Super XV Season Preview - Australia

 

Just when the Northern Hemisphere season is starting to move slowly towards the business end, the sun has just about risen on another year of Super XV rugby for our brothers down south.  My girlfriend complained, "It never ends" (the rugby that is), as I gleefully set up my TV box to record the opening round of SANZAR's premier competition that will take us all the way up to the Lions tour and beyond.  It might seem a bit silly that us northern types get a little bit excited about games played 1000s of miles away, but in reality that often feels like the gulf between the entertainment values produced as well.  In fact Sky Sports recently did a pretty decent advert for the Super XV that sums it up nicely.  I would go as far as saying, with confidence, that it is Dewi Morris' finest contribution to TV – but that's not too impressive, considering his usual work involves loudly agreeing with smarter pundits than himself or making absurd suggestions about team selection which are then widely discredited by his peers.

 

And so, with appetite firmly whetted and imaginary barbecues raring to go, let's preview the chances of the Australian teams for the 2013 season.  And remember, they have an added incentive of a test series against the Lions to play for…

ACT Brumbies

Head Coach: Jake White

Captain: Ben Mowen

What happened last year? The Brumbies missed out on the playoffs by the skin of their teeth after a disappointing defeat against the out-of-sorts Auckland Blues, but the fact they managed to get to that position in the first place was a pretty remarkable turnaround.  Gone were stalwarts Adam Ashley Cooper, Rocky Elsom and Matt Giteau, but up stepped the likes of speedster Henry Speight and the awesome Michael Hooper, who helped the Brumbies rack up a superb 6 wins in their last 8 matches.  The season showed us two things – firstly, Jake White is one hell of a coach who gets the best from his players, and secondly, the Brumbies have some seriously exciting young lads who capable of mixing it with the big boys, with fullback Jesse Mogg also catching the eye.

How do they look this year? Well, at first glance you would say that losing Michael Hooper could be a massive blow, given the impact the youngster had for both club and country, but they haven't exactly got a bad replacement in David Pocock.  Referred to by many as king of the breakdown, or at the very least, the heir to McCaw's throne, the Brumbies' exciting outside backs will be sure to benefit from plenty of turnover ball this year.  Also making an appearance is Clyde Rathbone – remember him?! The 31 year old, South African born winger is making a comeback 3 years after retiring due to injury – a remarkable story.  Elsewhere in the squad, the likes of Stephen Moore and other 'old heads' will be essential in holding this young team grounded and motivated.

Key Player: It has to be David Pocock.  He's such a threat in the tackle and at the breakdown that teams often have to change the way they usually play just to combat him.  And once you've taken the opposition out of their comfort zone like that, I think you've taken a major step to victory.

Prediction: I'm confident, with White at the helm, the Brumbies will avoid 'second season syndrome' with their exciting team.  I still think the Reds have just a bit too much class in their squad for the Brumbies to top the group, but I think it will be between these two for top spot in the Aussie conference.  2nd in conference (5th overall, losing in QFs).

 

Western Force

Head Coach: Michael Foley

Captain: Matt Hodgson

What happened last year? Loss, loss and another loss.  A terrible season for the Force meant that they propped up the Aussie conference come July time and only avoided finishing dead-last thanks to the appalling Lions.  Winning only 3 of their 18 games, the Force scored only 30 tries last year – a record that even the likes of Saracens in the English Premiership would be disappointed with.  It seemed that the Force were struggling to cope with the fact they weren't the exciting, new team on the block any more – with that role being taken by the Melbourne Rebels – and as such they weren't able to recruit any real established spark to ignite their performances.  A great 45-19 home win against the Reds was just about the only positive the Force were able to pull out of 2012.

How do they look this year? Well, not particularly great, to be honest.  Michael Foley is apparently installing a really positive mind-set within the team but that will only take them so far, especially after they've lost such key individuals as Nathan Sharpe and David Pocock, and I don't think they've got any obvious replacements for these two.  Ben McCalman is a solid player in the middle and Nick Cummins has proven he can be the real deal out wide, but unless they get decent quick ball they won't be effective.  In Sam Norton-Knight, they've brought back a fly-half who, whilst in Europe, managed to prove he is about as reliable as an Alfa Romeo that's been constructed by drunk Frenchman, so a lot of pressure will fall on Kiwi scrumhalf Alby Mathewson to generate some space.  As a positive though, they are less likely than their rivals to lose key players to the Australian squad for the Lions tour, so that could be a chance to make up some ground.

Key Player: As I've mentioned, Mathewson has a huge role to play as a playmaker for the Force.  The New Zealand international, who's been out of All Blacks picture for a couple of years, will be desperate to impress this season and so will be looking to make an impact around the fringes of rucks and mauls.

Prediction: Looking through the Force squad, they just don't seem to have enough firepower in key positions.  Then again, neither did the Brumbies before last season…nevertheless, I think we'll see the Force trying to consolidate under Foley this year – we might see a couple more wins, but I still think they'll be propping up the Aussie conference come July, especially with 4 away games first up.  5th (14th).

