We're coming to the last two games of the regular season,
which is usually the sign for drama to commence. I'm talking about last minute drop goals to
send a side down into the Championship, or last-gasp try bonus points that gets
a side into the top four – the sort of stuff that sends underwear sales through
the roof as the nerves jangle to almost unbearable levels. But this year, for once, there's not too much
happening to be honest.
Let's look at what there is to play for in the
Premiership. Survival? Well, London Welsh have already been
relegated after being docked points and suffering 10 straight losses, so that's
done and dusted. Home semi-final spots?
Saracens have theirs tied up and it would take a miracle to stop Leicester from
grabbing the other, whilst the remaining playoff spots look like they will almost
certainly be filled by Harlequins and Northampton. Even the coveted "Sh*t haircut of the
Year" award was sewn up months ago by Danny Care. What's left to play for? Well there is one almighty battle brewing for
the final Heineken Cup spot in 6th place (with Gloucester comfortable in
5th). And it's everyone's favourite sort
of scrap – a 3 way.
Exeter have hit some decent form and are the current
incumbents, but their trip to challengers Wasps will be a watershed moment on
who gets into Europe's premier competition next year. At first glance, all the evidence points to
an away win – the Chiefs have won their last two games away from Sandy Park
coming into Sunday's match up, including a superb win over Harlequins, whilst
Wasps have lost their last 3 games at Adams park (their worst run since 2010). The visitors have won 4 of their last 5 games,
in stark comparison to their hosts, who have now lost 5 on the bounce, and the
Chiefs hold a 100% record against Wasps in their last 5 encounters. In the bag then? Not quite.
Exeter have, perhaps unfairly, been given the tag of
'grafters' despite coming into the game as the League's third highest try
scorers, but if you look down their roster you do struggle to find the names of
players who would be known outside of those who follow Premiership Rugby avidly
(nerds, such as myself). Wasps, on the
other hand, now that they have a nearly full squad to choose from, can boast
such players as Ashley Johnson, Launchbury, Varndell, Haskell, Wade and Stephen
Jones to name but a few. There is a lot
of talent in that side and it has only been injuries to key players that has
seen their Premiership push stall after an impressive 5 consecutive victories. They're not exactly try-shy themselves
either, racking up the 5th highest in the league – with seemingly half of them
scored by their lightening back 3.
The third team in this European-love-triangle is Bath, but
with a difficult run in and an awful injury list (that has led to morbid 'warzone'
comparisons), I think the real contenders will be the 2 sides playing on
Sunday. And with a spot in next year's
Heineken Cup on the line, this one should be anything but uneventful.
Dai Young makes seven changes to the side humbled by
Leicester last weekend. Returning from
injury, Stephen Jones, T Rhys Thomas, Phil Swainston and James Haskell are all
named in the starting line-up. Andrea Masi and Joe Launchbury are also included
in the starting fifteen, having been rested last weekend, with Joe Simpson
starting at nine having been among the replacements at Welford Road.
Starting Line up: Daly,
Wade, Masi, Bell (c), Varndell, Jones, Simpson, Vunipola, Haskell, Johnson, Launchbury,
Palmer, Swainston, Thomas, Taulafo.
Subs: Lindsay,
Taylor, McIntyre, Wentzel, Jones, Davies, Bell, Southwell.
Key Player
Billy Vunipola. In
what will be his last home appearance for the Wycombe-based club, the giant
number 8 will want to go out with a bang.
His work rate is improving all the time but he needs to get his hands on
the ball as much as possible and ensure Gareth Steenson has a long afternoon on
the tackling front, making the big yardage he is capable of so that the flyers
out wide have space to shine.
Exeter Chiefs Team
News
Exeter keep the same 23 man squad that defeated London Irish
last weekend.
Starting Line
Up: Arscott, Nowell, Dollman, Shoemark,
Jess, Steenson, Thomas, Baxter (c), Scaysbrook, White, Welch, Mumm, Tui, Yeandle,
Sturgess.
Subs: Whitehead, Rimmer, Mitchell, Muldowney, Ewers,
Chudley, Slade, Whitten.
Key Player
Gareth Steenson. The
fly half has been sparkling form for the last couple of months and will need to
carry it on if the Chiefs are to get the win.
Always famed for his dead-eyed place kicking, he has recently developed
a cutting edge to his running game that has seen him slice through defences
with surprising regularity. Accuracy
from the boot and a clinical precision when it comes to taking chances will be
absolutely key for the Exeter man on Sunday.
Key Battle
James Haskell v James Scaysbrook. The "in" thing to talk about at the
moment, in terms of rugby, is the need for all sides to have an "out and
out" seven. I find this to be a lazy
comment overused by unimaginative pundits who are desperate to seem intelligent
– such as Dewi Morris. Nobody really
knows what an "out and out" seven really is – but most guess that
it's something like Neil Back, David Pocock or Richie McCaw. But South Africa won a world cup in 2007
without one of these characters, and I maintain that the key to a decent back
row is balance. Now, Haskell and
Scaysbrook may not be the most subtle of 7s but they both do a good job of
dominating collisions and ensuring their teams get onto the front foot. The battle between these two at the breakdown
is going to be key – not necessarily in terms of ball steals, but in terms of
who can smash the other backwards and provide his team with front foot
ball. It should be a power-packed
encounter and I can see the victor going a long way to getting his side a
crucial win.
Prediction
Wasps have hit a bit of a sticky patch form-wise but at
Adams Park they can still be a heck of a tough team to beat, especially now
they have some of their key players back.
The Chiefs will be determined not to slip out of the European places
after getting a taste for it this year but I can see home advantage tipping the
scales in a match that could go right down to the wire. If the Wasps pack can step up in the set
piece, and I think they will – they'll nick it. Wasps by 4.
What else is happening across the Aviva Premiership this
weekend?
Bath v Leicester Tigers: The hosts are in the midst of an injury
crisis but have won their last 4 league matches at the Rec, but it is difficult
to see them continuing that run against a fully fit and firing Leicester side
that have picked up a Premiership-best 32 points on away fixtures this year.
Leicester by 9.
Gloucester v Saracens: The Cherry and Whites simply have to pick
up a win in order to continue their push for play off places, whilst Sarries
can afford (in theory) to sit back, having sewn up a home quarter final
spot. Fat chance of that though, with
1st place still not sealed. Despite
shuffling their side, I think we'll see an away win. Saracens by 8.
London Irish v London
Welsh: The two Exiles will face off
against each other in a bit of a dead rubber game, with the men in Red already
relegated and Irish miles off a Heineken Cup spot. Both sides will be playing for pride but I
can see the hosts getting the win to ensure their fans leave with smiles on
their faces. Irish by 10.
Worcester Warriors v
Harlequins: Worcester's mid-table
obscurity and a run of poor results has seen Director of Rugby Richard Hill
given the sack, and it's hard to see them getting a win this weekend with
nothing really to play for. Quins still
need to seal a playoff spot so I think they'll grab a comfortable win. Quins by 12.
Northampton Saint v
Sale Sharks: The Sharks have
finished well this year after an abysmal opening half to the season, but once
again they have nothing really to play for.
Like Harlequins, the Saints need another win to secure themselves a
place in the playoffs once again, and I think we'll see a solid home victory. Saints by 16.
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