Super XV Big Match Preview - Reds v Waratahs

There are some rivalries in sport that are so fierce it goes beyond being just a game – where honour is everything, domination is crucial and the result determines your mood – and potentially your relationship – for the rest of the month.  I’m talking about England v Scotland, Manchester United v Manchester City, Liverpool v Everton and Stoneygate 4^th XV v Aylestone St James Veterans.  Serious stuff.  But arguably on top of the pile in terms of sheer brutality, comes a war from down under between the reds and the blues – between Queensland and New South Wales.  In our little runt of a sister code – Rugby League – the battle is known as State of Origin, and is the biggest annual sporting event in Australia.  And it’s easy to see why, when you get scenes like this:

But that passion and rivalry isn’t just limited to League.  In Union, there’s been some stunning matches between the Reds and the Waratahs, and perhaps none more dramatic than last season’s opening day encounter, where Reds winger Dom Shipperley snatched victory with a sensational solo try.  The Waratahs, like so many seasons before, talked a big talk before 2012 but ultimately failed to deliver, although that in part was due to the absence of so many key individuals for long periods of the season, with Berrick Barnes, Dan Vickerman, Drew Mitchell and Rocky Elsom being particularly missed.  Now, once again, they go in with the expectation of the state behind them, but with new coach Michael Cheika and some genuine X-Factor in the forms of flanker Michael Hooper and NRL/AFL convert Israel Folou, there is a genuine feeling that they can overtake the Reds this year as the dominant side in Australian Rugby.

The Reds meanwhile, will have other plans.  They were poor against the Brumbies last week, far too flat and static in attack, and not aggressive enough when it came to hitting the breakdown – they missed Scott Higginbotham in that regard.  The Reds are also missing leaders such as James Horwill and Will Genia – world class operators who would be missed by any side – but the general feeling is that last week was just an off-day that can be put down to rustiness, and the real Reds still have enough about them to see off any challengers to their Aussie crown.  But how will they handle a wound-up Waratahs outfit?  We’ll have to wait and see...

 

Reds Team News

The Reds make two changes from the side that disappointed against the Brumbies, with highly rated youngster Chris F'Sautia coming in for Aidan Toua at outside centre, and Ed O'Donoghue replacing Adam Wallace-Harrison at lock.

Starting Line up: Mike Harris, Dom Shipperley, Chris F’Sautia, Ben Tapuai, Digby Ioane, Quade Cooper, Ben Lucas; Jake Schatz, Liam Gill, Ed Quirk, Ed O’Donoghue, Rob Simmons, James Slipper (capt), Saia Faingaa, Greg Holmes.

Subs: James Hanson, Albert Anae, Adam Wallace-Harrison, Jarrad Butler, Nick Frisby, Jono Lance, Luke Morahan.

Key Player

Digby Ione.  Despite a blunt team performance that yielded a loss, Digby looked in decent nick – making 50 more metres with the ball in hand than any other player on either side, and beating more players too.  Unfortunately, he also lost possession the most due to the fact that, on occasion, it seems like he has a pair of oiled fish for hands – if he can work on his handling and get involved in the game, then he is a key attacking weapon for the Reds.

 

Waratahs Team News

Israel Folau will make his Super Rugby debut on Saturday when he pulls on the number 15 against the Reds. Youngster Tom Kingston starts on the left wing whilst fly-half Bernard Foley has recovered from an ankle injury to guide the backline from 10. Up front, prop Jeremy Tilse makes his first Super Rugby start.

Starting Line up: Israel Folau, Drew Mitchell, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Tom Carter, Tom Kingston, Bernard Foley, Brendan McKibbin, Wycliff Palu, Michael Hooper, Dave Dennis (capt), Kane Douglas, Sitaleki Timani, Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Jeremy Tilse.

Subs: John Ulugia, Benn Robinson, Paddy Ryan, Mitchell Chapman, Lopeti Timani, Matt Lucas, Ben Volavola

Key Player

Israel Folou.  Although the new addition is starting at full back, he has allegedly been given an almost free (or ‘roaming’) role by Cheika.  Now whether this is because he is prodigiously talented and needs to get the ball as much as possible, or because he doesn’t know where to stand anyway, is a question nobody can wait to see answered.  There’s no doubting his talent as a League player, but how quickly will he adapt to Union?

 

Key Battle

Liam Gill v Michael Hooper.  With Pocock out injured for parts of last year, these two really stepped up and made a name of themselves.  Gill may have edged it in the Super Rugby season, with more turnovers per game than anyone else, but Hooper has made real waves on the international scene, particularly impressing on Australia’s European tour in November.  Both these men are key to building momentum for their sides, with speed to the breakdown being absolutely critical; the quicker either flanker can secure their own ball, the faster the service will be the exciting backlines they have outside them.

Prediction

With the Waratahs still being an unknown quantity, I’m going to give the Reds the nod this week.  Despite their poor performance, they will be 1 week less rusty than the Waratahs and will be playing at Suncorp Stadium, which is always a difficult place to go and win as an away side.  Reds by 9 points.


Let’s have a breeze through the rest of the weekend’s fixtures –

Highlanders v Chiefs – Another big game this weekend.  Chiefs are the reigning champions and favourites for the Kiwi conference, so I think they’ll edge it – but with the Highlanders being my tip for dark horses this year, I wouldn’t be surprised at a reverse.  Chiefs by 4.

Rebels v Brumbies – The 2 victorious sides from the opening round meet in Melbourne, where the Rebels will be hoping to create a fortress as they continue their improvement.  This Brumbies side looks aggressive and fast though, and I think they’ll dominate the Rebels' pack – negating their attacking threat out wide.  Brumbies by 10.

Bulls v Stormers – The Bulls don’t quite seem to have the firepower they possessed a few years ago, whilst the Stormers seem to look ominous year on year.  I just get the feeling this Bulls side has stalled slightly and their big game players – such as Morne Steyn and Pierre Spies – haven’t stood out for a while.  Stormers by 5.

Hurricanes v Blues – Both sides surprised last season, with the Hurricanes coming good despite the loss of so many individuals and the Blues engineering an absolute turd of a season, despite having some serious class on their books.  The only difference now is that the Hurricanes are high on confidence and the Blues have lost most of their first-rate players.  It has to be Hurricanes by 15.

Cheetahs v Sharks – I think the Sharks look really good this season and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them go all the way.  The Cheetahs, meanwhile, have lost inspirational flanker Juan Smith just before the season and it’s hard to gauge just how much that will affect them.  Sharks by 10.

Kings v Force – The Kings’ first dabble at Super XV Rugby has thrown up probably their best chance to get a win this season.  The Force are lacking in star-quality and, despite a gutsy performance last week, confidence, but the Kings are such an unknown entity – with a host of Super Rugby debutants – that it’s hard to see anything but an away win.  Force by 8.