Friday, 12 April 2013

Aviva Premiership Big Match Preview - Leicester Tigers v London Wasps



I've noticed recently that I'm starting to become a bit of an old man.  From getting grumpy when people display different opinions to that of my own, to making a satisfied noise when enjoying a first sip of a Friday night pint, to making grunting noises when completing even the most menial of tasks – whether it's getting out of bed of picking up the TV remote.  But one thing does stop me from feeling too ancient – I don't recall a big rivalry between Bath and Leicester.  Well, hardly any of it – the first time I went to Twickenham was to see Neil Back push over Steve Lander in the Pilkington Cup final, so I do have some idea of the rivalry between the sides…but as far as I'm concerned, the big face-offs for domestic supremacy for the majority of my life (at least, the part I remember) have been between the Tigers and Wasps.

The noughties became a decade of regularity – the UK would generally be at war with someone, crap reality TV shows would dominate ratings and Leicester and Wasps would be struggling for the Premiership title.  Of course, for four years running, it was a struggle that the London side came out on top of, mastering the playoff system to win when it mattered in the knock-out stages, even if they hadn't looked overly impressive in the regular season.  For the other clubs – especially the ones who finished top of the league – it was mind-numbingly irritating to see them steal the crown right at the end, but you couldn't help but admire the ruthlessness of it all at the same time.  Wasps have fell away badly over the last few years – none more so than last season when they avoided relegation by the skin of their teeth – but they've been on the comeback trail in this campaign, and the rivals better take note.

Only 2 sides have scored more tries than Wasps this campaign, and when you look in their back line it's easy to see why.  In Tom Varndell and Christian Wade, you have two offensively fast wingers who can terrorise any defence if given half a yard.  It's been a mystery to me why Varndell hasn't been given another England shot since Lancaster seemed to be happy to ignore defensive shortcomings – he should go on the Argentina tour as he is, without doubt, the best finisher in the league.  He's closely followed by the electric Christian Wade who may be away himself this summer – but whether he'll be wearing white or red is a different matter entirely.  Although questions still remain about the grunt in the pack, there's certainly no lack of power – especially when you have the likes of Ashley Johnson and Billy Vunipola lurking around in the back row.  These guys are essential to getting the fast, go forward ball that the lethal back 3 need to cause havoc and score tries.

Unfortunately, for Wasps though, Leicester are one of the 2 sides who have scored more 5 pointers than them this season (the other is Exeter, believe it or not).  The Tigers will be hurt after being dumped out of Europe against Toulon, but their performance level was good and they'll now be focussed entirely on getting their Premiership crown back.  This Tigers side may lack the out-and-out wheels of Varndell or Wade, but when you have players like Tait, Tuilagi, Croft and Youngs, there's no shortage of spark.  They'll be aiming to outmuscle Wasps on Saturday in the set piece and the loose like Northampton did 3 weeks back, but they've got enough firepower in their backline to take it to Wasps out wide as well.

Leicester look like they're doing the old Wasps trick of coming good at the business end of the season, but will Wasps rediscover their form and push for a European spot?  If they do, we could be in for a humdinger – a return, as far as I'm concerned, to the 'good old days'.

 
Leicester Team News

Logovi'i Mulipola takes over at prop from Marcos Ayerza, who suffered a broken collarbone in Toulon, in the only change to the starting line-up.  Fraser Balmain earns a place among the replacements, while Toby Flood will captain the Tigers for the 4th successive match, but for the first time at home.

Starting Line Up: Tait; Morris, Tuilagi, Allen, Thompstone; Flood (capt), Youngs; Mulipola, Youngs, Cole, Slater, Parling, Croft, Salvi, Crane.
Subs: Hawkins, Balmain, Castrogiovanni, Kitchener, Waldrom, Harrison, Ford, Smith.

Key Player

Manu Tuilagi.  After a blockbusting display against Northampton, the powerhouse centre had a rare quiet-day-at-the-office against Toulon.  He didn't do anything wrong, but perhaps he could have made more of an effort to get involved in the game – quite simply, the more he gets his hands on the ball, the more dangerous Leicester (or England, for that matter are).  His dummy runs are also key to opening gaps elsewhere so he has to ensure he keeps his work rate up at all times.

 
Wasps Team News

London Wasps will be without Marco Wentzel (shoulder), Hugo Southwell (knee), Stephen Jones (Achilles), Thomas Rhys Thomas (glute), Phil Swainston (knee) and Tim Payne (neck).  Joe Launchbury and Andrea Masi are both rested.

Starting Line up: Daly; Wade, Bell (capt), Hayter, Varndell; Robinson, Davies; Taulafo, Lindsay, Taylor, Cannon, Palmer, Johnson, Poff, Vunipola.
Subs: Morris, McIntyre, Romano, Rae, Everard, Simpson, Bell, Wallace.

Key Player

Tom Varndell.  OK, I'm usually reluctant to name wingers as the 'key player', but this man is not only the best finisher in England, he's also got an unbelievable record against his former club.  His work rate has improved no end and, like Tuilagi, the more he gets involved in the game, the more threatening this Wasps side looks.  He has a genuine chance of pushing himself into the England reckoning and if Wasps are to pick up a win at Welford road, he will have to make sure he exploits every sliver of space the Tigers give him.

 
Key Battle

Geoff Parling v Tom Palmer.  I was hoping to see the 2 lineout nerds, Parling and Marco Wentzel, going head to head, but Wentzel's injury gives Tom Palmer a start and the ex-England man will have a critical role in the set piece on Sunday.  It may not be the most glamorous battle but with 2 hookers who rely heavily on confidence starting for both sides, getting a couple of early steals may well be the difference between having a monopoly on possession and being starved set-piece ball for 80 minutes.

 
Prediction

Wasps have been playing some glorious stuff this year, and the carrot of Heineken Cup rugby will be tantalising for a club with such a proud European pedigree, but Leicester will not be in a charitable mood after their defeat in France and will now be hell-bent on getting their domestic title back.  I think the Welford Road factor will play a big part and we'll see a solid home win.  Tigers by 14.

 
What else is happening across the Premiership this weekend?

Sale Sharks v Gloucester:  Sale are a difficult team to beat at home on a Friday night and have enjoyed a resurgence of late, but Gloucester looked awesome in their last outing against Harlequins and I can see them snaffling a win.  Gloucester by 5.

Harlequins v Bath:  The hosts are on an almost-unheard-of 4 consecutive defeats and will need to not only keep their chances of a home semi-final alive, but to ensure that they stay in the playoff spots.  Bath have been playing some decent stuff of late but I don't think Harlequins will let their fortress at the Stoop get breached again.

Exeter Chiefs v London Irish:  The Chiefs will be looking to push for a top 6 spot, whilst the Exiles are probably safe from the threat of relegation now but are miles off a Heineken Cup spot.  I think the difference in motivation may end up being the key – as well as home advantage.  Chiefs by 12.

London Welsh v Northampton Saints:  This has become a must-win game for the hosts – lose this and, with their points deduction, they are pretty much out of the Premiership.  Sadly for them, I think the Saints have too much class in their ranks to get turned over at the Kassam, despite their home humbling at the hands of Leicester in the last round.  Saints by 7.

Saracens v Worcester Warriors:  The Warriors continue to struggle away from home and if Sarries hit anything approaching the heights they've reached over the last few weeks, this should be a walk in the park for the Fez Heads.  Saracens by 20.

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