Six Nations Preview

Another year, another 6 Nations. 

It seems these days there are very few certainties in life, especially in the current economic climate.  Will I be able to one day afford a house?  Do bankers really know more about my money than I do?  Will anyone even care who the X Factor winner is this year?  Thankfully, the 6 nations is one of the few things we can rely on.  It’s 2 months of edge of your seat drama, first class rugby and many beers shared over friendly rivalries. Or at least, that is the BBC version of it, which I have already ranted about (see Front Row post on 29 January).
 

The first two points resonate as partly true, in that we are sure to be treated to moments of nerve shredding tension and the odd flash of unadulterated brilliance, but the fact is we will also be fed offensive amounts of turgid kick-tennis and mud wrestling as occasionally demanded by the bizarrely temperamental European weather.   And the friendly rivalries?  Come on. Try telling the Scots, Welsh, or anyone else for that matter that the matches against the English are not borderline life or death situations, with the honour of both nations hanging on the result.   I’m not saying there will be punch ups – but let’s face it, nothing is more satisfying than getting one over on your neighbours and earning the right to gloat about it for another year.  This is tribal passion at its best. And the best thing is: it happens every year.  And in the current climate that’s one certainty we can be grateful for.

 So, without further ado, let’s take a peek each side’s chances:

 Wales

Coach: Rob Howley (temporary)

Captain: Sam Warburton

Last Season: 1^st (Grand Slam)

Strength: Power, power and more power.  It seems very un-Welshlike, but when your numbers 12-14 average out at a gargantuan 17 stone, you’re not exactly dainty.  Protagonists Roberts, Davies, Cuthbert and North will be hoping their pack can get them quick ball to take advantage of.

Weaknesses: Form, confidence, and an injury list as long as Peter Jackson epic, which has meant playing a version of spin the bottle to decide who their second row is going to be.  Their pack is relatively inexperienced, and if they take a battering early on, it will be difficult to pick them back up.

What’s the deal?: If there ever was a schizophrenic rugby team, it’s the Welsh.  The Grand Slam Champions backed up their fantastic triumph in early 2012 by promptly losing an almost impressive 7 games on the bounce, including another embarrassing defeat to their bogey side, Samoa, in the autumn.  However, if the Welsh get their tails up and their swagger back, there’s no doubting they are a dangerous side.  A lot will depend on whether their injury-stricken pack will be able to generate enough good ball off the set piece for their frankly absurdly large backline to get their hands on front-foot ball – if they do they are impossible to stop behind the gainline.

Watch out for: Jonathan Davies.  The Scarlets centre is possibly the most underrated player in Europe – he is a strong runner but also has great feet and delicate hands, meaning he can act as a linkman between his halfbacks and the mutants Wales have out on the wing, and with 8 tries in 28 starts, he knows how to sniff out a try.  Listen out as well for his namesake commentating for the BBC.  You’ll know when he’s commentating because he’ll reach a pitch only dogs can hear and you’ll have a sudden an uncontrollable urge to put your fist through the screen.  Also, as an aside, I’d like the spectacular 15-man-maul make a reappearance after the Welsh unveiled it last Autumn.

Prediction: 4^th.

 

England

Coach: Stuart Lancaster

Captain: Chris Robshaw

Last Season: 2nd

Strength: Mobility.  For the first time in years, England don’t have a pack that resembles the size (and occasionally flexibility and fitness) of a weight-watchers group on a trip to Skegness.  England possess a slightly smaller but fast pack that could dominate the breakdown by simply running opposition packs off the park and hitting rucks with a level of intensity the other side can’t maintain.

Weaknesses: Size.  England’s strength is also a potential weakness.  England’s heaviest player in the pack is number 8 Ben Morgan, at 18 stone 4, and only second row Joe Launchbury and prop Dan Cole also touch 18 stone mark.  These weights might seem, frankly, a health concern to most normal people, but it really isn’t particularly big by modern day standards.  If the conditions mean England can’t spread the ball wide or use quick ball, the team will get dragged into a slugging-match at close quarters where there is the potential to get bullied.

