Match Preview - Wales v Ireland

What a way to open up the tournament.  Two Celtic nations treading a self-esteem tightrope, both desperate for win to set their tournament off in style. After both suffering awful summer tours, as well as poor Autumns (although the Irish win against Argentina was highly impressive), this clash has the feel of a 12^th round of a boxing match, with 2 bloodied opponents looking for just one knockout blow that the other won’t be able to get back up from.  Win, and the self-belief will return, and there is no doubting both sides have the potential to some damage this year.  Lose, and confidence will plummet further, meaning the next two months could become pretty uncomfortable.

 

Rewind a year and you’ll realise there may be a few vendettas lurking around.  Wales won the game courtesy of a penalty that was the result of an alleged ‘tip tackle’ by Stephen Ferris.  In reality, I’ve seen butterflies that are more dangerous, but Leigh Halfpenny gleefully kicked the 3 points and Wales had taken another giant step towards a Grand Slam.  This is of course after Warren Gatland had previously announced that the Welsh and Irish players “don’t like each other very much”, which surprised members of both sides as much as did wind everyone else up.

 

Wales Team News

Sam Warburton clings on to the 7 shirt, with the outstanding Justin Tipuric on the bench.  Every second row in Wales seems to be injured, so Dragons lock Andrew Coombs makes his debut with Harlequins’ Olly Kohn on the bench.  Wales will be praying for no further injuries or else they will be searching the pub leagues for anyone who fancies a game.  Elsewhere, George North and Adam Jones return the left wing and loosehead prop respectively (I assume repectively, unless Howley has made a gutsy tactical call), and Dan Biggar replaces the injured Rhys Priestland at flyhalf.

Starting lineup: Halfpenny; Cuthbert, Davies, Roberts, North; Biggar, Phillips; Jenkins, Rees, Jones; Coombs, Evans; Shingler, Warburton (capt), Faletau.

Replacements: Owens, James, Mitchell, Kohn, Tipuric, L Williams, Hook, S Williams.

Key Player

Much will depend on Adam Jones anchoring the scrum effectively, and the big Welsh yeti’s return will be invaluable after the Welsh scrum was decimated by the Argentinians and Samoans in the autumn. 

Ireland Team News

Simon Zebo and Craig Gilroy start on the wings, whilst Rob Kearney makes up an exciting back 3.  Sean O’Brien and Brian O’Driscoll return from injury, with the impressive Ulster flanker Chris Henry named on the bench, whilst Rory Best comes in at hooker for the injured Richard Strauss.

Starting line up: R Kearney; C Gilroy, B O'Driscoll, G D'Arcy, S Zebo; J Sexton, C Murray; C Healy, R Best, M Ross; M McCarthy, D Ryan; P O'Mahony, S O'Brien, J Heaslip (cpt).

Replacements: S Cronin, D Kilcoyne, D Fitzpatrick, C Henry, D O'Callaghan, E Reddan, R O'Gara, K Earls.

 

Key Player

Veteran Brian O’Driscoll is always key to the way Ireland play, but he will be even more essential as the Irish are desperate to avenge last season’s defeat and get off to a winning start.  His leadership in the backs will be key to stopping the Welsh overgrown fairies from crashing through the defensive line.

Key Battle

Young Craig Gilroy will have his hands full with Welsh giant George North.  There’s no doubting Gilroy is the form winger currently, but it will be interesting to see how he handles the sheer power of North.  Both men have Lions aspirations, so expect them to really have a go at each other.

 

Head to Head

·         Wales have lost their last 7 matches, scoring only 7 tries in the process

·         Prior to the win over Argentina in their final match of 2012, Ireland had lost five straight Tests, scoring just two tries in the process

·         Despite Wales winning their last 3 games against Ireland,  the Irish have won 10 out of their last 13 games against Wales in Cardiff.

 

Prediction

I’m guessing this will be a feisty game could turn on a single moment of hot-headedness.  Unfortunately for the Welsh, I think the Irish will avenge their loss last year and come away with a win of 4 points.