Thursday, 14 February 2013

Super XV Season Preview - New Zealand


As part of our ongoing look at all things Super Rugby in the run up to the new season, and following on from yesterday's analysis of the Aussies' chances, let's turn our attention to the Kiwis and see what they'll have up their sleeve in 2013…


Auckland Blues

Head Coach: John Kirwan

Captain: Ali Williams

What happened last year?  Last season was a tale of the blues for the Blues (sorry, couldn't resist).  After reaching the semis the previous year, nobody expected them to crash and burn quite as they did last year, managing just 1 win in their first 10 matches and only 4 overall, finishing a huge 18 points adrift at the bottom of the NZ conference.  A defence as watertight as a sieve and a pretty ineffective attack were the main reasons for their disappointing showings, and sub-par seasons from big names like Ma'a Nonu, Rene Ranger and Tony Woodcock didn't help matters either.

How do they look this year? Well, very different for one.  They've lost a host of potentially key players, most notably Nonu, Woodcock, Wulf, Toeava, Munro, Daniel Braid, Stanley and Kaino who are still top-class performers on their day, but they still have some pretty decent blokes knocking about in the shape of Kevin Mealamu, Ali Williams, Luke Braid and Piri Weepu (who's now apparently 'trim' – I'll believe that when I see it, they said that about Andy Goode once and it lasted all of 2 months).  They have brought in some good signings in the shape of Highlanders pair Chris Noakes and Culum Retallick, but whether it's enough to cover the void left by the departures remains to be seen.

Key Player: Ali Williams.  Captain this year, he is going to have a huge job leading a team that is low on confidence after last season and the mass exodus that ensued.  The problem for the Blues last year was a lack of cohesion despite all the big names, so Williams needs to make sure he gets this new team playing for one another as soon as possible.

Prediction: I can't see the Blues improving unfortunately after losing so many players., despite maintaining a pretty decent pack. They just seem unsettled at the moment and lack any real spark in key areas, and if they don't get off to a good start it will be very hard for them to pick themselves up again.  5th in conference (13th Overall).


Waikato Chiefs

Head Coach: Dave Rennie

Captain: Craig Clarke and Liam Messam

What happened last year? The Chiefs defied those who had them down as long-shots for the title by smashing the Sharks 37-6 in one of the most one-sided Super XV finals in history.  Despite being viewed as lightweight and inexperienced in the pack, men like Craig Clarke, Hika Elliot and Liam Messam all stood up to be counted whilst prop Sona Taumalolo proved himself to be an unlikely try machine (from a range of 0.5 metres).  The Chiefs suffered a dip as the season drew in to a close, but still found themselves top of their conference and 2nd overall, thanks to a huge buffer built up by the remarkable 9 consecutive wins they built up after losing their opening match.  They then turned on the form again for the playoffs and the rest, as they say, is history.

How do they look this year? Not too different at first glance, but look closely and you'll find a couple of key players have left.  In the pack, Taumalolo and Kane Thompson have moved on, whilst in the backs, and perhaps most significantly, there is no Sonny Bill Williams.  The Chiefs will have to find somebody to replace their primary source of go-forward ball – Richard Kahui will have a big role to play this season.  Despite this, they have enough class in other areas of the team to mount a serious challenge again this year.

Key Player: Sam Cane.  The young flanker has been a revelation and is a jackal over the ball in the contact area.  His performances will be even more critical this year after the Chiefs have lost a couple of big ball carriers, so he will be required to add another string to his bow in that department.

Prediction: I think we'll see another impressive season from the Chiefs but I have a feeling they might just miss out on top spot in the conference.  They will struggle to replace the likes of Williams and I think that might hurt them a little more than they realise. 2nd (6th, losing SFs)
 


Canterbury Crusaders

Head Coach: Todd Blackadder

Captain: Kieran Reid

What happened last year? The Crusaders franchise is synonymous, especially to us Northern Hemisphere types, with the Super Rugby brand, but a disappointing semi-final knock-out against their rivals, the Chiefs, meant it was their 4th season without getting their hands on the big prize, following their defeat in the 2011 final against the Reds.  Despite looking impressive in patches, the Crusaders were also uncharacteristically inconsistent – most profoundly when suffering a bizarre defeat at the hands of the Rebels by 28-19.  They also didn't look as slick as they have done in recent years out wide, despite the inevitable talent they possessed, which is why former centre Aaron Mauger has been brought back in as a coach to get things nicely oiled again.

