Recoveries can be misleading – just ask Italy. After blitzing the pre-tournament favourites, France, in Rome, they then fell at the apparently more-straightforward hurdle when it came to defeating Scotland, going down to a heavy loss at Murrayfield. The Welsh will be well aware of this and will be keen to avoid a similar situation. After an appalling run of 8 losses on the bounce (with the last 5 coming at home), which saw them go from champs to chumps and their outstanding flanker – nailed on as a "dead cert" for Lions captaincy a year ago – reduced to getting splinters up his backside and stating that he's "happy" for his replacement, a solid performance against a dire French side in Paris saw them get their Six Nations campaign up and running.
Were Wales that good in Paris? No. Could they be good? Hell yes. Look through their team and despite various
injuries you see Lions candidate after Lions candidate. In Paris they were still horrendously blunt
and looked short of confidence but hopefully, from their point of view, the win
will allow them throw the shackles off and run as freely as a lamb being chased
by a horny farmer through the Welsh meadows, which is when the Welsh look at
their most dangerous (rugby-wise, that is).
And they probably have the ideal game with which to consolidate their
performance – against the Italians, despite not always having the best of
success in Rome in the past (see this appalling/hilariously bad display of
refereeing from 2007).
Now, the Italians in Rome are a difficult prospect, but the Welsh will be buoyed by the fact that Sergio Parisse will be missing – for the rest of the tournament in fact – after directing some fairly select language in Queen's English at a referee whilst playing for Stade Francais. Yes, rugby is a team game, and yes, one person isn't bigger than the team, bla bla bla, but there is no question that this is a huge loss for the Azzurri. Absolutely colossal in the match against the French, Parisse is the glue that binds the team together – he runs, passes, offloads, tackles, rucks, mauls and even kicks on occasion – and his absence will mean that the Azzurri will be searching for somebody else to provide the inspiration. I'm sure veterans like Castrogiovanni will step up, but I can't see Castro roaming the wide channels or firing out miss-passes quite as effectively as Parisse can. His loss could be a tournament-changer for the Italians.
Italy Team News
Fly-half Luciano Orquera and scrum-half Tobias Botes are
dropped to the bench in the wake of the 34-10 defeat to Scotland in their last
outing with Kristopher Burton and Edoardo Gori handed the chance to impress.
There is also a change in the second row with Antonio Pavanello preferred to
Quintin Geldenhuys, who is also named among the replacements, while Manoa
Vosawai steps in to fill the void at No.8 left by Parisse.
Starting Line up: Andrea
Masi; Giovanbattista Venditti, Tommaso Benvenuti, Gonzalo Canale, Luke McLean;
Kristopher Burton, Edoardo Gori; Ratu Manoa Vosawai, Simone Favaro, Alessandro
Zanni; Francesco Minto, Antonio Pavanello; Martin Castrogiovanni (capt),
Leonardo Ghiraldini, Andrea Lo Cicero
Subs: Davide
Giazzon, Alberto De Marchi, Lorenzo Cittadini, Quintin Geldenhuys, Paul
Derbyshire, Tobias Botes, Luciano Orquera, Gonzalo Garcia
Key Player
Martin Castrogiovanni.
Without Parisse, the Leicester tighthead takes over the captaincy and will
become one of the men that the Azzurri will look to for go forward and
inspiration. His area of expertise, the
scrum, is also crucial, as it's one area that the home side may be able to get
a nudge on – if he helps the Italians accomplish dominance here, he will go a
long way to getting his side going.
Wales Team News
Rob Howley was so chuffed just to get a win that he
announced he was keeping the same starting XV for the Italy game roughly 5
minutes after the full time whistle against France a fortnight ago. The only changes take place on the bench,
where veteran Alun Wyn Jones returns from injury and a fit-again Sam Warburton,
recovered from a shoulder problem, takes Aaron Shingler's place among the
replacements.
Starting Line up: Leigh
Halfpenny, Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, George North, Dan
Biggar, Mike Phillips; Gethin Jenkins, Richard Hibbard, Adam Jones, Andrew
Coombs, Ian Evans, Ryan Jones (captain), Justin Tipuric, Toby Faletau
Subs: Ken Owens,
Paul James, Craig Mitchell, Alun Wyn Jones, Sam Warburton, Lloyd Williams,
James Hook, Scott Williams.
Key Player
George North. The big
winger showed all his finishing class with a well-taken try that proved
decisive against France, but he has to start getting involved more. When he has the ball, he beats more tacklers
and makes more yards per carry than anyone else, but the problem for Wales is
that he doesn't get his hands on the ball enough. Expect to see him popping up in midfield a
lot more this weekend.
Simone Favaro v Justin Tipuric. The Azzurri open-side has been an unsung hero
for the Italians in their first two games, winning turnovers and tackling with
a ferocity that has set an example to his teammates – he was a real standout in
the defeat against Scotland. Likewise,
Tipuric has come into the fray for Wales and been a bundle of energy with his
support play and efforts at the breakdown.
Favaro will be looking to disrupt the Welsh possession as much as
possible and it will be up to Tipuric to take him out of the game – if Favaro
gets on top, then Wales will struggle again.
Head to Head
·
Wales will have won 4 consecutive away matches
in the 6 Nations for the first time in the 6 Nations if they defeat the
Italians on Saturday
·
Italy last beat Wales in 2007 in Rome
·
Wales have won 16 of the 19 encounters between
the 2 countries, losing 2 and drawing the remainder in Cardiff in 2006.
Prediction
Before Parisse was ruled out, I would have given
the nod to the Italians because of the Welsh's poor record in Rome and the fact
that they still weren't impressive in Paris.
But with Parisse out, I think the Welsh will just about nick it –
especially if they can get an early try and get their confidence up. The Italians have been caught defending too
narrow on several occasions, and I think the Welsh's style of play will exploit
this. Wales by 7.
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