Friday, 24 May 2013

Aviva Premiership Final Preview - Leicester Tigers v Northampton Saints


East Midland derbies are always special.  Nothing gets the blood simmering nicely than a full-on scrap with your neighbours – and we've seen blood levels reach boiling point on several occasions in the match ups between Leicester Tigers and Northampton Saints.  I mean, some teams in rugby like to give each other a good shoeing every now and again, but I mean these two really hate each other – you'd be more likely to see Luis Suarez and Branislav Ivanovic in a civil partnership than see these two taking it easy with each other on the field.  I say hate in a strictly "professional-rugby" sense of the word of course, but with a soap-opera style list of incidents – Manu Tuilagi's attack on Chris Ashton, Ashton's hair pulling on Alesana Tuilagi and Calum Clarke's assault on Rob Hawkins – you do begin to wander if there is something more sinister under the surface.

Of course, the reality is that the above incidents are all just over-zealous actions (although Clarke's was a little harder to justify) resulting from the deep-rooted competitiveness between these 2 when somebody pulls on a Leicester or Northampton shirt.  These two great clubs are steeped in tradition and have two of the biggest and loudest fanbases in the country – if it was atmosphere, passion and entertainment the neutral wanted in the Premiership final this year, they've got it.  With Leicester looking unplayable in their second half against Harlequins and Saints bringing new meaning to the word "Oomph" against Saracens in the semis, the storm is well and truly brewing.

The Tigers have made their annual pilgrimage down to west London with almost mundane impressiveness – it is no longer to see a Leicester side picking up wins but looking ordinary throughout the bulk of the season before really turning it on in the home straight.  Perhaps that has something to do with having their international players around for a decent period of time for once, or perhaps it that clinical ruthlessness is now just embedded now into the fabric of this team – it certainly seems that way, to a point.  I say to a point because the 'fact of the week' has been Leicester's sub-par record in Premiership finals – despite this being their 9th on the bounce, they have only won 3 previously.  I blame myself in part/entirely for that, as my record of watching Leicester at Twickenham stands at 8 matches seen, 1 Tigers win – essentially every time (since 1997) I haven't been to HQ, Leicester have won.  Northampton fans will be delighted to hear that I will be in attendance on Saturday.

Leicester's biggest enemy on Saturday will be themselves – and I say that without doing Northampton any disservice.  The Tigers will know that they have the better side on paper – and on record, with 7 consecutive wins against their rivals – but after seeing Northampton crush Saracens the way they did in their semi-final, there must be some fear in the back of the players' minds of falling at the final hurdle once more.

And maybe they have good reason to be afraid – my reaction when faced with a pack sporting the likes of Courtney Lawes, Brian Mujati, Soane Tonga'uiha and Samu Manoa would be to cry and adopt the foetal position on the floor.  Luckily, for the paying public, Leicester will be made of sterner stuff but that doesn't change the fact that this Saints pack can bring a frankly staggering level of physicality to the party.  As probably the only side who can out-muscle the Tigers in an arm wrestle, Saints pride themselves on their set piece and aggression in defence – and it was these qualities that were at the forefront of their dismantling of Saracens in the semi-final.  But there is more to this side than just raw power – Ken Pisi has twinkle toes, Jamie Elliot is a great little finisher and we all know what Ben Foden can do on his day – but the key for Northampton on Saturday will be to keep themselves calm and focussed, and not let the unique occasion get in their way.

That, of course, is far easier said than done, especially when you consider some of the firecracker match ups across the park, with the outcome of Tom Youngs v Hartley, Parling v Day, Crane v Manoa and Ben Youngs v Dickson all capable of changing the course of the game.  I can see the set piece being a key area – after taking apart the country's best lineout (Saracens) last week, Christian Day will want to get stuck into Tom Youngs' throw whilst Northampton will fancy their chances in the scrum with the withdrawal of Marcos Ayerza.  That said, the last time these 2 met – a 36-8 drubbing  for the home side at Franklin's Gardens – Leicester were all over the hosts' set piece and will need to ensure they are just as tenacious this time round.  Away from the stodgy stuff, the underdogs' back row will be trying to blast Leicesters' runners back in the tackle to slow the ball down and force Youngs and Flood to play on the back foot – if they fail to manage that, then they'll be giving the most creative attacking duo in the league free reign on fast, fornt foot ball.  And that's bound to be dangerous as it's out wide that the Tigers hold the real advantage, with the centre pairing of Manu Tuilagi and Anthony Allen in particular having vastly more experience than the Saints pair of Luther Burrell and George Wilson. 

But all this talk of game plan will fly clean out of the window when these 2 emerge from the tunnels on Saturday afternoon.  After all, this is just another brawl; another East Midlands derby.  It's just that this time, it's on a slightly bigger stage.  And with even more at stake.