How do they look this year? Like the Chiefs, not too different, but there are a couple of notable exceptions.  The NZRU has granted Captain Richie McCaw a 6 month sabbatical in the hope of squeezing a couple more years (and a World Cup) out of the veteran campaigner, whilst Zac Guilford is taking a different kind of break after he got so drunk at a house party he allegedly punched another bloke – the wrong bloke, apparently.  The Danny Care of the NZ game, Guilford is now undergoing rehabilitation and the Crusaders won't know when they get one of the game's best finishers back.  That said, they aren't exactly lacking in depth.  With Carter and Dagg fully fit, as well as Read and the highly-rated new boy Shane Christie lurking in the pack, the Crusaders can still launch a big title challenge.

Key Player: Israel Dagg.  The more he gets involved, the better the Crusaders play.  A superb distributor as well as a mesmeric runner, he invariably creates opportunities for others when he joins the line – and this season, the Crusaders will need to be more clinical.

Prediction: Despite a couple of significant losses, the Crusaders are better equipped than most to deal with it.  I think their tricky start – including away games at the Sharks and the Stormers – will be critical.  If they can get into a decent position for when McCaw comes back, they will have a very good shot at the title. 1st (3rd, losing SFs)
 


Otago Highlanders

Head Coach: Jamie Joseph

Captain: Andrew Hore

What happened last year? The Highlanders looked briefly like they may be the real surprise package of the season – and to an extent they were, despite falling away quite badly at the end of the season.  They picked up a superb 7 wins in their first 9 games, and the likes of Adam Thomson, Aaron Smith and Colin Slade all had stand out years – although the team's ability to win when the heat was on was often called into question.

How do they look this year? The Highlanders aren't traditionally the sexiest team, but if you take glance at their roster you quickly realise they have the firepower to spring potentially a big surprise this year.  Ma'a Nonu, Brad Thorn and Tony Woodcock are all seasoned campaigners who have come on board this year, lending good experience to both emerging and established talents such as Slade, Smith, Hosea Gear and Ben Smith.  The pack looks solid but potentially a little on the slow side, and with Thomson, James Haskell and Retallick all departing, some serious questions might be asked of their mobility.

Key Player: Ma'a Nonu.  The giant centre was off form last season and so will want to bounce back for his new team – on his day he can be a game changer.  The Highlanders have a rapid and potent back 3 who have the potential to thrive in open spaces, so Nonu will be relied upon to get the Otago men onto the front foot and draw in defenders.

Prediction: I think this Highlanders team looks pretty strong and may be this year's dark horses.  If concerns about their mobility and strength in depth go unfounded, they should be able to have a decent crack at making the playoffs, but I get the feeling that as the season winds on they might find themselves stretched and just coming short…3rd (7th)

 
Wellington Hurricanes

Head Coach: Mark Hammett

Captain: Conrad Smith

What happened last year? The Hurricanes had a pretty decent season considering they were viewed as no-hopers before the first ball had even been kicked.  Having lost a wealth of high-profile talent, and with alleged tensions between the players and coaching staff, everyone was expecting an implosion – but instead, 'Canes fans were treated to some scintillating attacking rugby, unfortunately counterbalanced by a pretty leaky defence.  In a season where they scored a chart-topping 57 tries, Julian Savea was as big a revelation in Super Rugby as he has been on the international circuit and Conrad Smith fulfilled his captaincy duties with aplomb, holding a fairly inexperienced side together with a series of standout performances.

How do they look this year? Not too shabby.  The core of the team has remained the same and they've tried to bring in some grunt in the form of prop Ben Franks, along with promoting some talent from Wellington to play with the big boys.  I think their backs are still looking pretty slick but I wonder if they've got enough grit and power up front to really make a challenge this year.  I think that teams will look to target their pack and starve them of possession - it's no use having the fancy wingers if they don't see the ball.

Key Player: Conrad Smith.  At times last year he seemed to be a one man team, and now he's got to do it all over again.  Smith's experience will be critical to getting the newbies integrated as quickly as possible and make sure they keep calm heads under pressure.  I'm also looking forward to seeing Julian Savea's younger brother, Ardie, make the step up.  The Wellington loose forward has already got a bit of a cult following and the Canes faithful will be hoping he can replicate his brother's success.
 
Prediction: I think that the Canes will have lost the element of surprise this year and team's will be going out to stifle them.  They'll be competitive, and great to watch at times, but can they win an arm-wrestle in the mud? 4th (11th)

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