Leicester v Saracens. A while ago, it used to just be an occasionally tasty encounter that the Tigers would usually walk smugly away from with a win. These days, however, it's much more of a grudge match, with both sides vying for places at English rugby's summit following Saracen's emergence as a real force, thanks mainly to a healthy cash injection and the shrewd management of Nigel Wray. Now, you'd be more likely to see David Haye and Dereck Chisora start a loving relationship than see Tigers or Sarries sparing any quarter for each other on the pitch. These two have produced two of the most pulsating Premiership Finals in recent times, battling it out in 2010 and 2011, winning one each. Now a new player, Harlequins, has joined the party, but that hasn't taken anything away from the ferocity of these encounters, which are rarely short of drama or ill-feeling.
Leicester come off the back of their first defeat in six,
which doesn't sound bad –especially since it was away at Harlequins and they
grabbed a bonus point without their international contingent – but it masks the
fact that the Tigers have been significantly short of their best this
season. Lacking in precision and tries
in comparison to the phenomenal standards they were producing at this time last
year, the Midlanders seem to have been scraping by in 3rd gear – which is
ominous for everyone else in a way, as they wait for them to finally hit their
straps. Against Harlequins, there were
plenty of positives – the lineout was good, they made line breaks and got
themselves into good positions, but their control of the ball at key moments
was startlingly poor at times, getting themselves turned over when there was no
real pressure. This is an area that has
to be tightened up if they are to unlock the already stingy Saracens defence.
As for Sarries, well they crowned their first match on their
artificial ground with a convincing win over Exeter, picking up a rare try
bonus point in the process. With England
veteran Charlie Hodgson pulling the strings majestically fly half, the men in
black unleashed an endless barrage of powerful carries through the middle and
off the fly half's shoulder, and with Exeter unable to slow the ball down,
there was only ever going to be one result.
The impressive Will Fraser was dominant at the breakdown, but he faces a
tougher prospect this week as he comes across Julian Salvi and returning
England international, Tom Croft.
So, claws sharpened, let's see how the new big adversaries
in the Premiership are plotting each other's demise, and who will be taking the
home semi-final spot come Saturday night.
Full-back Geordan Murphy returns as captain on his 297th
start, Croft returns to the back row, while Ed Slater, Matt Smith, Dan Bowden
and George Ford all play, with Manu Tuilagi, Thomas Waldrom and Toby Flood back
on international duty.
Starting Line up: Murphy
(c); Hamilton, Smith, Bowden, Thompstone; Ford, Harrison; Ayerza, Hawkins,
Mulipola; Slater, Kitchener; Croft, Salvi, Crane.
Subs: Chuter,
Brookes, Balmain, Deacon, Thorpe, Young, Cornwell, Tait.
Key Player
Tom Croft. The England
man will have his work cut out in the lineout against Steve Borthwick, one of
the best operators around, but the big flanker will have an even bigger job to
perform in the loose. Against Quins, the
Tigers' ball retention was poor, especially in the wider channels, and this is
where Croft excels. He impressed against
London Welsh in his last appearance during his comeback from a horrific neck
injury, and he will need to be at his best to dominate the breakdown here and
keep the Tigers' machine purring.
Saracens Team News
Saracens' Schalk Brits replaces Mako Vunipola, who is with
England, and Rhys Gill also returns to the front row. Alistair Hargreaves partners Steve Borthwick
at lock, Richard Wigglesworth is in at scrum-half for Neil de Kock.
Starting Line up: Wyles;
Short, Tomkins, Powell, Strettle; Hodgson, Wigglesworth; Gill, Brits, Stevens;
Borthwick (c), Hargreaves; Wray, Fraser, Joubert.
Subs: Smit,
Auterac, du Plessis, Kruis, Melck, de Kock, Mordt, Taylor.
Key Player
Will Fraser. The
Sarries' openside's stock is rising by the match, but he will face a stern test
against experienced Aussie Julian Salvi on Saturday. Salvi hasn't been at his best lately, but
Fraser will know that he will have to take another step up to nullify the
Leicester man's attempts at slowing the ball down. If he gets on top, expect that Saracens
momentum to build and build until the defence eventually breaks.
Key Battle
George Ford v Charlie Hodgson. Despite Ford's performances not being quite
up to scratch this year, it's always fascinating to watch the student v the
master. Hodgson has been imperious so
far this season but Ford certainly got the upper hand last year, setting up a
try and kicking nervelessly to book Leicester a place in the Premiership
final. However, Ford's confidence seems
fragile at the moment, and in a tight game, the kickers may well be the
difference – if Ford misses early on, he may struggle.
Prediction
This game is always a nail-biter and it's disappointing that
both sides are missing their international stars. Nonetheless, it will be a full blooded and nervy
affair which may well be decided by the boot.
I think that Leicester's form has been patchy but Saracens haven't been
travelling all that well this season (as in they've not been great in away
games – with their home ground just finished, they've technically been
travelling most of the season), and I think the Welford Road factor will swing
a tight match. Leicester by 4 points.
Gloucester v
Worcester Warriors: Worcester's away form has been poor this year and
Gloucester are looking like they're on the up.
I think we'll see a convincing win for the Cherry and Whites. Gloucester by 15.
Sale Sharks v
Harlequins: Despite Manchester being a notoriously bad difficult place to
get a win on a Friday night, and the fact Sale have hit a run of form in the
nick of time, Quins have too much about them to lose – even without the
instrumental Danny Care. Harlequins by
6.
Exeter Chiefs v
London Welsh: Exeter's campaign has been severely derailed of late but
they've got the perfect opportunity to correct that as London Welsh, who have
slid alarmingly into the relegation scrap, come to the south coast. Chiefs by 10.
Northampton Saints v
Bath: A difficult one to call. Bath have hit a rich vein of form and are
looking dangerous, whilst Saints stopped the rot with a decent win last
week. I think home-advantage will sway
an otherwise inseparable encounter – Saints by 2.
London
Irish v Wasps: Despite Irish staging a mini-recovery, Wasps
look awesome at the minute and are playing a great brand of rugby. The wide Madejski pitch will suit their
flying wingers and should nab them the win.
Wasps by 8.
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