Friday, 22 February 2013

Aviva Premiership Big Match Preview - Leicester Tigers v Saracens


Leicester v Saracens.  A while ago, it used to just be an occasionally tasty encounter that the Tigers would usually walk smugly away from with a win.  These days, however, it's much more of a grudge match, with both sides vying for places at English rugby's summit following Saracen's emergence as a real force, thanks mainly to a healthy cash injection and the shrewd management of Nigel Wray.  Now, you'd be more likely to see David Haye and Dereck Chisora start a loving relationship than see Tigers or Sarries sparing any quarter for each other on the pitch.  These two have produced two of the most pulsating Premiership Finals in recent times, battling it out in 2010 and 2011, winning one each.  Now a new player, Harlequins, has joined the party, but that hasn't taken anything away from the ferocity of these encounters, which are rarely short of drama or ill-feeling.

Leicester come off the back of their first defeat in six, which doesn't sound bad –especially since it was away at Harlequins and they grabbed a bonus point without their international contingent – but it masks the fact that the Tigers have been significantly short of their best this season.  Lacking in precision and tries in comparison to the phenomenal standards they were producing at this time last year, the Midlanders seem to have been scraping by in 3rd gear – which is ominous for everyone else in a way, as they wait for them to finally hit their straps.  Against Harlequins, there were plenty of positives – the lineout was good, they made line breaks and got themselves into good positions, but their control of the ball at key moments was startlingly poor at times, getting themselves turned over when there was no real pressure.  This is an area that has to be tightened up if they are to unlock the already stingy Saracens defence.

As for Sarries, well they crowned their first match on their artificial ground with a convincing win over Exeter, picking up a rare try bonus point in the process.  With England veteran Charlie Hodgson pulling the strings majestically fly half, the men in black unleashed an endless barrage of powerful carries through the middle and off the fly half's shoulder, and with Exeter unable to slow the ball down, there was only ever going to be one result.   The impressive Will Fraser was dominant at the breakdown, but he faces a tougher prospect this week as he comes across Julian Salvi and returning England international, Tom Croft.

So, claws sharpened, let's see how the new big adversaries in the Premiership are plotting each other's demise, and who will be taking the home semi-final spot come Saturday night.

 
Leicester Team News

Full-back Geordan Murphy returns as captain on his 297th start, Croft returns to the back row, while Ed Slater, Matt Smith, Dan Bowden and George Ford all play, with Manu Tuilagi, Thomas Waldrom and Toby Flood back on international duty.

Starting Line up: Murphy (c); Hamilton, Smith, Bowden, Thompstone; Ford, Harrison; Ayerza, Hawkins, Mulipola; Slater, Kitchener; Croft, Salvi, Crane.
Subs: Chuter, Brookes, Balmain, Deacon, Thorpe, Young, Cornwell, Tait.

Key Player

Tom Croft.  The England man will have his work cut out in the lineout against Steve Borthwick, one of the best operators around, but the big flanker will have an even bigger job to perform in the loose.  Against Quins, the Tigers' ball retention was poor, especially in the wider channels, and this is where Croft excels.  He impressed against London Welsh in his last appearance during his comeback from a horrific neck injury, and he will need to be at his best to dominate the breakdown here and keep the Tigers' machine purring.

 
Saracens Team News

Saracens' Schalk Brits replaces Mako Vunipola, who is with England, and Rhys Gill also returns to the front row.  Alistair Hargreaves partners Steve Borthwick at lock, Richard Wigglesworth is in at scrum-half for Neil de Kock.

Starting Line up: Wyles; Short, Tomkins, Powell, Strettle; Hodgson, Wigglesworth; Gill, Brits, Stevens; Borthwick (c), Hargreaves; Wray, Fraser, Joubert.
Subs: Smit, Auterac, du Plessis, Kruis, Melck, de Kock, Mordt, Taylor.

Key Player

Will Fraser.  The Sarries' openside's stock is rising by the match, but he will face a stern test against experienced Aussie Julian Salvi on Saturday.  Salvi hasn't been at his best lately, but Fraser will know that he will have to take another step up to nullify the Leicester man's attempts at slowing the ball down.  If he gets on top, expect that Saracens momentum to build and build until the defence eventually breaks.

 
Key Battle

George Ford v Charlie Hodgson.  Despite Ford's performances not being quite up to scratch this year, it's always fascinating to watch the student v the master.  Hodgson has been imperious so far this season but Ford certainly got the upper hand last year, setting up a try and kicking nervelessly to book Leicester a place in the Premiership final.  However, Ford's confidence seems fragile at the moment, and in a tight game, the kickers may well be the difference – if Ford misses early on, he may struggle.

Prediction

This game is always a nail-biter and it's disappointing that both sides are missing their international stars.  Nonetheless, it will be a full blooded and nervy affair which may well be decided by the boot.  I think that Leicester's form has been patchy but Saracens haven't been travelling all that well this season (as in they've not been great in away games – with their home ground just finished, they've technically been travelling most of the season), and I think the Welford Road factor will swing a tight match.  Leicester by 4 points.

 
Let's take a peek at what's happening around the rest of the grounds:

Gloucester v Worcester Warriors: Worcester's away form has been poor this year and Gloucester are looking like they're on the up.  I think we'll see a convincing win for the Cherry and Whites.  Gloucester by 15.

Sale Sharks v Harlequins: Despite Manchester being a notoriously bad difficult place to get a win on a Friday night, and the fact Sale have hit a run of form in the nick of time, Quins have too much about them to lose – even without the instrumental Danny Care.  Harlequins by 6.

Exeter Chiefs v London Welsh: Exeter's campaign has been severely derailed of late but they've got the perfect opportunity to correct that as London Welsh, who have slid alarmingly into the relegation scrap, come to the south coast.  Chiefs by 10.

Northampton Saints v Bath:  A difficult one to call.  Bath have hit a rich vein of form and are looking dangerous, whilst Saints stopped the rot with a decent win last week.  I think home-advantage will sway an otherwise inseparable encounter – Saints by 2.

London Irish v Wasps: Despite Irish staging a mini-recovery, Wasps look awesome at the minute and are playing a great brand of rugby.  The wide Madejski pitch will suit their flying wingers and should nab them the win.  Wasps by 8.

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