What’s the deal?:  After encouraging showings last Six Nations and in South Africa,  England rescued a potentially disappointing Autumn series with a crown jewel of all victories, a thumping win over the All Blacks.  Of course, this sent the previously miserable English press into a frenzy which has lead to assumptions that the Six Nations title is England’s to lose this time round.  However, the side is still incredibly inexperienced with Dan Cole the ‘old head’ at only 25 years of age (despite looking like a portly Victor Meldrew), with 35 caps under his belt – expectation must be measured.  That said, England have the potential to do well.  A mobile, aggressive pack can generate quick ball for livewire scrumhalves Ben Youngs and Danny Care to utilise, and behind the scrum they have dangerous runners such as Manu Tuilagi, Chris Ashton and Mike Brown.  The big question will be whether they can handle a dogfight in the mud if necessary.

Watch out for: Joe Launchbury.  Despite looking like an overgrown 13-year-old, the lock from Wasps is enjoying a burgeoning reputation after outstanding displays against the Southern Hemisphere giants.  Mobile round the park and aggressive in the loose, he topped England’s tackle charts against the All Blacks with astonishing 14.  His inexperience will be targeted but England are comfortable he has a mature (yet baby-faced) head on young shoulders.

Prediction: 2nd.

Ireland

Coach: Declan Kidney

Captain: Jamie Heaslip

Last Season: 3rd

Strength: Defence.  The Irish are the stubborn and frenzied defenders, especially when roared on by a partisan Dublin crowd, and are the masters of the ‘choke’ tackle – holding attackers up off the ground in order to win turnover ball off the referee.  With brutes such as Sean O’Brien and Donnacha Ryan lurking in the depths of their pack, and the old pro O’Driscoll marshalling the backline, attacking sides will have to make sure their runners are well supported.

Weaknesses:  Set piece.  The Irish scrum was obliterated last year at Twickenham and questions were asked of Cian Healey and Mike Ross.  They’ve certainly been in decent enough fettle for Leinster since then, but whether or not they can transfer this to the international stage remains to be seen.  The lineout is also looking a bit ropey with lead man Paul O’Connell missing and Rory Best having a disappointing throwing success rate of 71% in the Heineken Cup rate.

What’s the deal?: After receiving an absolute pasting in the final test against the All Blacks in the summer, and then putting in a performance about as accurate as an ape with a slingshot, the Irish have bounced back well, putting in a stunningly efficient and creative performance against the usually impressive Argentineans.  They will be hoping this is not just a flash in the pan and that their big runners such as Heaslip, Healy and O’Brien can provide enough momentum for their exciting wingers Simon Zebo and Craig Gilroy to take advantage of.  If they can secure their own first-phase ball and bring the skills of O’Driscoll and Kearney into play, the Irish will be a force to be reckoned with.

Watch out for: Craig Gilroy.  The flying Ulster man is a fantastically balanced runner and impressed in his debut against Argentina, scoring one try and laying on two others.  Possibly the first genuine crowd pleaser the Irish have had since Michael Flatley, Gilroy will be hoping to get the ball in hand as much as possible.

Prediction: 3rd.

 

France

Coach: Philippe Saint-Andre

Captain: Pascal Pape

Last Season: 4th

Strength: Balance.  The French look to have a fantastically balanced side this season, with some serious grunt in the pack and backs alike in the form of Louis Picamoles and Florian Fritz, whilst Wesley Fofana and Huget provide the twinkle-toes out wide.  Their pack, when in the mood, are as good as anyone in world rugby as they proved bullying the Australians with such ferocity that the Wallabies were slated for ‘cowardice’ back home.  To be fair, with that French pack charging towards you, the difference between cowardice and common sense is pretty small.

