Match Preview - Ireland v England

Who doesn't love a good trip to Dublin?  The sights, the friendly people, the extortionately priced Guinness and the almost reckless enthusiasm of locals to have a great night out, no matter what day of the week it is.  In fact, the only people who aren't massive fans of Dublin are members of the English rugby team over the last decade (at least when they're on playing duties, anyway).  Ireland have won their last four 6 Nations matches there against England and, in fact, have won all but 2 of their previous 9 Championship games against last year's runners up.  The English are also possibly the only people who genuinely detest the sight of Brian O'Driscoll.  OK, most countries have been irritated by him one way or another at some point as he masterminds another victory for the Irish, but the English probably loathe playing BOD more than any other.  And it's not just because of the smirk on his smug, squishy face when he's beating England, it's because he hasn't been in an Irish side that's lost to England for almost a decade; the 3 times England have beaten the Irish since 2003, O'Driscoll has been absent.

Ireland will be delighted with their win at the Millennium Stadium but concerned at their second half collapse in terms of keeping possession.  Although their defence was impressive against Wales, with the likes of O'Brien and Healy putting in astonishing tackle counts, their ball carrying was pretty ineffectual at times, especially from the back row with Heaslip – the Irish captain and number 8 – only making 3 metres from 6 carries.  He will need to do much better on Sunday if Ireland are to get front foot ball.  The men in green will also be worried that they struggled to live with Wales when the home side upped their intensity and, given the speed England played with against Scotland, will need to ensure that they slow the ball down effectively.  They are masters of the "choke-tackle" – holding players up off the ground to form a maul – and will need to ensure they implement this for 80 minutes, and not just the first 40, if they are to get the win.

England on the other hand will take some comfort from the fact that they left a lot of tries on the field against Scotland, despite coasting to a borderline-impressive victory.  Their new brand of high-speed, offload-based rugby is, without doubt, great to see – certainly an improvement on their performances of 4 years ago, which were about as enjoyable to watch as an Anne Widdecombe strip-tease – but does lead to a lot of turnovers through attempted "miracle passes".  However, the only way England will improve their perception on when is and isn't the right time to chuck it about, is to stick with their formula and improve with each game.  Much of the talk this week has been dominated, as usual, by who will make up the English centre partnership – but this time there is a difference.  Instead of hearing fans arguing about which players they don't want anywhere near the England team – and then watching on with numb despondency as they are duly selected – the talk has all been positive, in terms of who might be more effective in this particular game or partnership.  If England can keep their tempo up and play in the right areas whilst frustrating the Irish efforts at slowing the ball down, they will have a good chance of sneaking a victory.

 

Ireland Team News

Declan Kidney has named an unchanged squad to the one that defeated Wales in a bruising encounter at the Millennium Stadium, with Gordon D'Arcy, Peter O'Mahony, Brian O'Driscoll and Keith Earls all recovering from minor knocks.  O'Driscoll this week commented that he will play as long as his body holds together – he may need some superglue after this weekend.  After 50 minutes of facing the hard tackling Brad Barritt he will most likely have endure looking up to see wrecking ball Manu Tuilagi trotting out to line up against him.  Rather like wrestling a buffalo only to see  rhinoceros emerge from the shrubbery.

Starting Line Up: R Kearney; C Gilroy, B O’Driscoll (capt), G D’Arcy, S Zebo; J Sexton, C Murray; C Healy, R Best, M Ross, M McCarthy, D Ryan, P O’Mahony, S O’Brien, J Heaslip

Replacements: S Cronin, D Kilcoyne, D Fitzpatrick, D O'Callaghan, C Henry, E Reddan, R O'Gara, K Earls.

Key Player

Jamie Heaslip.  The Ireland Captain put in a good shift at the breakdown last Saturday and was key to his sides momentum in the first half, but his ball carrying was a tad lethargic and he was bounced off a couple of tackles, though he generally defended well.  The Irish man will need a bigger game against in England side who play with a lot of speed and aggression and he will be relied on to steady the ship and make some metres with the ball.  This is a real litmus test on his skills, not just as a player, but as a captain.

England Team News

Stuart Lancaster makes just one change to the starting line-up, with James Haskell replacing Ben Morgan, who has a sprained ankle.  Haskell will start at 6 whilst last week's blindside Tom Wood reverts to the unfamiliar position of 8.  Haskell's place on the bench is taken by Leicester's rotund kiwi Thomas Waldrom.  The only other change sees Manu Tuilagi replace David Strettle in the replacements, meaning that Lancaster has resisted the call to throw the young bowling ball of destruction straight back in.  I can see why this is the smart option, with the Leicester man short of match fitness, but expect to see Twelvetrees and Tuilagi linking up in the centres before too long – especially as Tuilagi will bring an impact off the bench in very literal sense of the word. 

Starting Line Up: A Goode; C Ashton, B Barritt, B Twelvetrees, M Brown; O Farrell, B Youngs; J Marler, T Youngs, D Cole, J Launchbury, G Parling, J Haskell, C Robshaw (capt), T Wood.

Replacements: M Tuilagi, T Flood, D Care, M Vunipola, D Hartley, D Wilson, C Lawes, T Waldrom.

Key Player

Chris Robshaw.  We all know about how good Sean O'Brien was last week but it will be Robshaw's job to make sure the big Leinsterman doesn't slow England's ball down or gain any momentum with the ball in hand – which is easier said than done when the Irish 7 is the size of a small military vehicle.  The England's captain work as a link man is absolutely critical to make sure runners are running into gaps, as opposed to the green-coated strongmen who will be aiming to choke the life out of the English attack.  This battle could be viewed as a straight shoot-out for a lions shirt, but I think on current form we could see them starting on both flanks in 6 months time.

Key Battle

There are so many mouth-watering battles over the park, which are not only critical to this game but also for Lions selection, with both squad and starting places up for grabs.  Think Sexton v Farrell, Gilroy v Ashton, O'Brien v Robshaw or O'Driscoll v Tuilagi (when he gets on).  In the front row, it will be fascinating who wins the battle between the 2 dead-certs for Lions starting spots in Cian Healy and Dan Cole, but I think the key battle will be on the other side of the scrum between Mike Ross and Joe Marler.  Last year the Irish were humiliated in the set piece, largely thanks to the perennially  injured Alex Corbisiero and the fact Mike Ross went off injured after 30 minutes.  Ross will have a point to prove; but so will Marler, who's scrummaging has often been called into question but is now well-developed.  If Marler can get a nudge on Ross, expect Cole to do the rest and get a platform from which they can both attack and starve the Irish of possession.

Head to Head

·         Ireland have won their last 4 matches at the Aviva Stadium

·         Although England have only won 3 of their last 10 games against Ireland, they are on something of a 'roll' having won the last 2 meetings between the nations (including a 2011 World Cup warm up game – England's only win in Dublin since 2003).

·         Brian O'Driscoll has won his last 8 matches against England, starting all of them and scoring 3 tries and a drop goal in the process.

 

Prediction

This is, on paper, an incredibly tight game that could go either way.  Both sides have humiliated each other at home in their last two Championship meetings, but both have addressed the shortcomings exposed in their respective defeats.  I think playing at home could be a key factor, with many of the England team not having pleasant memories of the Aviva Stadium, so I'm going to lean towards the Irish squeaking out a win in a frantic game by 3 points.