When I was 18, I went on my first 'Lads' holiday to Dublin to watch a European Cup Quarter Final. My father had also arranged to go with some of his mates on the same weekend. Thankfully, our two groups managed to stay well clear of one other – I'd convinced myself that the reason for this was that my old man didn't want to embarrass me, but in reality I've come to realise he didn't want an acne-ridden adolescent and his chums slowing him down on what transpired to be a fairly intense pub crawl. I say, fairly intense, I mean roughly 24 pints of Guinness in a single day (impressive). When we returned home, and upon seeing my dad's stomach swollen up like a Guinness-filled water balloon, my mother hit the roof and reeled off just about every health implication imaginable that would be associated with drinking the average weekly intake of a small Irish village in a single day. At this point, my father leapt onto the internet, printed off a fact sheet, and smugly announced that there were less calories in a pint of the black stuff than there were in a pint of 'healthy' freshly squeezed orange juice. Yes, this was the moment I was introduced to the irrelevant statistic, and I've been a fan ever since.
The Sharks will certainly be hoping that their previous
record against the Crusaders will be proven to be an irrelevant statistic post
their match in Durban on Friday night.
The stat which is being reeled off to anyone who will listen is that out
of the 16 matches played between these two sides, the Sharks have won just
2. That's right, a win ratio of
12.5%. They can try to console
themselves that those 2 wins came in Durban, but even that is of little comfort
when you consider that the Crusaders have won the other 4 played there, and in
fact their last victory against the Kiwi side was way back in 2007. No matter how much you try and ignore the
statistics, they are pretty overwhelming.
But the stat that the visitors will be concerned about in
the build up to the game is that so many of their experienced campaigners and
star All-Blacks seem to be dropping out of the side due to injuries, sabbaticals
(McCaw) or pesky new-born children (Carter).
The Crusaders are now without Corey Flynn, McCaw, Kieran Read, Carter
and Israel Dagg (although he returns to the bench), but the absence of their
international stars didn't seem to bother them against the Stormers last week,
when a phenomenal rear-guard effort and strong performance in the set piece saw
them snatch a superb 19 – 14 win. Quite
how much this bodies-on-the-line display will have taken out of the Crusaders
may well be a key factor in this game.
The Sharks, meanwhile, have enjoyed a restful week off
following their demolition of the Rebels the previous week. The Crusaders, though, will be a far tougher
nut to crack and their last outing against a top side – the Brumbies – ended in
a humbling as they were blown away by the pace and precision of their inventive
opposition. That said, the Sharks still
sit top of the South African conference with only one loss, despite several
stuttering performances which may in part be due to a couple of their big
runners – in the substantial shapes of Jean Deysel and Willem Alberts –
suffering injuries. They'll need to
generate their momentum from somewhere if they are to end their awful run
against the Crusaders on Friday.
But all these statistics are rendered pointless come Friday
evening when the referee blows his whistle.
These 2 sides both know they have 80 minutes to smash into each other
and change that one statistic that truly matters above all others – the one in
bright lights on the scoreboard.
Sharks coach John Plumtree has made several changes to the
side that thumped the Rebels a fortnight ago.
The only change to the Sharks pack that played the Rebels before their
bye is Jannie du Plessis starting at tighthead prop and Wiehahn Herbst dropping
down to the replacements bench with Ryan Kankowski. In the backs winger Lwazi Mvovo's hand
injury means that JP Pietersen moves across to his wing with Odwa Ndungane taking
up the other wing, whilst captain Francois Steyn moves back to fullback with
his spot in the centres being taken by Meyer Bosman.
Starting Line
up: Francois Steyn; Odwa Ndungane,
Paul Jordaan, Meyer Bosman, JP Pietersen; Patrick Lambie, Cobus Reinach; Keegan
Daniel (captain), Marcell Coetzee, Jacques Botes; Franco van der Merwe,
Pieter-Steph du Toit; Jannie du Plessis, Kyle Cooper, Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: Craig
Burden, Wiehahn Herbst, Anton Bresler, Ryan Kankowski, Charl McLeod, Riaan
Viljoen, Louis Ludik/S'bura Sithole.