Weaknesses: The French.  Which France will show up?  Scientists could discover how to open up a wormhole in space in less time than it would take to find out why the French are so flaky.  If things don’t go their way early on, then they tend to just give up and look as if they wish they were back in bed.

What’s the deal?: Following the Autumn Internationals confidence in the French side is ominously high.  After a poor six nations last year, they will be wanting to reassert themselves at Europe’s top table and the French sides’ showings in the Heineken Cup this year, especially Clermont, is certainly encouraging for them.  If they start well they can be almost impossible to stop, with the power game of their pack providing space for speedsters such as Huget to exploit, the French are occasional practitioners of ‘Total Rugby’.  However, everybody else will be hoping that, when it comes to their game, the French will “just not feel like it”.

Watch out for: Frederic Michalak.  Ok he isn’t exactly a new name, but he seems refreshed playing in Toulon with the likes of Wilkinson and Giteau.  He probably exemplifies the French in that he can either be brilliant, or fall apart if things don’t go his way.  It will be interesting to see how the mercurial playmaker sits at flyhalf as the majority of his rugby over the last two seasons has been played at 9 at club level.

Prediction: 1st. (No Grand Slam)
 

 

 

Italy

Coach: Jacques Brunel

Captain: Sergio Parisse

Last Season: 5th

Strength: The pack.  The Italians are always competitive up front and can cause any side a problem in the set piece.  Gladiators such as Martin Castrogiovanni and the sublime Sergio Parisse are players who can dominate proceedings if they are given the platform to get into the game.  A solid set piece and accuracy at the breakdown from the rest of the pack will mean that these two figures can start to dominate the fringes.

Weaknesses: Fly half.  Not since the days of the legendary maestro, Diego Dominguez, have the Italians had a true creator or reliable goalkicker at 10.  The current incumbent, Luciano Orquera, is a solid enough player for Zebre but lacks the vision or consistency to offer a threat at international level.  The Italian backs will continue to struggle unless they find a 10 who can create space.

What’s the deal?: Argentina set an example in the Rugby Championship by going on the attack, which is against their usual instinct, and impressed.  Italy must now follow suit.  With Treviso impressing at home in the Heineken Cup and Pro 12, it’s clear that the Italian backs can be competitive – they now need to throw off the shackles and over reliance on the pack at international level.

Watch out for: Tommaso Benvenuti.  The Treviso centre is a player of genuine class who has footwork and speed in abundance and a rock solid defence.  He will be desperate to get his hands on the ball and prove to the world that the Italians are not just about scrums, rucks and pasta.

Prediction: 6^th.

 

Scotland

Coach: Scott Johnson

Captain: Kelly Brown

Last Season: 6th

Strength: Aggression.  The Scots can stir up that Celtic passion like no other, and when they are in the mood it is incredibly difficult to get quick ball against them – that is if you can get the ball off them in the first place.  With giants such as the world’s largest boyband member, Richie Gray, and cave-troll Jim Hamilton, in their ranks, the Scots can dominate the contact area when fired up.

Weaknesses: Centres.  The Scots have some serious pace and guile out wide for the first time in memory, with Visser, Maitland and Hogg capable of scoring tries galore, but whether or not they receive quality ball is another matter.  Matt Scott and Sean Lamont are solid enough in defence but don’t add enough of a threat to worry the opposition, allowing a drift to easily cut down the space for the flyers.

What’s the deal?:  A new coach and another new dawn for Scotland.  They are in the same position as England were last season.  New players, a new coach, a new captain and, best of all, no pressure.  The Scots have nothing to lose and can use that to their advantage – they love the underdog tag.  There is some genuine class in their side, even if their our concerns about the centres and the mobility of their pack.  If they can dominate the tight exchanges as they are capable of, then they could spring a few suprises.

Watch out for: Tim Visser.  The flying Dutchman will be hoping to stake a Lions claim this 6 nations after topping the scoring charts in the Pro12 league for the last 3 seasons.

Prediction: 5^th.