Melbourne Rebels

Head Coach: Damien Hill

Captain: Gareth Delve

What happened last year? The Rebels made a big stride last year in getting off the foot of the table and putting in some pretty decent performances along the way.  Unfortunately, they were also plagued by inconsistency, so great wins against the Crusaders and the Force were followed up by hidings from Wellington and the Lions.  Their firepower out-wide has never been in question – with the likes of Vuna, O'Connor and Beale all game-changers on their day, but their pack all too often got bossed about the park, despite the valiant efforts of recently appointed captain Gareth Delve.

How do they look this year? It's not been a year of huge change in Melbourne, with Danny Cipriani offloaded – to the relief of most Melbourne fans – and Scott Higginbotham being brought in, which count as perhaps the most notable changes.  However, the lack of depth in the tight-five is an issue that hasn't really been addressed and will be exposed as the season goes on.  If the Rebels can gain at least parity at the breakdown – and the likes of Higginbotham will be key to this – then they will be a real force to be reckoned with.

Key Player: Kurtley Beale.  The Wallaby Wizard didn't get the chance to impress as much as he would have liked last year with a persistent hamstring injury, but he looked pretty sharp for the Aussies during their end of season tour.  The word is that he will be playing 10 this year so he will be instrumental to getting the talented guys out wide into space.  Also keep an eye out for new signing Jason Woodward from Wellington – the young fly half has a real eye for a gap and is an exciting prospect.

Prediction: Despite a lot of big talk from the Melbourne camp, it's difficult to see how they can really challenge for the playoffs without a dominant tight-five combination.  They will pick up some exciting wins for sure, but I struggle to see them grinding out victories away in difficult places like Waikato or Canterbury against bigger packs when the rain is chucking down.  4th (10th).

 

Queensland Reds

Head Coach: Ewan McKenzie

Captain: James Horwill

What happened last year? The Reds left it late – very late – to make their drive for the playoffs last year.  The last round in fact.  A bonus point win over the Waratahs saw them snatch top spot in the Aussie Conference from under the Brumbies' noses after a season where injuries had severely stalled their title defence.  With Quade Cooper missing for so long and Scott Higginbotham in and out of the doctor's room more often than a hypochondriac prostitute, the side struggled for inspiration at times – so to make the playoffs at all was a pretty impressive achievement.

How do they look this year? Pretty good again.  Although there are no major signings, having a fighting fit Quade Cooper (literally, after his boxing debut) is something they were missing last year.  A lot will hinge on how they get on without the injured Will Genia for the first month or so of the season, as well as how they cope without Scott Higginbotham after the backrower's move to the Rebels.  The fire power they possess out wide is awesome, in the shape of Cooper, Ione and Shipperly, so there will be a lot of pressure on the pack to deliver quick ball, and especially on established forwards like James Horwill, Liam Gill and James Slipper.

Key Player: Liam Gill.  The outstanding openside topped the turnover charts last year with a staggering 2.4 turnovers per game on average, and the Reds will be hoping for more of the same this year – they can be deadly on the counter.  I'm also hoping to see some more of Chris F'Sautia – that kid looked electric whenever he played last year.

Prediction: I think we'll see a return to form for the Reds this year, and I expect to see them take the conference title, despite being chased by the Brumbies all the way.  Although the loss of Scott Higginbotham is a big one, they've got enough experience in their armoury to cope. 1st (2nd, runners up)

 

New South Wales Waratahs

Head Coach: Michael Cheika

Captain: Dave Dennis

What happened last year? Another pre-season of hype was followed by yet another season of disappointment for the 'Tahs.  With leaders such as Rocky Elsom, Dan Vickerman, Berrick Barnes and Drew Mitchell all spending much of the year out injured, they lost a lot of composure and the ability to close out close games – a prime example being their opening match which they lost to a last minute try from the Reds.  On the plus side, most of their losses were by less than a score, so they weren't a million miles away from showing up pretty well.

How do they look this year? Mentally, they may still be a little bit fragile after their calamitous season in 2012.  Leaders such as Vickerman, Elsom and Dean Mumm have all abandoned ship and it's difficult to guess how the team will work without those characters.  However, the signing of outstanding flanker Michael Hooper is a step in the right direction, whilst left-field acquisition Israel Folou – the ex-Rugby League star and Aussie Rules pro – could prove to be a piece of inspired thinking, especially if he slots in at fullback.  Cheika's task will be to ensure this relatively new team gels as quickly as possible.

Key Player: Berrick Barnes. The perennially underrated fly-half-cum-full-back is one of the smartest players out there and the 'Tahs look markedly better directed with him in the side.  If he can control things from 10, buying territory when things aren't going so well, then the team will settle quicker and they could pick up some decent results.
 

Prediction: It's time for the likes of Barnes, Ashley-Cooper and Tom Carter to take over the mantle of leading the side.  It might take time to click, but I think this Waratahs side will eventually come good – perhaps too late to have a crack at the playoffs, but certainly a step up from last year.  3rd (8th)