Key Player
Patrick Lambie. The
baby-faced fly-half may look like he has just walked off the set of Sesame
Street but he is a dangerous operator from 10 for the Sharks. With the team yet to fully click this season,
aside from their rout of the hapless Rebels, there's extra pressure on Lambie
to bring his powerful runners into the match on the gainline and get the Sharks
the go-forward that they desperately require to pose a threat.
Crusaders Team
News
Crusaders coach Todd Blackadder makes four changes to the
starting team that defeated the Stormers at Newlands. Ben Funnell replaces the injured Corey Flynn
at hooker, whilst Andy Ellis returns to half-back, with Willi Heinz moving to
the bench. Zac Guildford moves to the left wing to replace Johnny McNicholl,
who fractured his right fibula against the Stormers, with Adam Whitelock
selected on the right wing.
Starting Line up: Tom
Marshall; Adam Whitelock, Robbie Fruean, Ryan Crotty, Zac Guildford; Tyler
Bleyendaal, Andy Ellis; Luke Whitelock, Matt Todd, George Whitelock (captain);
Samuel Whitelock, Luke Romano; Owen Franks, Ben Funnell, Wyatt Crockett.
Subs: Codie
Taylor, Joe Moody, Dominic Bird, Jordan Taufua, Willi Heinz, Telusa Veainu,
Israel Dagg.
Key Player
Robbie Fruean. The
big centre has yet to fully hit his stride this season but the Sharks will know
that, when he's on his game, he's a nightmare to defend against, with the
speed, strength and footwork to break any line.
With so many of the Crusaders' stars out of action, Fruean will be
relied on to provide the X-Factor to break down what is sure to be a stingy
home defence.
Marcell Coetzee v Matt Todd.
The young Shark is the latest in a long line of ultra-physical flankers
that the South Africans seem to reel off the production line on a frighteningly
consistent basis, but he has more to his game than just aggression and brute
force. Quick around the park and sharp
over the ball, Coetzee has made waves at both Super Rugby and International
levels, and Matt Todd – filling in for Richie McCaw whilst the legendary All
Black is off sipping cocktails in the sun (presumably) – will have to be at his
best to shut down his influence. The
Canterbury man has impressed in McCaw's absence, scoring a key try last week,
and if the Crusaders are to get the win he will have to be disruptive as an
ADHD toddler on a sugar binge at the breakdown.
Prediction
You write the Crusaders off at your peril – as I realised
after last week – and both sides look to be missing key individuals. But despite the abysmal record the Sharks
have against their opponents, I think that Durban is an incredibly tough place
to win and I can see the Crusaders pack potentially struggling in this encounter. Despite partially expecting to once again
have my prediction embarrassed by the Kiwi outfit, I'm leaning towards a Sharks
win. Sharks by 6.
Let's see what else is happening this weekend in Super
Rugby:
Blues v
Highlanders: It seems every week I
expect the Highlanders to break their duck and every week I'm wrong. That's not going to stop me having another go
though, as the Blues have hit a sticky patch themselves lately, so I think we'll
see a narrow away win. Highlanders by 4.
Brumbies v
Kings: The Brumbies host the Kings
in a home game which they should win comfortably, despite not looking quite as
smooth as they have in previous weeks.
The Kings have surprised many with how competitive they've been, but I
still expect a comfortable home win.
Brumbies by 20.
Hurricanes v
Waratahs: The Canes and the Tahs
have both been pretty inconsistent this year, and on paper this one certainly
looks close. The Waratahs have hit a
little bit of form of late but they've look a bit dodgy away from home, so I'm
going to go for a narrow victory for the hosts.
Hurricanes by 5.
Force v Rebels: This is an intriguing match between two
of Aussie rugby's basement sides. The
Force, on paper, look shorn of star quality this year, despite some standout
performances from Alfi Mafi, but the same can't be said of the Rebels, who just
disintegrated on their tour of South Africa.
Despite their confidence being at an all-time low, I imagine that the
relief of being back on Australian soil will be enough to banish the memories
of a nightmare few weeks. Rebels by 3.
Cheetahs v
Stormers: The Cheetahs really have
been a surprise package so far this year and some of their rugby has been great
to watch. A fired up Stormers side,
stung by criticism, may be too hot to handle however, and I can see the
visitors grabbing the points this week.
Stormers by 7.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Share your views