Super XV Big Match Preview - Reds v Brumbies

The element of surprise.  I’ve never had it (generally people see, or at least hear, me coming) and so I find it to be a fairly mysterious concept.  London Wasps were the masters of it in the English game for several years when the playoff system was introduced – they’d stutter through the season, and then – bang! – they had a Premiership title, and the rest of the clubs wereleft  wondering where on earth that came from between the sobs whilst picking up their runners up medals.

The Brumbies started this season with a group of kids (effectively) who were decent last year, but not expected to really challenge this term.  Sure, guys like Ben Mowen, Jesse Mogg and Henry Speight all looked class, but could they really cut it against the big boys?  Well, they’ve answered that question pretty emphatically this year, not just through their standings on top of the Super Rugby table (with only 1 defeat) but also through their fantastic brand of rugby, relying on lightening quick ball retention and hard carries at least 2 passes away from the breakdown.  They’ve been a revelation – but how much of that has been down to the fact nobody expected them to really show up this year?  Take the Highlanders as an alternative example – a side who myself and many pundits thought looked like they might be the real deal, stuffed full to the brim with All Blacks and young talent.  They can’t win for love nor money at the moment.  But the Brumbies, they’re the surprise package – but for how much longer?

The Reds meanwhile don’t really pack any surprises.  When you winn a Super Rugby title (like the Queenslanders did in 2011), everyone expects big things from you, even when half your superstars are either injured or have left the franchise.  And so, when the Reds lost to the Brumbies in their opening game, and then proceeded to scrape their way through the next couple, everybody was shocked.  At that point, Ben Lucas was playing at 9 – now, Lucas is a solid player, but comparing him to Will Genia is like comparing One Direction to the Rolling Stones.  Once Genia and James Horwill returned to the fold, the reigning Aussie conference champions have started to click, getting better each week, culminating in their superb win over the Chiefs in the last round.  The Reds train is back on track.

When these two sides meet on Saturday, the element of surprise will have well and truly gone.  We all know what to expect – and with these two fast paced, inventive and ambitious sides facing off, you know it’s going to be a cracker.

 

Reds Team News

Queensland Reds have recalled Digby Ioane for the Super Rugby match against the Brumbies at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday.  Ioane is the sole personnel change to the starting line-up that defeated the Chiefs 31-23 in round nine, the Wallabies winger having recovered from the knee injury that sidelined him from the matches against the Highlanders and the reigning Super Rugby champions in New Zealand. Rod Davies has been rewarded for his two-try effort against the Chiefs with selection on the opposite wing with 2012 Wallabies debutant Dom Shipperley dropped to the bench.

Starting Line up: Jono Lance; Rod Davies, Anthony Faingaa, Ben Tapuai, Digby Ioane; Quade Cooper, Will Genia; Jake Schatz, Liam Gill, Eddie Quirk; James Horwill (captain), Rob Simmons; James Slipper, James Hanson, Greg Holmes.

Subs: Saia Faingaa, Ben Daley, Ed O'Donoghue, Jarrad Butler, Ben Lucas, Chris Feauai-Sautia, Dom Shipperley.

Key Player

Will Genia.  The scrum half showed off his sublime quality with a bullet-like pass to set up Davies’ second try last week, and it was so quick there was a genuine risk of it becoming a health and safety issue.  Put simply, when fit and form, Genia is the best 9 on the planet, and it is no coincidence that the Reds’ resurgence in form has come when the maestro has returned.  If he’s given some decent front-foot ball, then his decision making and eye for a gap can create havoc for the opposition defence.

 

Brumbies Team News

Brumbies coach Jake White has made two changes to the starting line-up that downed the Highlanders 30-19 last Friday.  Big, bustling Fotu Auelua returns to start at No.8, with skipper Ben Mowen moving to blindside flanker and last week's debutant Jordan Smiler going back to the bench.  Tevita Kuridrani returns at outside centre in place of the injured Andrew Smith (hamstring). Former Wallabies winger Clyde Rathbone comes into the match-day 22 as the only change to the bench.

Starting Line up:  Jesse Mogg; Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Lealiifano, Joe Tomane; Matt Toomua, Nic White; Fotu Auelea, George Smith, Ben Mowen (captain); Sam Carter, Peter Kimlin; Dan Palmer, Stephen Moore, Ben Alexander.

Subs: Siliva Siliva, Scott Sio, Jordan Smiler, Colby Faingaa, Ian Prior, Pat McCabe, Clyde Rathbone.

Key Player

Jesse Mogg.  I have been more and more impressed with the youngster this year, who seems to have a Chris Latham-esque quality about him – not just in terms of his receding hairline but his ability to beat player without looking like he’s making much of an effort.  He’ll probably be peppered with rangey kicks for most of the match, so his ability to turn back foot ball into something the Brumbies can attack with may well be key to the visitors’ chances.

 

Key Battle

Liam Gill v George Smith.  George Smith seems to have been around since the William Webb Ellis picked up the ball and ran with it, but the Wallaby veteran has found a new lease of life since being called back on emergency service after a season ending injury to the superb David Pocock.  Smith has shown all the mobility and savvy that has been such a trademark of his play for the last 12 years, earning him a call up to the Australian squad, but his young rival, Liam Gill, is a class act himself.  The young Queenslander, who topped the turnover charts last year, may not have the experience or shrewdness of his illustrious opponent but his ability over the ball and speed across the park will be a hell of a test for Smith.  If Gill negates the Smith effect, expect Genia and Cooper to get lots of uick ball – and that spells danger.

Prediction

The Reds have got their superstars back and now look, for the first time in a fair while, like a team that can genuinely challenge for the top prize.  The Brumbies are still a quality outfit, but the element of surprise has gone and I think the Reds at Suncorp might just be a step too far for the young side.  Reds by 9.

 

What else is happening Down Under this weekend?

Hurricanes v Force:  The Force are on a high after the sensational win of the Crusaders last weekend, whilst the Hurricanes are coming off the back of a disappointing result against the Blues.  The Perth side’s away form has been pretty abysmal though, and I expect the Canes to bounce back with a decent win.  Hurricanes by 10.

Waratahs v Chiefs:  The Waratahs this season consistently look like they are on the cusp of destroying teams, but just don’t have the clinical edge.  The Chiefs had the same problem last week against the Reds, but lightening doesn’t strike twice.  In Sydney, this will be a close one, but I reckon the visitors will pip it.  Chiefs by 6.

Crusaders v Highlanders:  Despite their loss last weekend, the hosts have to be favourites for this one.  Not only are they back at home, but they’re playing an Otago side that is packed full of quality but utterly drained of confidence – and I don’t see the Highlanders’ run ending this week.  Crusaders by 8.

Sharks v Cheetahs:  Both sides suffered losses last week, with the Cheetahs seeing their record-breaking run come to an end.  At home, the Sharks will be fired up following their loss to the Stormers last week, and I expect them to bounce back – but they need to start scoring some tries.  Sharks by 11.

Kings v Bulls:  The Kings pulled off their second win of the year in a magnificent victory in Melbourne last week whilst the Bulls edges past the Cheetahs.  The Kings continue to surprise but I think it will be the visitors who nick this one after a great performance in the previous round.  Bulls by 4.