Six Nations Preview - France v Wales

What a difference a week makes.  This time 7 days ago, Wales were reigning Grand Slam champions and Triple Crown holders, whilst the French were tipped as pre-tournament favourites to sweep aside all comers as they sauntered their way to the title.  Now, we have a Welsh side who haven’t won for almost a year, suffering 8 losses on the bounce, and a French side who had their ambitions shattered at the first hurdle after succumbing to tame defeat in Italy, their second consecutive loss in Rome.

 

A member of the French team, 5 minutes before kick off against Italy last week.

 For the French, it was simply a lazy performance.  Interspersed with moments of genius, when the pressure came on, Les Bleus merely shrugged their shoulders and shuffled almost begrudgingly from breakdown to breakdown, as if they’d had a bit too much pinot noir and brie during halftime.  Their focus this week has to be on winning the contact area, where they were blown away at times by Italy - which means Dusautoir has to step up to the levels he’s set himself in previous years, lead by example and raise the French intensity when required.  Most importantly of all, the men in blue have to get the volatile Parisian crowd on their side and put a score on the board early in order to feed off the fragile Welsh confidence.  They have a score to settle too, after they were edged out in a tense encounter between the sides last year.

Wales are now with their backs to the wall and they couldn’t have asked for a harsher environment in which to get back to winning ways.  In an odd way, though, it is the perfect game for them – there is no pressure; they are expected to lose and they might as well have a “real crack” as Ryan Jones put it earlier this week.  There are reasons for optimism though.  With Justin Tipuric in for injured captain Sam Warburton, a change has been enforced which perhaps should have been made anyway, with Tipuric injecting tempo and energy into an otherwise flat Welsh performance last week.  Coupled with the return of big ball carriers such as Richard Hibbard and Ryan Jones, Wales can look to get the French backpeddling and doubting themselves after their shambolic display in Rome.

 

French Team News

Phillipe Saint-Andre seems to have adopted an unusual selection policy in not selecting the best players in their best positions, something that his predecessor Marc Lievremont specialised in.  That means ignoring Trinh-Duc and Morgan Parra, and continuing to isolate Wesley Fofana on the wing.  Out of the 2 changes he has made, one is enforced – with Jocelin Suta coming in for injured captain Pascal Pape – whilst the other sees the giant centre Mathieu Bastareaud replace Florian Fritz, who drops to the bench.

Starting Line Up: Y Huget, W Fofana, M Bastareaud, M Mermoz, B Fall, F Michalak, M Machenaud; Y Forestier, D Szarzewski,  N Mas, J Suta, Y Maestri, F Ouedraogo, T Dusautoir (capt), L Picamoles.

Replacements : B Kayser, V Debaty, L Ducalon, R Taofifenua, D Chouly, M Parra, F Trinh-Duc, F Fritz.

Key Player

Matheiu Basteraud.  The giant barrel of a Toulon centre may look like a chubby basset hound chewing a wasp, but he’ll certainly add some of the directness Les Bleus missed last week.  His job will be to outmuscle, nullify and break down the not-insignificant figures of Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies in the French centres.

 

Wales Team News

Rob Howley makes 3 changes to the side that lost at the Millenium Stadium last Saturday.  Workhorse Ryan Jones steps into the blindside flank, whilst fellow Osprey Richard Hibbard replaces the injured Matthew Rees at hooker.  Justin Tipuric gets the start so many fans have been calling for, replacing Captain Sam Warburton at 7, after the Cardiff Blues man suffered a stinger injury against Ireland.

Starting Line Up: L Halfpenny; A Cuthbert, J Davies, J Roberts, G North; D Biggar, M Phillips; G Jenkins, R Hibbard, A Jones, A Coombs, I Evans, R Jones (capt), J Tipuric, T Faletau.

Replacements: K Owens, P James, C Mitchell, L Reed, A Shingler, L Williams, J Hook , S Williams.

Key Player

Ryan Jones.  Wales will need their stand in skipper to lead from the front and add some punch on the carry that was all too often left to Faletau last week.  He’ll also need to make sure the team go out with the second half positives from their match against Ireland at the front of their minds and not allow self-doubt to creep in, even if they go behind early on.

 

Key Battle

The clash of the opensides is sure to be a cracker.  Tipuric looks like he may be the next ‘classic’ openside, quick to the breakdown and lethal over the ball, whilst Dusautoir is a defensive machine – stopping runners on the gainline time and again and pressurising the opposition into making mistakes.  Tipuric impressed in his cameo last week but will need to prove he has the engine for 80 minutes whilst Dusautoir has to rediscover his leadership skills that went walkabout last week as the French imploded.  Whoever stops the other side from getting go-forward ball will give their team a great shot at the win.

 

Head to Head

·         France have now lost their last 4 matches in the 6 Nations, their worst run for nearly 40 years.

·         Wales have won just twice against the French in the last 9 encounters

·         Wales have now lost 5 consecutive matches at home for the first time in their history

Prediction

This game will come down to who gets the other doubting themselves first.  Both sides will come out fired up, and I think we’ll see (or I hope we’ll see) 2 sides really taking it to each other.  Wales will put up a good fight, but I think that home advantage will be crucial and we’ll see the French take an 8 point win.