Friday, 12 April 2013

Super XV Big Match Preview - Chiefs v Reds


 
Everybody loves a bit of flair on the rugby field.  My mate describes it as 'getting free', which is a term I've rather come to like.  For example, if you see Julian Savea make a one handed pick up at full tilt to score a try, or an Israel Folau behind-the-back offload, you can shout "Wow, that was free", or even just "Freeeeee" – it just works.  It's also great because you can stick the word "too" infront of it when someone takes that step from showing a bit of flair to just being plain stupid – a Quade Cooper crossfield kick from behind his own line, for example, would be an instance of someone getting a bit too free.  And perhaps that is the only thing slowing this Chiefs side down at the moment.

This Chiefs outfit look like they've got all this year – speed and power out wide, power and speed in the pack, with everyone seemingly able to chuck 30 yard miss passes out of the back of their hand without batting an eyelid.  They could almost all swap positions and you wouldn't notice – at least until a scrum came along.  The only times they have look rattled at all this season is when someone has got them backpeddling, as the Stormers did in South Africa.  Guys like Tim Nanai-Williams and Aaron Cruden are all lethal going forward into space, but if you shut off their supply and get into their faces, being 'free' isn't going to help them – being smart is.  Even against the Kings, when things weren't completely going their way, they panicked a bit and started the lob the ball about with no real direction.  It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs cope when the heat is really on.

And the Reds are more than capable of bringing the sort of game that can scare the hosts.  Not exactly short of flair players themselves (the term "free" was essentially adopted for Quade), they have the speed out wide and the grunt up front to take this game to the Chiefs, and that is the only way they will stand a chance of coming away with a result.  They've got a pretty decent record against the home side as well, winning their last 3 encounters and, in fact, winning 9 of their last 10 against New Zealand teams.  With James Horwill fit and firing again and Liam Gill looking sharp, the Reds will need to get stuck into the Kiwi side from the off to ensure they can't settle and start playing with confidence, because when they do they will rip any side apart.

These are 2 sides with a heck of a lot of natural talent and it should make for a belter of a game, and hopefully by the end of it, the question as to is the "most free" will have been answered – but don't be surprised if it's not the side that wins.

 
Chiefs Team News

Chiefs coach Dave Rennie has made several changes to the team that beat the Blues before last week's bye for this week's match against the Reds.  The loose forward trio of Sam Cane, Tanerau Latimer and Liam Messam start, with Messam captaining the side from the No 8 position. Ben Tameifuna starts at prop with Michael Fitzgerald retaining his position at lock while Tim Nanai-Williams returns from injury to start on the wing. Fritz Lee moves to the bench and he is joined by prop Michael Kainga who is poised to make his Super Rugby debut.

Starting Line Up: Gareth Anscombe; Tim Nanai Williams, Richard Kahui, Bundee Aki, Asaeli Tikoirotuma, Aaron Cruden, August Pulu; Liam Messam (captain), Sam Cane, Tanerau Latimer; Brodie Retallick, Michael Fitzgerald; Ben Tameifuna, Hika Elliot, Toby Smith.
Subs: Rhys Marshall, Michael Kainga, Nick Crosswell, Fritz Lee, Brendon Leonard, Andrew Horrell, Patrick Osborne.

Key Player

Sam Cane.  The young flanker has been firing on all cylinders this season and he has a great battle with Liam Gill to look forward to on Saturday.  His ability to get over the ball at the breakdown will be absolutely key to not only giving his side turnover ball (from which they are probably the deadliest team in the tournament) but also slowing down the Reds' pill, putting pressure on the ever-flaky Quade Cooper.

 
Reds Team News

Pace man Rod Davies comes in for Digby Ione, who has a knee injury, on the wing in the only change to the Reds' starting XV.  Davies is one of two changes made to the matchday 22-man squad from the 34-33 victory in Dunedin against the Highlanders, with fellow winger Chris Feauai-Sautia recovering from a thigh injury to earn his place on the bench.

Starting Line Up:  Jono Lance; Dom Shipperley, Anthony Faingaa; Ben Tapuai, Rod Davies; Quade Cooper, Will Genia; Jake Schatz, Liam Gill, Eddie Quirk; James Horwill (captain), Rob Simmons; James Slipper, James Hanson, Greg Holmes.
Subs: Albert Anae, Ben Daley, Ed O'Donoghue, Jarrad Butler, Ben Lucas, Chris Feauai-Sautia, Aidan Toua.

Key Player

James Horwill.  The Reds captain was sorely missed in the early parts of the season, but now he's starting to hit his stride and the Reds are already looking like a better team.  He's a go-to guy when the going gets tough and he has the physicality to mix it up with the best – how he performs under pressure against a powerful Chiefs outfit will probably dictate how the Reds cope as a team.

 
Key Battle

Aaron Cruden v Quade Cooper.  The fight between the two 7s, Sam Cane and Liam Gill, should be explosive, but I'm really looking forward to seeing who comes out on top out of the fly halves, with Cruden looking really smooth this season and Cooper starting to purr now his old mucker is back at scrum half – plus he has a point to prove after Robbie Deans left him out of the Wallaby squad to take on the Lions this summer.  Both have gloriously talented backlines behind them and the game may well depend on who can find or create the most gaps for their strike runners.

 
Prediction

The Reds are looking sharp again with the return of several of their big-game players but, despite their great recent record against the current Super XV Champions, beating the Chiefs in Hamilton is a pretty tall order.  This one should be fast paced and frantic, and I'm going to lean towards the hosts – Chiefs by 5.

 
What else is happening across the Super Rugby World this weekend?

Highlanders v Brumbies:  Right, I'll finally stop predicting that the Highlanders will win – it must be some sort of a curse.  The Kiwi side are winless, and although the Brumbies were well below par last week, I think they'll come away with a win.  Brumbies by 10.

Blues v Hurricanes:  These 2 sides have been playing some brilliant rugby in patches but they are both desperate to find some measure of consistency.  There's not much to choose between these two and I reckon the battle between Piri Weepu and TJ Perenara will be key – for now, though, I'm going for an away win.  Canes by 4.

Rebels v Kings:  The Kings will be full of confidence after picking up a brilliant draw and try-bonus point away at the Brumbies last weekend, but I think the Rebels will have their tails up after a crucial win against the Force last week.  This one may be tight but I can see the hosts nicking it – Rebels by 3.

Force v Crusaders:  The Force were really disappointing last week, and it doesn't get any easier with the Crusaders coming to town.  The visitors are still missing some key players but proved in South Africa they still have the class to compete with the best, so I'm expecting them to grab a victory in Perth.  Crusaders by 12.

Stormers v Sharks:  This would have been my game of the week but the last time I picked these 2 sides they served up a sight about as appetising as Steve Borthwick in a tutu.  The Stormers will be hurt from their shock defeat against the Cheetahs and the pressure will really be on – I think the Sharks will nab a win, especially if Lambie has his kicking boots on again.  Sharks by 2.

Bulls v Cheetahs:  The Cheetahs are on a franchise-record equalling run of 5 consecutive victories, and playing some great rugby in the process.  I don't see that run ending anytime soon either, with the Bulls struggling to generate any real go-forward in their performances this season.  Cheetahs by 4.

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