Hamilton.  Chiefs by 7.

 

Who else will be taking the points in Super Rugby this weekend?

Rebels v Waratahs:  The Rebels claimed a great win over the Stormers last week and are always a tricky prospect at home, but the Tahs are on a hot streak and, as long as they’re not complacent, they should pick up the win.  Waratahs by 6.

Blues v Brumbies:  Both these sides were humbled away from home last weekend, and the Brumbies really need a win to stop a real doubt that their season is off the tracks from creeping in.  The Blues at home have been very strong though this season – I reckon they’ll edge a really close one.  Blues by 2.

Force v Highlanders:  Two of this season’s strugglers go head to head in a basement battle after suffering defeat last weekend.  On paper, the Highlanders should be the better side but the Force are still a nuisance in Perth.  This will be another close one but I’m going to bite the bullet and go for an away win.  Highlanders by 3.

Kings v Cheetahs:  The Kings are a confusing side, wet one week and hard as nails the next, whilst the Cheetahs have been impressive all year, playing with an attacking verve we haven’t seen before.  Surely they should dismiss any challenge from the Kings?  Cheetahs by 15.

Stormers v Reds:  The Reds missed out on an opportunity to go top of the Australian conference by slipping to surprise defeat to the Cheetahs – they need to get their South African tour back on track if they’re to keep the rampaging Waratahs off their tails.  The Stormers need a pick up themselves after a disappointing tour, but I think we’ll see the Reds more hungry for this – Reds by 5.

Sharks v Bulls:  It seems like ages since the Sharks got to play a home match and it will be interesting to see how they perform after breaking their losing streak last week.  But the Bulls are looking dangerous once again and won’t be easy meat – that said, I’m going to go for a surprise home win.  Sharks by 4.