Leicester Team News

Leicester go into their ninth successive Premiership final with the same starting XV that eased past Harlequins in the semi-finals.  Toby Flood will captain the side as Tigers look to win an unparalleled 10th English crown.

Starting Line up: Tait; Morris, Tuilagi, Allen, Goneva; Flood (capt), Ben Youngs; Mulipola, Tom Youngs, Cole; Kitchener, Parling; Croft, Salvi, Crane.
Subs: Hawkins, Balmain, Castrogiovanni, Slater, Mafi, Harrison, Ford, Smith.

Key Player

Manu Tuilagi.  Some people claimed that Tuilagi had a quiet game against Harlequins, but I disagree – unless by "quiet game" they mean "not obliterating somebody every 5 minutes".  I thought the semi-final was actually one of his most mature performances – he hit countless rucks and was rock solid in defence, despite the fact he must have been frustrated at not getting his hands on the ball as much as he would have liked.  That said, the first time he did get the ball in space he set up a try, which just goes to show that Leicester need to get him the ball more often.  Generally speaking, the more times a commentator mentions Tuilagi's name (as long as it’s not used in conjunction with "Chris Ashton"), the more effective the Tigers are at getting across that gainline and giving fast, clean, front-foot ball for Youngs and Flood to exploit – but, more importantly, the more likely they are to score a try out of nothing.  Manu has the X Factor alright, but he needs to make sure he really hunts for the ball on Saturday.


Northampton Team News

Northampton make one change to the team that shocked Saracens at Allianz Park, bringing in Phil Dowson at openside flanker for the injured Callum Clark, whilst  George Pisi returns to the bench after missing the semi-final triumph.

Starting Line up: Foden; Ken Pisi, Wilson, Burrell, Elliott; Myler, Dickson; Tonga'uiha, Hartley (capt), Mujati; Lawes, Day; Dowson, Wood, Manoa.
Subs: Haywood, Waller, Mercey, Nutley, Van Velze, Roberts, Lamb, George Pisi.

Key Player

Samu Manoa.  Epic does not really do justice to his display against Saracens.  I gave him a 9 out of 10 but on reflection that may have been harsh – the superbly-named, big American was everywhere, smashing back opposition runners at every opportunity and carrying to great effect, whilst showcasing his useful offloading skills.  Leicester's game hinges on the 2 halfbacks creating havoc around the fringes and in the inside channels before shipping the ball wide, so the Saints backrow – and Manoa in particular – will have to shut those options down and pile the pressure onto Youngs and Flood.  They know that, on the front foot, these 2 can rip them apart but, under pressure, they can crumble.


Key Battle

Logovi'i Mulipola v Brian Mujati.  Although a lot of the pre-match focus has been on the All-Lions match up at hooker, I think the scrap between the 2 props is key.  Marcos Ayerza is a huge loss for Leicester – the Argentinian is one of the best looseheads playing in Europe in my view – but Mulipola has done a great job filling in.  Primarily a tighthead, the Samoan prop is a real handful around the park and has acquitted himself well in the set piece, but his battle in the scrum against the bulldozing Brian Mujati will be another test all together.  After a blockbusting display against Saracens, "Mooj" will be licking his lips at the prospect of getting stuck into another powerful but perhaps-not-technically-perfect loosehead.  If Saints want to impose their power game then they need to start in the set piece, which means Mujati has to target and get underneath Mulipola – and, with Cole and Tonga'uiha's battle probably staying just about even, the battle between Mulipola and Mujati becomes absolutely critical.  If the Leicester pack starts going backwards then, like Saracens, doubt will start to creep in – but if the Tigers hold their own, then one of the Saints' chief attacking weapons will have been nullified.


Prediction

This was the final the neutral was probably hoping for and to say it should be explosive is like saying that the Lions tour is "kind of a big deal".  Leicester have all the experience but their Twickenham hoodoo will perhaps be lurking in the back of their minds – if they go behind at any stage, even due to a lucky try – they have to fight back that natural urge to think "Oh crap, here we go again", because, on paper, they have the stronger side.  Saints will be buoyed by self-belief after thumping Saracens and will relish the underdog tag – they'll be coming out with a brutal physicality.  Despite the hiding they received from the Tigers 6 weeks ago the mindset will be very different amongst the teams and I can see this one going right down to the wire, and I genuinely believe the tipping point may be the scrum.  Dan Cole enjoys scrummaging against Soane Tonga'uiha but if Munipola can't hold his side up against Mujati then the set piece will crumble.  If Leicester achieve at least parity, I think they'll win – otherwise it could be a real scrap.  I can't see the Tigers falling at the final hurdle for a third time, so I'm going to lean towards the favourites.  Tigers by 4.
 

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