Six Nations Preview - Scotland v Ireland

"Scotland" and "Confidence" are not two words we have heard in the same sentence for quite some time.  At least not without the word "lacking" sandwiched in between.  Prior to now, you'd be more likely to hear the words "Pete Doherty" and "Sober" in close proximity to one another than you would be to hear about the cock-sure Scots.  But the last 3 weeks have changed all that.  Although humbled by England, they played some decent rugby at times and they built on this with an impressive victory over Italy the following week.  Furthermore, they seem to have found themselves a real game-breaker in full back Stuart Hogg, who is a real dynamo and lethal with the ball in hand and on the counterattack. 

Ireland on the other hand have gone from quietly confident after a scintillating first half performance against Wales, to being in a minor crisis.  A rare home defeat to an inexperienced England side has shaken them, but the real damage has been inflicted through citings and injuries – prop Cian Healy is banned for introducing his studs to Dan Cole's ankle, whilst key players Johnny Sexton, Simon Zebo, Gordon D'Arcy and Mike McCarthy all have various ailments that prevent them from turning out at Murrayfield.  This is a real test of Irish confidence and of young stand-in stand-off Paddy Jackson, who is preferred to 92-year-old veteran Ronan O'Gara, and this match in Murrayfield may, in many ways, make or break their Championship.

So what hope for the Irish against this resurgent Scottish outfit, and at the daunting Murrayfield of all places?  Well, the Scottish have struggled for possession in their first two games – averaging 38% in both their matches – despite hammering the Italians, and have seen their pack shunted about in the tight exchanges far too often which, especially when you take into account the fact that they have monsters the size of Jim Hamilton and Richie Gray in the engine room, is pretty baffling.  The Irish pack has largely avoided the mini-injury crisis (although Cian Healy is a big loss) and if they can replicate the early dominance they displayed against the Welsh, then there is every chance they will be able to strangle the life out of the Scottish game.  The home-side, conversely, have got to find a way to wind up their big men and get them to hit the breakdown with more aggression in order to release their potent outside backs, or else they will find themselves starved of possession once again – and against this Irish defence, they won't get as much space as they did in their last match.


Scotland Team News

Temporary Coach Scott "the Penguin" Johnson has largely kept the same side which hammered Italy - Geoff Cross is the only change, with the Edinburgh tight-head replacing Euan Murray, whose Christian beliefs mean he won't play on Sundays.  I know a fair few who share the same principles about Sundays, but their reasons are generally more hangover-related.

Starting line up: Stuart Hogg, Sean Maitland, Sean Lamont, Matt Scott, Tim Visser, Ruaridh Jackson, Greig Laidlaw; Ryan Grant, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross, Richie Gray, Jim Hamilton, Robert Harley, Kelly Brown (captain), Johnnie Beattie
Subs: Dougie Hall, Jon Welsh, Moray Low, Alastair Kellock, David Denton, Henry Pyrgos, Duncan Weir, Max Evans

Key Player

Kelly Brown.  The Scotland captain has been in impressive form in both his side's outings so far, making a nuisance of himself at the breakdown and making several critical turnovers.  He'll be relied on to slow Irish ball down and, as captain, he needs to fire his troops up because they have a great chance of beating Ireland this year – it all depends on the work-rate of their pack, however.

 

Ireland Team News

Luke Marshall is another Ulsterman to make his debut on Sunday and he will line-up alongside Ireland's record cap-holder, O'Driscoll, in the centres in Gordon D'Arcy's absence. In total Kidney has made five changes and hands starts to wing Keith Earls (in place of Zebo), second-row O'Callaghan (for Mike McCarthy) and prop Tom Court, who replaces the suspended Cian Healy.

Starting Line up: Rob Kearney, Craig Gilroy, Brian O'Driscoll, Luke Marshall, Keith Earls, Paddy Jackson, Conor Murray; Tom Court, Rory Best, Mike Ross, Donncha O'Callaghan, Donnacha Ryan, Peter O'Mahony, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip (capt)
Subs: Sean Cronin, David Kilcoyne, Declan Fitzpatrick, Devin Toner, Iain Henderson, Eoin Reddan, Ronan O'Gara, Luke Fitzgerald

Key Player

Paddy Jackson.  It's hard enough making your debut but when you're a fly half, you're going to be under twice the pressure.  The young Ulsterman has been in superb form for the Pro12 leaders this season, but he's buckled under pressure before – see his performance against Leinster in the Heineken Cup final last year.  He'll be looking to the experienced heads of O'Driscoll and Heaslip to look after him – but he's going to be a target.


Key Battle

Beattie v Heaslip.  With a brand new 10 and 12 combination for Ireland, it is absolutely critical that the Irish give them the easiest ride possible and that means making yards and providing front-foot ball.  The Irish captain has disappointed so far this campaign, being ineffective on the carry and making elementary mistakes you just don't expect of a player of his calibre.  It's time he stepped up and got his side going forward – his fly half will be relying on this.  Equally, Beattie needs to make Paddy Jackson's debut as uncomfortable as possible.  We've seen what he's all about with a couple of big charges, but he still tends to go missing in matches.  Here, he needs to be getting his hands on the ball as much as possible and hurtling straight into young Jackson if Scotland are to make the most of his inexperience.

Head to Head

Ireland have won on their last five visits to Murrayfield in the Six Nations

Scotland's only win in the last 11 Six Nations matches with Ireland was in 2010 at Croke Park, where they won 23 - 20.

Scotland have only won 2 of their last 12 Six Nations games, and seek their first back-to-back wins since 2001.

Prediction

I think this will be incredibly tight and could go either way – and we'll hopefully see some exciting rugby from two ambitious sides, as well.  I just feel that the Scottish pack has not done enough so far to take control of possession and whilst Italy didn't punish them for it, Ireland will.  Despite the inexperience in the backline, I think we'll see the Irish sneak this one.  Ireland by 5.